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………..but The Tother One surely isn’t worth his rating of 145? In fact, looking back through his form, I’m absolutely astonished as to the handicapper’s reaction to his third in the Albert Bartlett.
Hardly matters in the context of the World Hurdle though, Equitrack, given he’s going novice chasing this season (entered over 3m at Exeter tomorrow).
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I was merely pointing out that the Wolrd Hurdle claims of the likes of Pettifour are, in my view, questionable in light of the handicapper’s dealings with The Tother One, rather than the latter having little chance himself.
Maybe so, Equitrack, but it’s a bit too black-and-white an interpretation for me.
If I read you right, you reckon Nenuphar Collonges holds the collective form down, because he was only rated 135 going into the Spa Hurdle.
Personally, I think there’s a strong case to be made that the handicapper had under-estimated Nenuphar Collonges by some way prior to that race – most likely because two of his three runs in getting a mark, were over an inadequate 21f, on ground that may not have suited anyway.
On his only 3m form prior to the Festival (where he finished in front of Souffleur and Gone To Lunch, in receipt of 7lbs) he was probably thrown-in off 135 in the Spa.
Whether that in itself enhances Pettifour’s chances in a World Hurdle is a different matter, of course, but in general terms, I don’t think the ratings of the respective horses are a million miles out, to be honest.
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Perhaps so, but the handicapper’s reaction to the Albert Bartlett just didn’t seem to make sense to me, even allowing for the fact that he may have underestimated Nenuphar Collonges.
The Tother One went in to the race fourth best in at the weights and I struggle to see how he can be raised 2lb for not beating horses he technically should have (had 8lb in hand of the winner, 13lb in hand on the runner-up and 13lb in hand of the fourth) and the winner raised 13lb on a very strict, literal interpretation of the form. The waters are muddied further when you consider the 123-rated five-year-old in second and Seigemaster, three quarters of a length behind the Nicholls horse, who was raised only 9lb.
I might be finding something where nothing exists, but I’d be keen to take on Pettifour and co. all season.
Fair enough, Equitrack, though I would suggest some caution.
Your argument seems to be predicated on the handicapper having correctly assessed all of the placed horses prior to the race. A quick look at Liskennet’s form shows that it is markedly better over 3m on top-of-the-ground, than it is over 20f – which is where the UK handicapper would appear to have derived his original rating from.
Whether it is appropriate or not, TTO’s rating might have been raised because the horse ran around when he hit the front, and the handicapper may have mused that he was value for a couple more lbs. Who knows – Phil Smith’s calcuations are often a mystery to me.
I would have thought, in light of Rippling Ring and Pierrot Lunaire’s exploits over the weekend, the yard will rather be hoping Celestial Halo turns out to be their Champion Hurdle horse for the season.
I’ve said it somewhere else but Kasbah Bliss is all over the winner of this for me. I shall be investing in him slowly over the winter. His recent flat runs have only strengthened my view and he is the only AP proposition I would be interested in for the championship races.
I would have thought, in light of Rippling Ring and Pierrot Lunaire’s exploits over the weekend, the yard will rather be hoping Celestial Halo turns out to be their Champion Hurdle horse for the season.
There is that Grassy, but I think that to aim Celestial Halo for the Champion hurdle, Nicholls would have to be relying on bad ground again. It was the ground that won him the triumph hurdle, because he was able to turn the race into a feat of stamina, however on good ground at aintree this was impossible against binocular. There are some really good 2 milers about who on good ground can muster speeed that Celestial Halo just hasnt got. Upped in trip Celestial Halo should be much more versatile pacewise as he is essentially a stayer.
Missed Rippling Rings race as was busy and will have to watch it back but Pierrot Lunaire definitely didnt look a shadow of the horse he was last year yesterday, and I would suspect he wasnt anywhere near 100%, he didnt really look to be travelling from early on, I suspected that possibly the run was a prep for a later target, but then at the same time Ruby was riding him like defeat was out of the question.
The next few months will be interesting, as Nicholls says he has decided to start Celestial Halo at 2 miles, but thinks he wants further, I suspect that much will depend on how he goes in that first run over 2 miles.
Maybe you’re right Bulwark, though the Champion Hurdle is often won by horses who are capable of getting much further than a bare 2m – it’s much more of a test than anything Aintree can provide over an identical trip.
With the same yard already having both Mobaasher and Elusive Dream touted for staying hurdles, I’d personally be surprised if they went that route with Celestial Halo, though it certainly isn’t impossible.
Elusive Dream is the obvious Nicholls contender for the world hurdle as it stands at present, but am just more hoping Celestial Halo may become a World Hurdle contender as the season progresses, as IMO he doesnt jump well enough to go chasing and if Nicholls does decide to up him in trip over hurdles as he has already indicated towards then the world hurdle is the most obvious target and I think he has the class to make his presence felt.
Elusive Dream and Kasbah Bliss are definitely classy individuals but have no shortage of fans, and so this may detract from any value that may be had on them.
Rippling Ring showed very little encouragement to keep him hurdling. I wouldn’t be worried about Pierre L he’s a very good horse and will come good but C. Halo wouldn’t win the CH if he started now. True he won the Triumph but against a horse who ran up a squence of wins which I always thought were nothing to write home about.
Don’t forget Binocular ran a great race against his elders, on similar or the same ground and was reportedly short of a gallop. He walked all over the Nichols horse at Aintree and I have no doubt would have won the Triumph just as easily had JP and co not messed Nicky Henderson about.
I think if you are looking to the Nichols yard for a champion Hurdle horse then PL is the only possible candidate. They felt he was unlucky against Binocular..can’t for the life of me think why…but I don’t think there is any secret about the fact he is their only and best hope for the big one.
I dont agree that Bincoluar would have won the triumph fists. I think Celestial Halo just turned it into such a stayathon that Binocular would have run out of puff. Remember that Binocular was outstayed up the hill against Captain Cee Bee in a race that was much slower than the triumph hurlde. The time of the Triumph hurdle was a stand out time for the whole weeks racing.
I think that it would be more likely that Binocular could have won the 2008 Champ Hurdle than the Triumph as the Champ Hurdle was (by recollection, may need to double check that) slower than the Supreme Novice and would have been much more suited to Binoculars speed.
Rippling Ring ran well in last years Supreme Novice, and in his prep run for that race and so I would suspect Nicholls hasnt had either him or Pierrot Lunaire at their best yet this season. I would rather judge both horses on their form of last season than what they have shown so far in this one. Squadron wouldnt get near Pierrot Lunaire last season and IMO wasnt any more impressive when beating PL than he was in his best runs last year, so it looked like PL was well below his best.
I say "Elusive Dream". My old internet mucker rory says "Pettifour".
Personally, I’m not convinced by rory’s argument.
What I am convinced of, however, is that the mighty Inglis Drever will find a four-timer beyond him, Kasbah Bliss will find the carriage of Christophe Pieux beyond him, and Blazing Bailey will find handling the track beyond him.
Hopefully round one in this argument will be settled on Saturday as Elusive Dream and Pettifour are due to meet in the West Yorkshire Hurdle; I know that Pettifour needs to improve to even beat Elusive Dream on their best form, and significantly so to win a World Hurdle but he has gone a long way in a short time and I happen to think he has such potential for further improvement that I’ve had a decent bet for him to win come March. I suspect that a thrashing at the hands of the Findlay beast on Saturday will see him swiftly move to the novice chasing division, but I’ll simply back him to win the RSA Chase instead.
It’s very early days, but Pettifour and the Paul Nicholls trained runner-up will need to improve to beat The Drever or Kasbah Bliss in March.
I’m not convinced Mobaasher went through with his effort and a tougher rival would’ve secured victory.
Inglis Drever doesn’t have time on his side, but he’s a tough nut to crack at Cheltenham and won’t be given a hard campaign.
I can’t imagine Howard Johnson quaking in his boots after today’s efforts, especially with No Refuge a close-up third.
Having went to Wetherby with Pettifour as my number one bet before jumping off thinking conditions were bang against him, I have to put myself firmly in the "impressed" camp. Admittedly he’s beaten a proper scoundrel in Mobasheer (nothing to do with Thomas from where I was standing), but that’s the first marker set for the WH IMO.
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