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As big a fan of the horse as I am, to suggest that he’s up to troubling the likes of Kasbah Bliss, Punchestowns, Big Buck’s and even Blazing Bailey after such a prolonged (forced) absence is far fetched to say the least.
Kasbah Bliss’ run on Saturday has really set up the World Hurdle nicely now. Though visually very impressive, I am not sure that KB achieved quite enough in winning to justify his odds for the WH being cut to near evens with some bookies. Nevertheless, he proved his fitness and provided a reminder of the qualities that make for a really good specialist staying hurdler – travels smoothly, quick and economical over the hurdles, maintains position well, genuine and responsive, and has the finishing speed to see off the opposition where required.
Marginally, I prefer KB for the WH, though I probably wouldn’t be increasing my stake on him now at the revised skinny odds. After Saturday’s race, I would see KB more as a 2/1 shot than near evens. I accept that his turn of foot may be the decisive factor in the race. While Punchestowns and Big Buck’s are no slouches, I don’t think they have quite the acceleration that KB has. Sprinting home to win against inferior opposition off no more than a sound pace on Saturday is one thing, of course, whether KB can reproduce such a decisive finish in the WH on a stiffer track where the pace of the race might be a notch or two higher is another matter.
Someone earlier in this thread suggested, wisely I thought, that there may be question marks about all four at the top of the WH betting in terms of just how well they see out the trip and whether they can be seen as genuine stayers. Clearly, KB saw out the trip well enough in the WH last season, but just how well he stayed has to be open to question given that he had the advantage at the start of the run in but was unable to find sufficient to repel Inglis Drever after that. KB battled up the run in up to a point, and he certainly didn’t fold tamely, but neither did he find enough reserves to use his turn of foot to hold off the much older rival.
I accept there can be different explanations for why KB didn’t hang on to win the WH last season. Possibly he got to the front too early for the type of horse he is and, for sure, Inglis Drever swooping late up the hill at Cheltenham was a mighty force and very difficult for any horse in front to repel. There is just enough doubt in my mind though about how strongly KB is likely to finish at the end of a strongly run WH, to just be wary of going in again on the horse at his revised (skinny) odds. I do recognise though that KB is probably reaching his peak this season and may be an even stronger horse stamina wise than we saw last season. And I wouldn’t necessarily bet on any of the other realistic contenders for the WH (Fair Along, Big Buck’s and Punchestowns) lasting home any more strongly than KB if the pace of the race happens to be pretty demanding. They have all, to some extent, got questions to answer about how much they can find at the business end of a strongly run stayers hurdle on a stiff track under championship conditions.
The pace didn’t seem particularly strong in last season’s WH, though comparisons with previous renewals are not so easy to make. If there is to be a bit more pace this time (which there probably needs to be if there is to be a chance of running KB’s turn of foot out of him), I wonder where it will come from? Likely front runners in the early stages of the race (Hardy Eustace, Catch Me – if they turn up) are not really proven stayers over the trip and so I am not sure they could be relied on to inject that much pace into the race. Similarly, given the relative youth and inexperience of Big Buck’s and Punchestowns, I would imagine the respective trainers would be wary of making too much use of them in terms of really trying to push the pace out in order to make the race an even stiffer test of stamina than it normally is. Fair Along was a strong front runner over shorter distances, but understandably has been ridden with more restraint over the longer trip. If the pace of the race turns out to be no more than fairly average for the WH, and assuming the ground is no worse than marginally soft, I think KB may well be capable of putting in a stronger finish than he did ln the WH last season and that should prove decisive in seeing off the horses that don’t have his flat speed. If we get a real slog (due to wet ground and/or stronger than usual pace in the early and/or middle parts of the race), it is much more up in the air who will win, I feel, and a saver on Big Buck’s at what is now a quite attractive price (around 7/1 on the exchanges) might be prudent in case the ground/race conditions are not ideal for KB. In fact, as the odds on Big Buck’s have gone out, he is just about backable each way for any KB backers looking for a sensible saver.
Hypothetical of course, but does anyone else believe Kasbah Bliss would have a chance in the champion hurdle on testing ground?
If I owned the horse, i’d keep my options open…
I
still
think so! – infact, I think he’d win it in any conditions IMO.
Soft ground would be a mere bonus
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Nice post, riverman.
Kasbah Bliss, on his flat exploits alone, has clearly improved since his defeat by Inglis Drever and I really can’t see anything troubling him now. Aside from his ability to jump quickly and cleanly, he travels supremely well and I don’t know that a strong pace will go against him. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll stay every inch of the trip, and that rare blend of speed and stamina should be enough (Punchestowns is just too big to be able to cope with any strong finishers) to see him home.
I backed him at around 6/1 when this thread began and I’d have no hesitation in topping up at the current 6/4.
Im still going to have to go against Kasbah.
I still think Kasbah Bliss is very beatable, saturdays performance ties in with everything he had done before IMO but tells very little about his chances at cheltenham.
If the world hurdle was a jog and sprint around haydock on good or thereabouts ground (not a mission that was soft IMO) then I would make him favorite. The race was run in a standard time yet the pace setter still finished on a full tank, also the juvenile novice race on the same card was also run in a standard time and was won by stow- a horse bred for good who doesnt fully stay 2miles.
Hills Of Aran led from the start, was still full of running at the end, and only 20 lengths covered Kasbah Bliss back to Turpin Green (the last horse home). Duc Du Regniere didnt run well at all and we cant rule out the possibility that Henderson may have just put him in a yardstick for measuring just how good KB is, against punchestowns.
When you look at his opposition on saturday, and ask yourself which of those horses would have any chance of matching a 2 mile flat horse for toe in an all out sprint on his ideal underfoot conditions, it puts a little context on his performance.
KB quickened visually well but that is what I would expect in the context of the race. I guarantee he wont finish off at cheltenham with that sort of speed.
In the long walk hurdle Punchestowns (through inexperience) made mistake after mistake on the way round and still battered them, he then threw in a decent performance at cheltenham when probably not fully wound up, as is often the case with hendersons prep runs (zaynar wasnt amazing either, nor chomba womba nor was binocular in the adonis last year).
For a well paced race on good-soft round cheltenham I’d still make Punchestowns the most likely winner. If it is good I would say that Kasbah Bliss will be hard to beat, and if it is as slow a pace as haydock on good ground KB will batter the field. However I reckon that it is more than likely due to be good-soft and the pace is more than likely going to be very good, so with Kasbah Bliss at a general 5/4 and punchestowns at 7/2, I reckon its an easy decision who I’d go for.
Binocular and Kasbah, in the absence of good ground, have punters misery written all over them for this festival IMO, and I bet they will be the best backed horses. It’ll be egg on my face if either romps home on good-soft (which is what they are priced up to do) but I honestly think a lot of money stands to be lost on the pair of them for anyone who has them as bankers.
I was lucky enough to be at Cheltenham to witness Inglis Drever claim his third World Hurdle, but it wasn’t until the Saturday after he was retired I watched a replay of the race.
Inglis and Kasbah Bliss were really belting up the hill and I don’t think the pace of the race will influence the chances of the French horse. If anything, KB would prefer a decent gallop.
Punchestowns hurdling has been somewhat suspect on occasions and you have to think a decent pace would put extra pressure on his jumping. Kasbah Bliss is as good a hurdler as anything in the race and rarely makes a mistake.
I don’t buy into the doubts surrounding his stamina. He’s won at Group 3 level on the flat over two miles and wasn’t beaten far in the Cadran over two and a half. He sure stayed up the Cheltenham hill last season and has clearly improved since.
Others in the race have question marks against them, but I can’t see a chink in his armour.
No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham, but Kasbah Bliss will be very hard to beat.
No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham…
Not strictly true.
In the past , Arkle (65 and 66 ), Flyingbolt (66) and Badsworth Boy ( 85 )were just three of the biggest bankers to line-up the festival.
Master Minded is also a banker this year. Won’t get beat !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham…
Not strictly true.
In the past , Arkle (65 and 66 ), Flyingbolt (66) and Badsworth Boy ( 85 )were just three of the biggest bankers to line-up the festival.
Master Minded is also a banker this year. Won’t get beat !
Anything can happen, Himself, anything…
No such thing as a banker at Cheltenham…
Not strictly true.
In the past , Arkle (65 and 66 ), Flyingbolt (66) and Badsworth Boy ( 85 )were just three of the biggest bankers to line-up the festival.
Master Minded is also a banker this year. Won’t get beat !
Easy to pick out bankers in retrospect. The festival has and always will be a lottery to a certain extent. I would think more "bankers" than not end up getting turned over at the festival
Easy to pick out bankers in retrospect. The festival has and always will be a lottery to a certain extent. I would think more "bankers" than not end up getting turned over at the festival
It’s easy to do so because it happens to be true. I was simply illustrating the point that there IS such a thing as a Cheltenham banker. The so called Cheltenham bankers which you to allude were/are invariably false "bankers", hyped up by press and bookmakers alike. There have been many examples of horses in recent years, who, as you rightly state, ended up getting turned over – even though they were dubbed bankers.
My own interpretation of a Chetenham banker is a horse who is so far in front of anything regarding ability and form, that the likelihood of it getting turned over is very slim indeed. For example, Master Minded – 2009.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I remember last season there was a cheltenham bankers thread and Corm put up Master Minded as his cheltenham banker. I had Won In the Dark e/w in the Triumph as my cheltenham banker. Two years ago my banker was detroit city in the Champ Hurdle.
I think a cheltenham banker is by definition the one you cant see being beaten, but is opinion based. Nothing is certain in horseracing, a banker is one that is percieved as as near to certain as is possible.
Its very hard to see Master Minded getting beaten this year and I would say the same of VPU at a better price, as it will take an epic misfortune for either to be defeated.
just spotted this from simon claisse on cheltenham website
"I was up at Haydock on Saturday and spoke to Francois Doumen before Kasbah Bliss ran. He told me he hoped for quicker ground at The Festival and that we would see a better horse on March 12th – if that is the case, the rest of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle contenders have their work cut out!! "
If i had to name one horse to date as a festival banker then it would be
Kasbah bliss! Punchestowns wont have anywhere near the speed this fellows got and Big bucks just aint good enough!I think I probably need to convince myself that I have got one or two bankers nailed down from the Festival championship races at this stage, as it will soon be time to start picking through those imponderable handicaps where I struggle to find even a 4-way place banker most years.
I have just been reading through the last few postings on the WH. Some really good points, I think. I agree with those who say that a strong pace would probably play to KB’s strengths, as he travels and hurdles so well. The only caveat perhaps is that with a horse that travels so well there is always the danger of getting to the front a bit sooner than ideal. Arguably, as things played out, Inglis Drever derived a slight advantage in the race last season from hitting a flat spot and then having to be rousted along to get back into contention going to the last. It just gave ID that bit more momentum as they started up the hill to the line, I felt, and that may have proved decisive in him narrowly overhauling KB to win the race.
I would also agree with those who say that KB is unlikely to be beaten for a lack of stamina. He stayed well enough in the WH last season and over the summer he was progressive as a stayer on the flat in some very high quality races. For me, the outcome of the WH this time is likely to hinge much more on how much of the sting is taken out of KB’s finishing speed by the pace of the race and the ground conditions on the day. Off a fairly average pace for the race on good to soft, KB probably will be able to put the race to bed easily enough with a burst of speed away from the last hurdle (though he probably won’t sprint away with quite the flourish he showed on Saturday on an easier track at Haydock). If the pace/going is a bit more demanding though, he may have to battle all the way to the line to win. He was tenacious enough in trying to hold ID off in the race last season, so he will probably do well enough if he has to dig deep in a battle up the hill. But perhaps it is fair to say there is no reason to think KB would prove any more tenacious in a battle than Punchestowns or Big Buck’s, and Fair Along we know is a very tough horse too.
When horses with a good turn of foot lose the advantage of their acceleration at the end of a hard race at Cheltenham due to having used up a lot of their reserves of energy, it does sometimes seem to hand the advantage quickly to the bigger, more muscular horses in the last few yards up the hill. The stronger built horses have the muscular power to drive themselves up the hill as opposed to sprinting away, even though they may be tiring just as much as the smaller, flat bred types. I suppose Noland’s win in the Supreme Novices is an example of that. Not surprisingly, Noland fell off the pace in that race as he was up against a number of speedy types with flat ratings of 90+. But he gained momentum coming down the hill into the straight and then really powered away up the hill as his physical strength and length of stride stole the advantage away from the tiring speed horses. Similarly perhaps with Captain Cee Bee in last season’s SN where his muscularity and length of stride seemed to play a key part in overhauling Binocular up the hill. I don’t think it was stamina (or stamina alone) that saw Noland and Captain Cee Bee win out in the battle up the hill – I think their wins had more to do with an advantage that is handed to the bigger, stronger horse under certain types of race condition at Cheltenham and particularly in the strongly run championship races.
My Way De Solzen’s WH was one of the fastest run in recent years, albeit on drying ground. Both Golden Cross and MWDS were pretty flat out at the end and that perhaps levelled things up between them going up the hill. Golden Cross, the good flat horse, couldn’t quite muster the acceleration to match the finishing drive of the bigger, more muscular horse. With his turn of foot blunted, Golden Cross struggled to get on terms with the physical strength that drove MWDS into the lead as they started up the hill.
I still think KB is the most likely winner, but perhaps enough doubts to think the bookies have got the better of the deal at odds around 11/8 and lower. But then the bookies were offering KB at 8/1 for the WH just before the start of the season, so maybe they are on a damage limitation exercise now in cutting the price about the horse so sharply.
just spotted this from simon claisse on cheltenham website
"I was up at Haydock on Saturday and spoke to Francois Doumen before Kasbah Bliss ran. He told me he hoped for quicker ground at The Festival and that we would see a better horse on March 12th – if that is the case, the rest of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle contenders have their work cut out!! "
Totally agree, this horse doesnt seem to have any weaknesses either it must be noted. If its a slow pace, he has the superior finishing speed, if its a fast pace he has stamina in abundance. Now quite evidently he acts on all types of going. If I was going to back against him, I would be backing against the jockey more than the horse. Pieux gave him a lovely ride the weekend but doesnt fill me with confidence.
Still think if Powerstation runs, he’ll be thereabouts. Dont think he ran last year but the times he has run around Cheltenham, he’s been narrowly beaten by Fair Along who was recieving a lot of weight and on his day could turn the form book on its head, and also was unlucky in his previous Cheltenham visits running into and only finding Black Jack Ketcham too good for him. A very underrated horse who could shock a few people (even though the form is there) Also must have been a huge gamble on him somewhere….. from 50’s to 16’s in the space of a week, (subsequently eased back out) says someone somewhere is quietly confident.
Tazbar and Mobaasher @46 and 34 respectively, haven’t done anything wrong and will be my covering bets.
The former has been quite impressive in defeat, while C&D winner Mobaasher would have been a hell of alot closer to Punchestowns in the LW hurdle had he not been impeded at a time when the pace lifted. Both will appreciate a bit of give and a gallop.
All said, Mr Pieux would have to take the wrong course for any of the above to have a prayer
I am probably one of the few who is not that impressed with Kasbah Bliss. The run lasttime in my book was not that special. He beat, albeit very easily, a very average horse in Hills of Aran, who has not been sighted at all this season until that day. True he ran better on Sunday at Fontwell, but I would imagine you could put any of the leading contenders for the Stayers in that race and they’d win.
While if he were mine I’d run him in the Gold Cup (horses should be raced for today as you never know how they will be next year), connections seem intent on running Big Buck’s in this, and he is the stand out horse. His form since stepped up in trip has been very strong. Remember he was going to be at least 3rd in the Hennessy. And while Punchestowns fans will say he was getting weight and the ground was poor etc etc, in my book, the slow pace didn’t favour him and he’s got form on decent ground. He’s still going to improve and probably more than Kasbah, and possilby than Punchestowns and with Fair Along sure to go off hard, will make sure its a real test and I see him coming up the hill strongest. He is almost my banker of the meeting and come the opening day, may well be it.
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