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I’m laying Inglis Drever as he is too old now and this is one race to many. Blazing Bailey will come of age and beat the fading power I think.
Baracouda couldnt do it as a 9yo and a similar fait awaits Inglis Drever the alleged banker of the festival. Inglis Drever was a good double champion and the old boy is likely to do himself proud with 2nd or 3rd place in the race.
Think it will be the stable form that beats him if anything, still a bit hit and miss. Unless he has deteriorated half a stone or more in less than 2 months.
Point is Baracouda had not shown his top form in the same year. Inglis has.
I make a few value here.
MWDS I make a 15/2 chance.
Blazing Bailey (only just value) 15/2, can not split the King Pair.
Kazal 14/1.
and Special Envoy 40/1 who is available at 74/1.When last seen Special Envoy’s trainer was in diabolicle form yet now is in excellant form. Go back to his Newbury form (2nd to Inglis) and he stands a chance of beating all the others.
Value Is EverythingWorld Hurdle Tissue
INGLIS DREVER…..2.65
BLAZING BAILEY…..5.93
MY WAY DE SOLZEN…..9.91
KASBAH BLISS…..13.21
HARDY EUSTACE…..13.51
LOUGH DERG…..17.26
WICHITA LINEMAN…..18.44
KAZAL…..37.82
AITMATOV…..46.93
THE MARKET MAN…..51.28
SPECIAL ENVOY…..142.08
FLIGHT LEADER…..259.05
CHIEF DAN GEORGE…..299.55
EBAZIYAN…..306.46
MATERIAL WORLD…..306.46
REDEMPTION…..535.49
SONNYANJOE…..1190.09Decimal Prices 100% Book
Your assertion that a nine-year-old is ‘too old’ is ridiculous enough, Zoso (especially as his ninth birthday is technically next Tuesday) but how do you expect Blazing Bailey to overturn a 5l beating in this race last year, a 25l hammering at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle and a comfortable 5l defeat in the Cleeve?
Inglis Drever is as good as home in my view.
Age is academic. He wasn’t too old 6 or 7 weeks ago when he put some of his biggest challengers to the sword in the Cleeve Hurdle, so I see no reason why Inglis Drever is too old now. On form, especially this seasons’, he is the proverbial penalty kick and I’m yet to be convinced that his stable is particularly off the boil.
Aitmatov 2% 50/1 (28/1)
Blazing Bailey 12% 15/2 (6/1)
Chief Dan George 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)
Ebaziyan 0.3% 300/1 (80/1)
Flight Leader 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
Hardy Eustace 4.25% 22/1 (16/1)
Inglis Drever 40% 6/4 (11/8
Kasbah Bliss 6.75% 14/1 (10/1)
Kazal 6.75% 14/1 (10/1)
Lough Derg 4% 25/1 (18/1)
My Way De Solzen 11.5% 15/2 (6/1)
Redemption 0.05% 2000/1 (500/1)
Sonnyanjoe 0.45% 200/1 (66/1)
Special Envoy 2.5% 40/1 (25/1)
The Market man 3.5% 28/1 (20/1)
Wicheta Lineman 5% 20/1 (14/1)
Material World 0.2% 500/1 (100/1)Figures in brackets show prices I would offer if I were a bookie, working to 124.9%.
Value Is EverythingAfter watching C4 yesterday and being reminded of Willie Wumpkins’ treble in the Coral Hurdle Final aged 21, 22 and 23 (I think
) the suggestion that ID is too old is put into perspective.The race is IMO a bit disappointing but this is because the division is not that strong at the moment and ID (like Best Mate of previous years) can do no more than beat what’s around.
Another "old" boy Hardy Eustace may run well before running out of petrol a furlong or two out.
To say a horse is too old at 9 is ridiculous.
Native Jack at 14 was not too old too jump round nearly 4 miles of fences on Tuesday and make 2nd, and Red Rum didn’t need a zimmer frame to win 3 Nationals. I know they’re chasers not hurdlers, but really!!!!
You will today witness two apparent good things get beaten due to age.
Inglis Drever will be beaten due to being too old. Baracouda was a bigger certainty and he was turned over as a 9yo in this race. The same fate awaits Inglis. Stable form is fine and is no excuse for the champs defeat.
Master Minded is too young and the best any followers of him can hope for is for the horse to survive the festivals fastest chase and walk away with his life and come back next year.
Blazing Bailey has been getting the experience for a while now and can finally come of age and reverse form with Inglis Drever and start his own dominant period of the World Hurdle. Today we will see Inglis Drever come off the bridle a long way from home however the difference today will be that he doesnt come back on the bridle at any point. Blazing Bailey will trounce this field today. You have my word.
These ficticous odds must serve a purpose damned if I know what they mean……..If you fancied a horse a wanted value you should have bet him a week ago and you would have value
If Inglis Drever was 20/1 I would still give him the same chance as I would if he was 1/20 absolutely silly to think any other way IMO…He’s either a good horse or he’s not and price doesn’t change a thing when they are running..best thing to do is not look at the prices when betting on the day of a race…. pick your selections and stick to them……….that wat you don’t bet against yourself because your mind tells you your wrong cos the bookie makes the one you like a 10/1 shot or whatever. Anyway everyone to their own I’m more intersted in finding winners that worry about prices as I only bet horses I think will win
As far as the race is concened age is not a problem the horse has done the business aready this season and is a worthy favourite.
I can’t see any horse who is not fully exposed and the race look pretty certain to go to Inglis Drever.
I’ve already bet Witchita Lineman 6/1 when I thought he could win this qand also have him at larger odds in some mixed betting for fun.
His last run was bad….no other way to desribe it…..but he wasn’t quite right and is back on song. If he runs to his best form he is the only horse I can see beating Inglis Drever……….but getting to a position where he can go head to head go head to head with him is easier said than done.
If the two jumped the last together I would expect WL to outbox him he is one very tough horse.
However things haven’t gone to plan and although he is supposidly fit he had a set back at the wrong time………..so I have to row in with Inglis Drever. I won’t bet him it’s too late for that but I do think he will win.
Quick point about this race..
I was going to back Kasbah Bliss as I think the ground will be riding on the quick side of good, however, the race is now on the old course which is a fair bit stiffer than the new course. Not ideal.
Kasbah Bliss probably needs a flat track, softer going and a slow pace. Will get none of those.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI also hope and think Inglis Drever will win.
Have had an each way bet on Hardy Eustace just for fun. Thought that 2nd to Loch Derg was a good run. LD stole the race and I know the connections were dissapointed thinking HE did not stay. LDs later performances have suggested otherwise. Thats the first three for me. Easy this game isnt it?
Good luck All!
If Inglis Drever was 20/1 I would still give him the same chance as I would if he was 1/20 absolutely silly to think any other way IMO…
Absolutely agree Fist, but – VALUE DEBATE ALERT –[/color:wkxgyjr2] it has to affect whether you back him or not. If it doesn’t, then you are in serious trouble…
For the record, I just have a feeling in my waters that Inglis Drever will blow out today. I wouldn’t put this down to his age in particular, but the fact that connections have said they are on the verge of retiring him (at only 9yo) rings big alarm bells with me…
(I will be slightly poorer, but not disappointed, if he proves me wrong!)
) the suggestion that ID is too old is put into perspective.
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