Withdrawn horse statistics

[shakeshuck]

Guys,

Here’s a bit of an odd one for you. Does anyone know if there are any statistics held anywhere (even personal collections) regarding the numbers of horses withdrawn at events?

I’m working on an idea and it would be nice to know things like:

Race types that are more prone to withdrawals on the day.
Courses that are more prone to withdrawals on the day.
…etc.

My aim would be to try to predict which conditions are most likely to have on-the-day withdrawals.

TIA.

Graham.

[shakeshuck]

I haven’t found any data yet, but I’d like to ask a related question:

Is there a way for me to see what Rule 4 reductions are going to be applied to a race before the race starts? Once a horse is withdrawn, the price of the horse at the time of withdrawal is no longer displayed (at least, as far as I can find). I guess it’s complicated as most bookies will re-calculate their odds before the race starts, but if you’ve already placed your bet, how can you work out what actual odds will be returned?

[robnorth]

The bets to which Rule 4 deductions apply will depend on the time of withdrawal. If a horse is withdrawn at the start then, assuming start is imminent and a new market can’t be reliably formed, the Rule 4 deduction would apply to all bets. If it’s early enoguh for a new market to be formed then the deductions will be be made on bets at board prices struck before the withdrawal. If you typr Rule 4 deductions into Google then the deduction scale shoudl be easy enough to find.

I haven’t bet on early price markets very often but I assume that bookmakers apply Rule 4 based on price of horse at time of withdrawal with deductions made from bets struck before that point.

Betfair make a deduction on bets before withdrawal based on amount of money bet on the withdrawn horse.

Simpler with the Tote. All they have to do is taken the money bet on the withdrawn out of the pool calculations.

Rob

[shakeshuck]

Thanks Rob, your explanations make perfect sense.

The method I am working on relies on getting early prices (as you can probably guess from my first query), but the problem I am having is that the bookie I currently use lists all open bets at the price taken before any withdrawals. There seems to be no way I can calculate what price I am actually going to receive once the bet is placed, but before the race starts. To make matters worse, this particular bookie doesn’t alter the price shown in the bet history after the race either, which is very confusing.

I don’t know if other bookies follow the same process, or if they are more forthcoming with the correct information?

Graham.

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