Winners from Top 6 in Market

[Oasisdreamer]

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone could provide some data on the % of winners to runners that come from the top 6 in the betting market?

I believe something like 50% of winners come from the top 3 in the market but I’d like to take it a stage further and look at the stats for the top 6.

If anyone has this sort of information split between flat and NH for say the last 5 years it would be much appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

[Cav]

Flat + All Weather 01/01/2005 to present
SP
1…30.79%
2…18.66%
3…12.95%
4…9.49%
5…7.57%
6…5.62%

Jumps 01/01/2005 to present
SP
1…33.30%
2…19.32%
3…13.05%
4…9.12%
5…6.96%
6…5.19%

[Oasisdreamer]

Thank you kind sir!!

So nearly 7 out of every 8 races are won by the top 6 in the market.

I’m hopeful making these runners my first port of call when analysing any race will pay dividends. That’s not to say I will completely ignore the other runners but with so much racing these days I think you need a simple but effective approach to narrow the field, and the betting market seems a logical place to start.

[berkoboy]

Oasis

I had tried to form some kind of system involving the first 3 in the market. However, the one thing I found was something at first show, top 3 in the market weren’t necessarily the first 3 at race finish.

I take it that’s what your stats based on Cav.

For Cav

Going off thread slightly, where do you get all these stats from. Have you your own database? or is there a site you subscribe to or is all this information in the public domain( if you have the time to surf).

The reason I was wondering was I wanted to know at the different AW tracks what percentage of top weights win in claimers.

Sorry to have hijacked your thread oasisdreamer

[Oasisdreamer]

No probs with the hijack Berkoboy!!

I certainly take your point about the evolution of the market through the morning to SP, it was something I had considered and will need to work around. As as part time punter with time constraints it’s finding an approach that you feel comfortable with. I often find that with the volume of racing these days my time is so diluted I end up placing bets without looking at every angle.

[discretedata]

berkoboy

As

Oasisdreamer

has no objections, here are some stats for top weights (excluding jockey claim) in AW claimers from 2003 to date. Bear in mind that a race could have joint or co. top weighted runners. Hope the data displays OK.

Bets Wins WinStrike
Great Leighs 22 5 23%
Kempton 251 67 27%
Lingfield 452 96 21%
Southwell 515 96 19%
Wolverhampton 744 153 21%

Summary
Bets Wins WinStrike
1984 417 21.02%

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