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Will Kauto win at Aintree?

Home Forums Horse Racing Will Kauto win at Aintree?

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  • #154354
    Fist of Fury 2k8
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    • Total Posts 2931

    Modern day sprinters on the flat are not rated as high as their predecessors, yet the modern day Sprinters have recorded better times, how does this add up? I think people look back at yester year with rose tinted spectacles, what was Arkle rated 212?

    JohnJ.

    The thing about Arkle was you couldn’t praise him high enough…….there’s absulutely no questioning his ability and superiority.

    When you actually saw the horse run as I did everything else seems so disappointing.

    Where times are concerned he knock a full 16 seconds of the Sandown course record and wasn’t even pushed to do it.

    It would be very difficult to imagine how good he was there seems to be no footage of his best performances going around. I have checked U-tube hundreds of times and all we have is the Hennessy and his win against Mill House in 64.

    The only way I can think of to try and let people visualise hw good he was is ask them to think of Denman in the Gold Cup………then think of what Master Minded did to VPU.

    Then imagine Arkle doing the same to Denman and you have just about got it. You may think I am exagerating but believe me not only would he have outjumped Denman he would have made him look like a tree.

    Mill House won a far better Hennessy than Denman and Arkle beat him 20 lengths in the gold cup. Mill House was the pride and joy of one of the greatest jump trainers of all time Fulke Walwyn and he could never understand how any horse could be so good…….these guys didn’t exagerate about horses they were the Paul Nicholls of their time.

    Kauto Star is a great horse but different to Arkle…..he’s won at all distances but Arkle would have beat him out of sight in last years gold cup……….but in the King George ????? Kauto was awesome that day..couldn’t fault him and he could have won a lot further.
    How that would have panned out is a hard question…Arkle would probably have beat him but not by 20 lengths IMO.

    I am pretty sure one of these 3 PN horses is going to go down in history as the best since Arkle and that is a title no horse has laid claim to for 44 years.

    Kauto Star will beat Denman the next time they meet I am pretty sure of that and if he does in the same manner he has beaten everything else he will confirm his Superstar status.

    Many people have Denman up on a pedestal at the moment but I don’t think it will last……..I think he’s there to be shot at and if the go the Hennessy Lexus route he wont have it so easy this coming season……..lot of nice horses coming up something he is yet to encounter IMO……….Kauto don’t count :lol:

    But there’s a new Arkle on the block ok Master Minded is the closest thing to Arkle I have ever seen but he could be a flash in the pan so I am not prepared to give title to him just yet. Nicky Richards is keen to take him on at Liverpool with Monet Garden which would have been a better guide to just how good he is…….this VPU was the worst QMCC winner for years and is a bad yardstick when it comes to real top class.

    I suppose with the pending soft ground it is unlikely to happen but if he does run and can beat Monet Garden 20 lengths then he really is special.

    .

    #154368
    becksterbeckster
    Member
    • Total Posts 292

    yes but arkle was a good jumper withor without n pressure lol and you could never say that bout kato………….. :wink:

    #154437
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    Monet Garden which would have been a better guide to just how good he is…….this VPU was the worst QMCC winner for years and is a bad yardstick when it comes to real top class.

    Would that be the same VPU that beat Monet’s Garden in the Arkle a couple of years ago?

    VPU isn’t much more than an average two-mile champion (to say that he’s the worst in years is, frankly, rubbish) but he’s much the same horse, on form, as Monet’s Garden. I’d expect Master Minded to thrash the grey just as soundly as he did Alan kingf’s charge.

    #154457
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    You know mate to come on and make statements without any foundation to them can be very annoying.

    Let’s look at Voy Por Ustedes.

    He won the Arkle sure against what? Monet Graden was never in anyones wildest dreams a 2 mile horse. He was already running in 3 mile hurdles and winning..the only races he won over 2 miles ware 2 insignificant chases when he was long odds on. The 3rd horse Forman reversed places with VPU at Aintree giving him wieght.

    Then VPU ran against Well Chief and the bookies were so impressed by him they were offering 5/1 about him knowing full well the Arkle form wasn’t worth a hoot in comparison to the real 2 milers WC had been running against. UR

    He then goes for the QMCC and beats a 20/1 and a 33/1 shot River City who’s claim to fame was being winning outsider in a 4 horse race at Sandown……..he has never won since……the second beat Hulabaloo hardly Cheltenham form…….When Well Chief fell at the second all VPU had to do was jump to win he had nothing to beat.

    Since then what’s he done…………beaten first time out by a horse he should have been able to give 4 stone to……..got stuffed by a non stayer at Sandown…..won a micky mouse race and got thrashed twice by MM.

    If you can find a worse QMCC than him go ahead but not only will you be arguing with me but probably 90% of the people on here over the age of 30, Timeform

    You can go right back to Ben Stack and you won’t find as bad a horse as VPU………if you can please let me know because I’m damned if I can

    #154485
    becksterbeckster
    Member
    • Total Posts 292

    You know mate to come on and make statements without any foundation to them can be very annoying.

    Let’s look at Voy Por Ustedes.

    He won the Arkle sure against what? Monet Graden was never in anyones wildest dreams a 2 mile horse. He was already running in 3 mile hurdles and winning..the only races he won over 2 miles ware 2 insignificant chases when he was long odds on. The 3rd horse Forman reversed places with VPU at Aintree giving him wieght.

    Then VPU ran against Well Chief and the bookies were so impressed by him they were offering 5/1 about him knowing full well the Arkle form wasn’t worth a hoot in comparison to the real 2 milers WC had been running against. UR thats a bit like how i felt with your statemeant bout nc fist…..which i felt had no foundation and proved it lol, but like you were saying is what your oppi nion was, same as guy above, however i agree with what you are saying as i was parading azza b4 that race, and agree if wellcheif had not fallen , i dought vpu would have won….. :wink:

    He then goes for the QMCC and beats a 20/1 and a 33/1 shot River City who’s claim to fame was being winning outsider in a 4 horse race at Sandown……..he has never won since……the second beat Hulabaloo hardly Cheltenham form…….When Well Chief fell at the second all VPU had to do was jump to win he had nothing to beat.

    Since then what’s he done…………beaten first time out by a horse he should have been able to give 4 stone to……..got stuffed by a non stayer at Sandown…..won a micky mouse race and got thrashed twice by MM.

    If you can find a worse QMCC than him go ahead but not only will you be arguing with me but probably 90% of the people on here over the age of 30, Timeform

    You can go right back to Ben Stack and you won’t find as bad a horse as VPU………if you can please let me know because I’m damned if I can

    #154532
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    You know mate to come on and make statements without any foundation to them can be very annoying.

    Indeed it can….

    Monet Graden was never in anyones wildest dreams a 2 mile horse.

    That nice Mr Richards doesn’t have a clue about the best horse in his yard, does he? Maybe, just maybe, connections reasoned that a strongly run two miles, with a stiff uphill finish, would suit their charge? They certainly deemed it more acceptable than the Sun Alliance Chase; they could also have bypassed the meeting altogether. In the event, they were right. Let’s not forget that the 2006 Arkle Chase was, before the race, widely considered to be the best renewal in a number of years and Monet’s Garden beat the rest of the field convincingly.

    He was already running in 3 mile hurdles and winning.

    One question: why has Monet’s Garden only been asked to tackle three miles once as a chaser?

    Then VPU ran against Well Chief

    Voy Por Ustedes unseated at the fifth that day, far too early to be dogmatic about what might have happened.

    He then goes for the QMCC and beats a 20/1 and a 33/1 shot River City….When Well Chief fell at the second all VPU had to do was jump to win he had nothing to beat.

    True, but he could only beat what was left.

    beaten first time out by a horse he should have been able to give 4 stone to……..

    See, this is what I just don’t get. You’re saying that VPU is rubbish and then arguing that he should have given a horse rated 142 (Kalca Mome ran off 143 at Cheltenham, as he was one pound out of the handicap) four stones, first time out and on really tacky ground? That means that VPU should have run to about 200, making him the third best steeplechaser in history. Spot the contradiction?

    got stuffed by a non stayer at Sandown

    Twist Magic has won two Grade One races. Non-stayers don’t tend to have that degree of success.

    won a micky mouse race

    Again, he beat what was in front of him. Or is that now a reason to denigrate a horse?

    and got thrashed twice by MM.

    No disgrace in that. I’ve been keeping my own ratings since 1983 and in all that time only two horses have bettered the mark set by Master Minded in the Champion Chase. Those two were Desert Orchid, when he won the 1990 Racing Post Chase under 12-3, and Carvill’s Hill, in his Welsh National romp the following year. Master Minded is, by my reckoning, the best horse of the last twenty-five years, those two titans excepted.

    not only will you be arguing with me but probably 90% of the people on here over the age of 30

    What has age got to do with it? Younger people have access to form books and video replays of old races, so they are just as capable of forming an opinion as are older racegoers. Furthermore, their thought process is less likely to be addled by the onset of senility. By the way, from where do you get this ninety per cent figure? Have you spoken to all of the over-30s you know? Why not go for 37%? Or 81%? Ah, I get it: you have plucked a figure out of thin air in a vain attempt to give your argument some semblance of intellectual credibility.

    Timeform

    I’ve got every Chasers & Hurdlers since they began and Timeform’s ratings, once a byword for impartial accuracy, aren’t what they were. Commercial influences have crept in over the last fifteen years or so. Racing Post Ratings have always been skewed towards headline-making, so the most accurate figures tend to be those of the official handicapper, in my opinion.

    You can go right back to Ben Stack and you won’t find as bad a horse as VPU………if you can please let me know because I’m damned if I can

    Sadly, I can’t go back as far as Ben Stack, as I’m only thirty-six and I haven’t seen videos of races before 1980. What I can do, though, is recall every Cheltenham since that year (I don’t trust my memory from when I was very young) and I can say that, in my opinion, Drumgora, Flagship Uberalles and Newmill were, on the balance of their form, no better than Voy Por Ustedes, to name but three.

    Let’s recap Voy Por Ustedes’ career over fences: unbeaten as a novice, until beaten by Foreman (an AIG Europe Champion Hurdle winner and placed in the Champion Hurdle itself, let’s not forget) when possibly over the top at Aintree. His second season started with a trouncing by the phenomenon that is Kauto Star, then he beat horses he should have beaten at Kempton and unseated early at Newbury. Champion Chase success followed. This season, he’s been beaten in the mud first time out, when patently blowing up, and then beaten by a fellow Grade One winner at Sandown (have you even considered that it’s possible that his reappearance exertions took quite a lot out of him?). He then again hacks up at Kempton, before twice finding one of the best ‘chasers of recent times too good for him. Take Master Minded out of the Cheltenham race (and who could have predicted his emergence even three months ago?) and VPU would have beaten a couple of horses rated 152 and 153 by sixteen lengths, earning himself a rating in the high 160s. In fact, even with Master Minded in the race, VPU has done just that. Nobody is claiming that VPU deserves a place in the pantheon of great two mile chasers- he’s no Pearlyman or Badsworth Boy- but he’s by no mans the worst winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

    One more thing: your original assertion was that Monet’s Garden would somehow provide “a better guide to just how good” Master Minded is. How will a horse rated 166 do that, compared to a horse rated 168? It’s just an idea, but perhaps you should take a few deep breaths and mull things over before unleashing that furious fist of yours on the keyboard.

    #154559
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 185

    I score that round 10-9 to yq21.
    Keep it up chaps…some terrific informed and passionate discourse
    A great example of why diverse opinion and the exchange of information is central to this fine sport.

    #154575
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    PLeae don’t quote BS rating to me I have eyes and don’t need thenm thanks :P

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-Udtlifcyo Interesting video

    1. I think Nicky like his dad before him knows it but more about horses than you.
    2. That’s a dumb question and rates up there with insulting the trainer he’s a 2m 4f horse they do exist you know.
    3. Giving 4 stone was a figure of speech but weight differences that are allowable shouldn’t have brought the two together if he was a good QM winner. Kalca Mome is near on useless was stone last on his last outing and hasn’t come anywhere near winning in 10 other races. That is apart from being 3rd in the Jenny Mould a moderate race he won 2 1/2 years ago
    4. Twist Magic won on good ground on the two easiest courses in the country Kempton and Aintree…..he then beat a very bad QMCC winner VPU at Sandown on soft but very easy to go through ground according to Sam Thomas. Pn said he thought he would be suited better by Aintree…..it was obvious when T/Beu beat him he didn’t stay and T/Bleu form was worth the paper it was written on.

    You know I said all this before the race not just after. And a week after the posted they did a preview of the race (above) where two things came up…..Mark Winstanley said Master Minded was a certainty and he and Mark Champan agreed VPU win was the worst in the history of the race. The other pint made was that Twist magic wouldn’t get the trip. These things are obvious and you don’t need to be a genius to work them out.
    Did you know the River City is now running on the all weather and cant get placed let alone win? Some Champion chase that turned out to be.
    Anyway I thought the race was a doddle to work out…..one of the easiest ever and as I posted on here he was my biggest bet in years…..you can keep your ratings mate they are a total waste of time IMO…..If you don’t know who the top horses in the country are by simply watching then there’s no hope for you.

    I guess your rating told you to back VPU ? Well my eyes told me he is moderate and on the downgrade.

    My eyes told me Twist magic wouldn’t get the trip and my eyes told me with the aid of looking back 2 races that T/Bleu was grossly overrated.

    Now to finish off and get back to what I said about Monet Garden being a better test of how good Master Minded is.

    First off he ran against Kauto Star 2m5f and did well to get within 8 lengths of him……….He will be 100% spot on at Aintree which was always his target plus the race is over 2m4f not 2m plus he stuffed Well Chief in it last year…So if Master Minded is the horse we think he is he is going to have to beat Monet Garden by more than 8 lengths for his rating to be correct…..personally it wouldn’t surprise me if Nicholls doesn’t run him….could be scared the bubble bursts.?

    #154589
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3775

    John Francome said after Cheltenham that Master Minded is the most exciting horse he has ever seen.

    He is certainly my banker for Aintree, should he run.

    Monet’s Garden or Voy Por Ustedes won’t see which way he goes.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #154590
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    1. I think Nicky like his dad before him knows it but more about horses than you.

    I’m sure he does.That’s why I don’t believe that his decision to run in the Arkle was a bad one. You did, though.

    2. That’s a dumb question and rates up there with insulting the trainer

    I’m not the one who insulted the trainer. You are.

    3. Giving 4 stone was a figure of speech but weight differences that are allowable shouldn’t have brought the two together if he was a good QM winner.

    So horses aren’t allowed to need their first run of the season any more, especially on that ground?

    4. Pn said he thought he would be suited better by Aintree…..

    Why run him at Cheltenham?

    You know I said all this before the race not just after.

    Yes, I’m fully aware of that.

    Mark Winstanley said Master Minded was a certainty and he and Mark Champan agreed VPU win was the worst in the history of the race.

    Things must be desperate if you’re trying to use Winstanley as some kind of judge. Who is "Mark Champan" by the way?

    Did you know the River City is now running on the all weather and cant get placed let alone win?

    Nah, I never look at the day’s racing.

    I guess your rating told you to back VPU ?

    No, they told me to back Master MInded, who was only a pound behind him on Newbury running and had a "+" mark.

    Well my eyes told me he is moderate and on the downgrade.

    See, that’s the bit where you’re wrong. The trouble is that you’re too stubborn to accept anything other than your own opinion.

    So if Master Minded is the horse we think he is he is going to have to beat Monet Garden by more than 8 lengths for his rating to be correct

    Master Minded will have to beat him by a lot more than eight lengths to prove that. Fifteen or twenty would be nearer the mark; I personally think that he’s capable of doing it

    it wouldn’t surprise me if Nicholls doesn’t run him….could be scared the bubble bursts.?

    I wouldn’t have thought that that would be the case, but stranger things have happened.

    #154621
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    If you can find a worse QMCC than him go ahead but not only will you be arguing with me but probably 90% of the people on here over the age of 30, Timeform

    You would not have to look back too far

    Newmill

    Who has done sod all since too

    #154622
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    So if Master Minded is the horse we think he is he is going to have to beat Monet Garden by more than 8 lengths for his rating to be correct…..

    This is where ratings can get a bit silly i think…

    Why woudl he need to beat any horse by more than 8 lengths? Isnt that enough? Rate margins that are slim …sure…but when it gets above certain distances then the manner rather than the measurement is the key

    #154626
    Anzum
    Member
    • Total Posts 256

    Will Kauto win at Aintree? Definitely. Nothing in the entries to beat him.

    #154631
    Sean Rua
    Member
    • Total Posts 511

    Thanks, Anzum.

    So, going, preparation, condition, and weather will be no problem this race?

    #154634
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1152

    Class, yquem21, pure class.

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