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Who are the REAL each way thieves

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    Each day on this thread I will report on an ongoing analysis of number of non-runners in handicaps and determine whether there is a statistically significant difference in the number of non-runners when evaluated against the number of declared runners in the race.

    This will be carried out as a kind of rough and ready investigation into the conspiracy theorists who reckon that the rules are being bent by certain persons who have plenty to gain by ensuring non-runners in handicaps containing a certain number of runners (i.e. 8 and 16).

    Let’s see how it pans out shall we.

    (Edited by cormack15 at 11:02 pm on May 17, 2006)

    • Total Posts 82

    I make it  seven 16+ runner h/c today Cormack.

    2 at York<br>2 at Salisbury<br>2 at Carlisle<br>1 at Ludlow

    Some have >17 runners though so the real thieves have their work cut out today. Should be interesting.

    • Total Posts 8968

    I’ve started compiling the data but to post an update each day would be both pointelss and tedious. Therefore I’ll update after each 100 races, showing the following –

    By number of runners declared I will show the % of handicap races which have 1,2 and greater than 2 non-runners.

    Any increased frequency in 8 and 16 runner handicaps should then be highlighted.

    I will also examine how this data compares to individual courses to examine whether this is a significant factor (bearing in mind tdk’s comments) and by day of the week, just to check that the bigger betting days (i.e. Saturdays) follow the same pattern.  <br>

    • Total Posts 1

    There is certainly a suspicion that horses are conveniently pulled out to reduce bookmakers’ liabilities on each way bets.

    However I am sceptical.

    Bookmakers already make big profits and the amount they would gain would be small in comparison to turnover.

    Furthermore it would require collusion with trainers and owners and I don’t know what they would gain by going along with it.

    I will be very interested in the results.

    • Total Posts 8968

    Sorry guys – events over the last few months have meant that I’ve been unable to tackle a rigourous analysis of this.

    Fear not, I will return to this subject at some point in the near-ish future.

    • Total Posts 2068

    I know someone did this and reckoned there WAS a big difference. Interesting but what can the humble punter do about it?

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