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This has echoes of Kauto Star after his fall when he may or may have not won against lowly opposition.
Denman won the Henessy first time out but was trained to the minute.
He’s run moderately after a very long lay off which is not unusual and after all it is the Gold Cup that is his main target.
After this run why would he not be ready in time it’s almost 5 weeks away?
I sincerely doubt if his minor heart problem would be responsible for the run. Much more likely he needed it badly as they wouldn’t be exactly rushing him along.
I think they know exactly what they are doing and Mr. Nicholls will announce about 2 weeks before the Gold Cup Denman has done fantastically well and he will run.
Sort of par for the course with him these days.
Amazed how quickly everyone is writing this horse off. He was fully entitled to be ring-rusty and I fully believe he remains the one to beat on March 13th.
Remember Kauto’s lacklustre reappearance run last season before destroying the opposition in the King George?
Hate to say it, but I think Denman is finished….
Even if he was a short of peak fitness, that categorically was not the same horse we saw last season. I wouldn’t back him at 10-1 for the Gold Cup.
Even if he was a short of peak fitness, that categorically was not the same horse we saw last season. I wouldn’t back him at 10-1 for the Gold Cup.
Completely agree.
He was a lay for me in yesterdays race and I have been laying him again today for the GC.
PN says he will be trained for the Gold Cup, and the Grand national isn’t being ruled out either. He says the horse was fine health wise, and eating well.
I’m with the "don’t write him off yet" crowd. Yes it was disappointing, but it wasn’t a disaster and he left some pretty good horses toiling in his wake, and it was his first run for nearly a year. He’s a Gold Cup winner but he’s not a machine. There’s plenty of top class horses that lose from time to time.
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To be honest I’m growing increasingly tired of hearing that Denman’s run was respectable, and that all is not lost, because he beat horses like Albertas Run by a distance. The fact that he was beaten, and beaten easily, by a horse rated 23lb below him seems to have passed some people by and that doesn’t even touch upon the idea that the finishing distances might not be entirely accurate.
Whether it’s sheer blind faith, or an unyielding desire to believe in something fantastic with no heeding of logic or reason, I don’t know, but there’s no way that Denman’s performance yesterday can be anything other than massively disappointing. That is, unless Paul Nicholls and company know something that we don’t (Harry Findlay’s interview on ATR – his aversion to answering Matt Chapman’s questions directly in particular – leaves me somewhat suspicious).
In terms of a Gold Cup this year, I’m writing him off. I expect an announcement sometime between now and the Festival stating that he won’t run again this season.
In terms of a Gold Cup this year, I’m writing him off. I expect an announcement sometime between now and the Festival stating that he won’t run again this season.
Despite Nichols saying he will go straight to the gold cup, and still has the national in mind ?
If you were in to conspiracy theories, not that I am mind you, could there be a larger pot of gold at the end of the rainbow other than the Gold Cup? Might the Gold Cup just be a serious work-out ahead of, say the National and that yesterday’s performance will certainly have some influence on the National weights out on Tuesday, I think? After all, the stable still have a serious candidate for the Gold Cup. So what’s the point in training-up two horses to the minute only to peak on the same day when it might be possible to grab both prizes provided one horse has some potential fitness in reserve to work on over the next couple of months?
(I can just hear Harry now – " Shucks, that Ken guy has sussed-out our ‘Grand Plan’. Lay!, Lay! Lay!")I’d suggest not, Ken.
Regardless of what happens between now and April, Denman is still a cert to get top-weight for Aintree, and is still a doubtful stayer over 4m4f, imo……….and that’s without taking any other factors (the physical setback, and yesterday’s performance) into account.
I just can’t see connections going for the "pot of gold" represented by the National, when they would have a much more straightfordward task in going for the ‘no question marks’ Gold Cup – assuming the horse is straight.
I reckon the only horse in Saturday’s race who gave his true running (apart, possibly, from Niche Market) was the winner. That makes Denman’s performance around two-stone below his best, and lack-of-fitness alone can’t account for that kind of differential, imo. I’m afraid that I concur with previous posters who reckon that the horse may never reach his previous highs – which is a real shame.
I bow to your greater knowledge of matters equine, oh dear Grasshopper. You are the master, the one and only.
CheersI bow to your greater knowledge of matters equine, oh dear Grasshopper. You are the master, the one and only.
CheersI don’t see any need to adopt a sarcastic tone, Ken – I’m merely expressing an opinion.
Besides, who would want to find out they are a novice in such matters, if push came to shove?
The folk that make me laugh are the one’s who (before the race) said odds-on was buying money on Denman, and after the race say he should be retired.
They must be dissapointed, as there’s a bit of a perceptive contradiction in thinking a horse is a certainty one minute, and then wanting it to be retired because it didn’t "meet your expectations" after the event.
Fanny’s.
Agreed marble – muppets one and all.
Of course, you speak as one who had a monkey on the winner after all, so you’re bullet-proof.
Difficult to draw any positives from Denman’s run. For one who is normally such a strong and resolute galloper his emptying out in the straight was particularly alarming; not what you’d expect of a Denman ‘in need of the run’, more a Denman who isn’t himself at all.
TV pictures tell lies but IMO neither his appearance (musculature) nor his body-language before and during the race impressed at all.
As such I would side with those who believe he won’t – or shouldn’t – run again this season, though I wouldn’t go so far as TDK’s "finished" just yet.
As for Madison du Berlais, well I’m prepared to believe he’s improved some more on what is a generally progressive profile but an RPR of 176 seems plainly absurd, as he had the run of the race and saw off a poorly Denman, a jonjoed Albertas Run, a 130s handicapper in Niche Market, an injured Joe Lively, and a has-been in Trabolgan.
163 tops MDB: admirable though you are, the Hennessy was your Gold Cup.
Grasshopper, you misunderstand me. I was not being sarcastic. It was an acknowledgment that you are probably wiser on these horsey matters, said in a way not to meant to cause offence and as deference to your name, having enjoyed the grasshopper series on TV.
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