When the handicapper gets it wrong.

[TheBluesBrother]

When working on the speed figures for Nottingham yesterday, I came across a horse Sinfonietta (4.25) who this morning will make the BHA handicappers livid.

SINFONIETTA, a ten-race maiden going into the event, was a hugely impressive winner on his seasonal reappearance, travelling strongly and still cruising whilst everything else was being ridden along vigorously. He had a BHA mark of 95 when first starting out for this yard, who were completing a double on the day, which had dropped to 76 fairly quickly but there had been little indication he had a performance like this in him. He looked miles ahead of his mark here and although conditions may have maximised the visual impact, he will be due a hefty hike up the handicap on the back of it. He looks one to keep on the right side of while the spring ground remains in place.

On recent form I had Sinfonietta improving 21lbs, and the second home Spa´s Dancer was unlucky to bump into the winner, both horses go into my tracker, and I look to the new OR the handicappers will lump on Sinfonietta, back to 95 I reckon….

Flat 2016:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=9533a2f7-3c41-56f8-1031-817a9b49d777

Mike.

[stevecaution]

Sinfonietta started off with a 2nd place to Make Believe in a maiden race at Deauville. The winner that day confirmed the form when a narrow runner up in the Group 3 Prix Djebel (A race whose renewal takes place today) where Sinfonietta was 5th, roughly 4 lengths away.

Make Believe went on to win the French 2000 Guineas and the Prix De La Foret, where he sank my ante-post bet on Limato.

Obviously Sinfonietta was then one of these horses who gets the temporary (for varying periods) title of “The Best Maiden In Training”, which often seems to translate to “Expensive to follow”

Made favourite on his UK debut in a Chester maiden, Sinfonietta was rated 95 but finished stone last, in a race where the 75 rated Neutron Bomb finished second.

The race record shows that he went to Wetherby next and despite being still rated 95, he faced a 1/2 Favourite only rated 75, which looks madness on the face of the rankings. The lower rated horse won though.

Sinfonietta took a serious drop in the ratings, right down to 85 and another 6lbs off quickly followed before he returned to France and went off warm favourite on the polytrack at Chantilly, where he stank and got down another 3lbs in the handicap.

Some horses are lucky to get a pound off for finishing 99th six times in a row, but this fellow got 19lbs better off in a hurry.

I’ll be taking this with a pinch of salts on the heavy ground but I suspect that the handicapper will be lumping the weight back on next Wednesday.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Sinfonietta runs in the Spring Cup in Saturday and after recalling this post I felt I’d better stick a couple of quid on at the opening 9/1.

The handicapper raised the mark to 89, which is still below the original 95 ranking. It seemed a reasonable angle into an otherwise routine looking handicap with plenty of the usual suspects.

The 9/1 has been nibbled all week and is long gone.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Author]

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