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Hi All,
I am very big on Sizing Europe in the December Festival Hurdle 29/12/08.
I firmly believe he was the best horse in the race when beaten by the admirable Hardy Eustace last time time out. SE came to win the race, went lengths ahead and then tired due to lack of peak fitness. I also think he would have won the Champion Hurdle this year – seems to be 50/50 on here in terms of agreement on that! (I’d do one of those poll thingies if I knew how
)SE is almost 3/1 for Monday week on Betfair which is way too big imho.
I cannot see Brave Inca or Catch Me beating him. The only thing that would worry me is heavy ground.
I’m hoping the high street bookies will price this race up soon.
What beast do you think is nailed on to win over Xmas?
Zip
Getzippy asked:-
What beast do you think is nailed on to win over Xmas?Rudolph, by a nose, me thinks.
Sizing Europe was the horse that popped into my head when I saw the thread title. Can’t see him getting beaten at Leopardstown. He will have come on a tonne since the Morgiana and Andy Mac won’t be hitting the front as soon this time round.
Shakervilz, if he goes for the 3 mile hurdle at Leopardstown (the Woodies DIY Hurdle I think?) would be my other banker for the Christmas period. I was very taken with his win at Thurles and he went in again today beating a grade 1 winner in Aitmatov quite readily. The staying hurdle division over here lacks depth at the moment. With Hardy and Brave Inca set to go in the 2 miler, and with Kazal and Sweet Kiln looking out of sorts this season, I can’t think of another horse to beat Shakervilz at Leopardstown.
Getzippy asked:-
What beast do you think is nailed on to win over Xmas?Rudolph, by a nose, me thinks.
Odds on though, Ken?
Zip
I can think of two horses long since laid out for Festive week targets, so I’m probably going to say Calatagan and (if he’s still on an eligible mark) Victory Gunner to record yet another win each in the Castleford Chase and Lincolnshire National respectively.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Great stuff Zippy on getting 3/1. I don’t have an account with Betfair and my bookie told me to take a hike and wait until the books open preoperly. He doesn’t often do that but I can’t blame him he reackons he’s a 7/4 shot at best,
Maybe they know something we don’t because 3/1 is massive when yoo look at the oppossition,. You sure this isn’t a handicap and he’s not giving them all 2 stone ? lol:
I backed Kauto Star before his last run for the King George VI Chase,after his last run and backed him again yesterday……….can’t see him losing if he jumps ok despite him having lost 3 on the trot but I think Stable companion Neptune Collanges is the best bet by far of the Xmas period to win the Lexus.
It’s a case of take any price you can for as much as you can afford with him. The race is taylormade for him, it won’t matter a damn if it’s soft heavy or even good ground, he looks as near a certainty as you will find all season.
So Neptune Collanges for me.
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Hiya Fist,
I said he was almost 3-1 on Billy Betfair….he’s now 40/17.
I agree he is nearer a 6/4 shot in my book.
Hopefully, we will see some prices around after Xmas day. I’d take 2/1.
Hmm, maybe Neptunes would make a jolly double?
Zip
I don’t see why not; last year I got a good return with Denman and Kauto Star because I got on early when they ran in GC trials. They were both odds on but when the betting first opened they were no where near as short as on the day.
The bookies will tend to be a bit longer early on even if both look like good things.
I could see NC starting around 4/5 on the day as the opposition looks poor. Sizing Europe would be 1/2 if he was going into a race like that right after he won the AIG…the question you have to ask is has he retained his forem and personally I think it’s as obvious as the nose on our face he has.
He looked at one point he was going to do to Hardy Eustace what he did to him in he AIG again. I am sure he would have but for blowing up.
If Brave Inca (2nd fav) is the best the bookies can come up with then it will be like a walk in the park for Sizing Europe. I would be more inclined to think if there was a danger it would come from the less exposed Muirhead or River Liane. Intersest in either may help keep SE’s price reasonable.
Good thread here. I should think we will get the 5day declaerations this year, will have to if we are oging to pick them out in time. Sizing Europe is probabley the best for me aswell, though the Welsh National winner could be Halcon Generlaides if he isn’t lump with 11st 12lbs AGAIN!
"The Market man" to win the Feltham at Kempton and "Nenuphar" to get the weight from "Halcon" should prove decisive in the Welsh National, are races to look forward to!
SE is almost 3/1 for Monday week on Betfair which is way too big imho.
I cannot see Brave Inca or Catch Me beating him. The only thing that would worry me is heavy ground.
On that subject, does anyone know what distance Catch Me will concentrate on this year. Backed him for the Champion hurdle last year and although connections made the age old excuse "he wasn’t right" in that race, looked more of a stayer than having the speed to match the top top horses over two miles.
imo, i think Catch me will probabley stick at 2m 4f. Though i think he would get 2m 5f.
Regarding Catch Me – wouldn’t touch him for anything at Cheltenam, he’s surely a mudlark and a classy one at that.
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