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Including friday too, here’s what I’ve learned:
– Time For Rupert is a leading contender for the RSA Chase. A very impressive win over a trip short of his best.
– Get Me Out Of Here is not as good as I previously thought, and if he doesn’t take to fences could struggle off his current handicap mark.
– Forpadydeplasterer does not possess the speed anymore to win good class 2m races. Could be a challenger in the Ryanair imo.
– The second last fence will still provide plenty of fallers as the pace increases off the last bend.
Anyone else?
Time For Rupert: (on one race evidence) Jumps well and will improve considerably at 3m. Bookmakers are pricing up horses for the RSA in the same way they’ve always done. Many possible rivals will go for the new Jewson. Mikael is fragile. Get on Time For Rupert!
Menorah is better than I thought, but still needs to improve a hell of a lot to rival Binocular.
Get Me Out Of Here does not seem in the same form, would not be a surprise to see his handicap mark drop and then go for a second Tote Gold Trophy.
Sanctuaire needs to settle to realise potential.Solwhit is going to take plenty of beating in Irish hurdles. Looks value in ante-post market for Champion Hurdle – but will he run?
Voler La Vedette could strike up a sequence if keeping to mares hurdles.Garde Champetre can be beaten on the x-country.
Tataniano might need a sound surface to produce his best.
Forpaddytheplasterer does not have the TEMPERAMENT to win grade 1 races these days. Don’t believe the form.Cue Card is probably the best novice hurdler seen in decades.
Long Run does not jump well enough at Cheltenham. May need a flat track.
Mad Max also needs to improve his jumping to realise potential.
Little Josh provided a big compliment to Weird Al (for Hennessey), who dead-heated with him at Carlisle.
Sunninghillboy’s good round of jumping in the Byrne (second) looks a one off.Sam Winner already looks a top class juvenile.
Hurricane Fly is just as fragile as ever.
Value Is EverythingThegreatjohnbrowne is the best novice chaser seen in Ireland so far this winter.
Zaidpour has an engine.
Time For Rupert: (on one race evidence) Jumps well and will improve considerably at 3m. Bookmakers are pricing up horses for the RSA in the same way they’ve always done. Many possible rivals will go for the new Jewson. Mikael is fragile. Get on Time For Rupert!
Menorah is better than I thought, but still needs to improve a hell of a lot to rival Binocular.
Get Me Out Of Here does not seem in the same form, would not be a surprise to see his handicap mark drop and then go for a second Tote Gold Trophy.
Sanctuaire needs to settle to realise potential.Solwhit is going to take plenty of beating in Irish hurdles. Looks value in ante-post market for Champion Hurdle – but will he run?
Voler La Vedette could strike up a sequence if keeping to mares hurdles.Garde Champetre can be beaten on the x-country.
Tataniano might need a sound surface to produce his best.
Forpaddytheplasterer does not have the TEMPERAMENT to win grade 1 races these days. Don’t believe the form.Cue Card is probably the best novice hurdler seen in decades.
Long Run does not jump well enough at Cheltenham. May need a flat track.
Mad Max also needs to improve his jumping to realise potential.
Little Josh provided a big compliment to Weird Al (for Hennessey), who dead-heated with him at Carlisle.Sunninghillboy’s good round of jumping in the Byrne (second) looks a one off.
Sam Winner already looks a top class juvenile.
Hurricane Fly is just as fragile as ever.
Painfully true!
Just a few Teeny Weeny points Ginge…
Menorah is better than I thought, but still needs to improve a hell of a lot to rival Binocular.
Get Me Out Of Here does not seem in the same form, would not be a surprise to see his handicap mark drop and then go for a second Tote Gold Trophy.
Sanctuaire needs to settle to realise potential.Tataniano might need a sound surface to produce his best.
Forpaddytheplasterer does not have the TEMPERAMENT to win grade 1 races these days. Don’t believe the form.
JohnJJust a few Teeny Weeny points Ginge…
Menorah is better than I thought, but still needs to improve a hell of a lot to rival Binocular.
Get Me Out Of Here does not seem in the same form, would not be a surprise to see his handicap mark drop and then go for a second Tote Gold Trophy.
Sanctuaire needs to settle to realise potential.Tataniano might need a sound surface to produce his best.
Forpaddytheplasterer does not have the TEMPERAMENT to win grade 1 races these days. Don’t believe the form.
JohnJJohn,
Menorah probably has around 10 lbs to make up to be a proper candidate. Quite a bit more to beat an in form Binocular.Forpaddy does have the speed to be bang there with a chance going to the last in the Queen Mum. "Faster" than Master Minded and co. Beaten by just one 2 mile chaser in the 2 mile Championship; and yet he "lacks speed"? Again came there with every chance to win this weekend. Got in front, pricked his ears and said "after you sir".
No matter what the company he keeps, no matter what distance; Paddy will always be the perfect gentleman. Even when winning the Arkle, looked like winning easily before idling and almost caught.If it has not been tried before, what he needs are ear plugs.
Value Is EverythingLittle Josh provided a big compliment to Weird Al (for Hennessey), who dead-heated with him at Carlisle.
Perfectly true as it stands, though the key impression going forward after that race was that Little Josh would be able to withstand any even halfway quick reappearance a hell of a lot better than Weird Al.
The post-race reports just didn’t do justice to how knackered Ian Williams’ charge was after the race, and he did actually look worryingly wobbly for quite some time afterwards until all of 15 minutes’ worth of lashing with water revived him fully.
Strikes me that Weird Al is an animal with a very limited number of huge races in him, and they’ll need spacing out appreciably as this generous, generous performer will continue to practically bottom himself every time against better opposition from hereon.
(Cue a 20l head-in-chest romp to Hennessy glory now…
)I digress. What did I learn from the weekend? Mostly that Double Pride already needs 3m4f-4m handicap chases (prime candidate for a provincial National despite his chasing inexperience); that Black Noddy will dot up in a routine bumper next time if less unintelligent at the business end; and that the open ditch at Uttoxeter is probably making someone a very nice pile of Christmas firewood as we speak.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Zaidpour has huge potential (Aga Khan line) and in a non Cue Card universe would be seen as the 2nd coming.
Chicago Grey is a thoroughly tough and likeable stayer with a chance in any race on decent ground at 3miles+
It always rains on the Sunday of the Open meeting, better ground theories amongst jockeys then multiply.
The Arkle market has an unusual profile at this stage with no obvious candidate emerging yet.
Soft ground at Cheltenham and Adams Island could be a live contender for the 4 miler (or failing that any other staying 3m+ chase on soft/heavy).
Ginge,
I believe Binocular is rated around 173, I would say Menorah will get around 162 for his victory at the weekend, another 10lbs would put him right there IMO.
I would love to see Forpady at Kempton in the King George, good ground also. He reminds me of Kicking King, a decent two miler, but so much better over further.
JohnJ
We won’t know the official verdict on Menorah until next week, but I can report on some significant revised ratings based on the form from the first two days at Cheltenham.
Daves Dream was bumped up 11lbs for his 2M chase win, but didn’t get the biggest rise in his stable, as that went to Aegean Dawn, up from 114 to 135. The unfortunate Dynaste, who finished second to that facile winner has been punished with an 11lb rise.
But much the most remarkable figure is that given to Cue Card, who has been rated 160 on the basis of two novice hurdle victories. That is the highest figure I can ever remember for any novice prior to the festival, and in my view it’s a ludicrous over reaction. In order to achieve that figure, the handicapper also had to raise Dunraven Storm by 12lbs to a rating of 150.
To put that in perspective, Binocular was rated 152 AFTER he’d finished second in the Supreme Novice and won the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Rhinestone Cowboy was rated 157 AFTER finishing third in the Champion Hurdle as a novice.
AP
I totally agree with John J RE Menorah. I had a lot of £ on him Sunday from early in the week & will admit I was very worried during the race with the ground & with him racing SO wide all the way round. If he had not of nodded on landing after the last he would have won far more impressively than he did even giving weight & lengths to every other horse running widest on ground that’s not his preferred.
Even allowing for Hobbs horses running out of their skins at the moment, he loves Cheltenham & I see him as a massive player come March already.
His speed figure on boxing day when he had just turned 5 was exceptional for a novice in comparison to Go Native who so impressively won the Christmas hurdle the same day & was at the top of his form. Menorah went down as 1 to follow that day & proved it in the Supreme.
Sunday was another pointer in my eyes that this horse has a serious chance of going right to the very top.
I have learnt:
Time for Rupert
is a class act and well worth a punt ante post for March
Getmeoutofhere
is pants and no where near good enough at the moment to challenge for Champion Hurdle, and should get over fences as quick as possible, as his handicap mark is obviously too much for him.
Menorah
is a hell of a lot better than i thought and my favourite now for the Champion Hurdle … (although i still fancy
Khyber Kim
)
Long Run
is not as good as people make out, and i always knew his 7/2 down to 2/1 for Paddy Power was farrrrrr too short and a bookies saviour. I definately wont be backing him again this season as his jumping is not good enough for Cheltenham
My big mention in this post goes to
Cue Card
, i have mentioned it several times on the forum, but last festival he was phenomenal in the bumper and destroyed the field … best novice hurdler i have seen for 12 years, since when
Istabraq
was coming up … my dead, DEAD cert for Sumpreme Novice’s
)
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