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I read it and it makes me shudder to think you are working off a 5% profit. That could so easily have been a 5% loss which would have meant you worked for 3000 hours for nothing.
Stepping up your pot to 50,000 won’t help because it’s all relative. Instead of averaging 260 pounds you would average 2500 pounds and then you might not get matched in a lot of cases. Nothing worse when they win and you wanted twice as much on as you got on.
The 5% would become 40,000 but that could easily end up minus 40,000.
I honestly think your treading on thin ice but wish you luck. You should be looking at ways of increasing your profit margin not your stake.
Hi thanks for the input,but firstly i never mentioned how i operate,so how you come to the conclusion about being matched for £2500 is a non starter as for the 5% i feel very confident about that being achievable on my past performance its realistic.So the treading on thin ice does not really come into it.
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Luckyvane
So your problem is; that you increased your bank from 5k to 9k in 1 year over 4 years ago, and you’re confident you can do it regularly, but you can’t see a way to raise the 50k to do it full time?
Luckyvane,
Obviously no idea what your personal circumstances are but may I suggest you are more likely to succeed long-term from punting if you remove an appreciable part of the stress involved by intending it to be responsible for supplying part-of-a-living rather than all-of-a-living i.e practice it knowing you have a less uncertain supplementary income from a ‘proper job’ or other reliable source, in order to guarantee bread on the table.
There seems to be a long-held myth that ‘betting for a living’ is some glamourous route to untold riches and those few who do it the luckiest folk in the world and to be envied by all. Not so. As Grasshopper has alluded to such a life is essentially a boring, monochrome grind; one that requires great strength of character; one that requires a very understanding – or preferably no – family; and (these days) hours coccooned in front of a PC all on your lonesome.
5% net profit accrued from a – presumably – unruined 5K bank turned over nearly eighteen times (88K) are thoroughly healthy figures incidentally, don’t let any naysayers persuade you otherwise, though – admittedly without knowing your number of bets, strike rate or average odds bet – I’d suggest a 10K start-up to be on the safe side
You mention the idea of a 50K bank from which to turn over 750K. Presumably from a similar number of bets annually. Therein then another problem. Would you be comfortable staking 10x what you do now per bet? Personally I just couldn’t operate beyond a certain ‘comfort limit’ even if I was able to raise a bank substantial enough to allow it. A slow increase year-on-year is to be recommended in my opinion, from a bank slowly growing from the addition of the previous year’s profits
If people don’t think you can survive with a single figure ROI I suggest you look up Zeljko Ranogajec
Luckyvane
So your problem is; that you increased your bank from 5k to 9k in 1 year over 4 years ago, and you’re confident you can do it regularly, but you can’t see a way to raise the 50k to do it full time?
I have not got a problem i am comfortable with what i do and know,I was merely asking what different people thought about how you would approach it given the chance ,and this was my opinion.It was a quesstion not a problem.lol
Try a higher turn over of bets using a WIN SMALL, WIN OFTEN approach. This helps if you don’t have a huge bank to start off with and it also lessens the damage done by an outrageous piece of bad luck.
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I read it and it makes me shudder to think you are working off a 5% profit. That could so easily have been a 5% loss which would have meant you worked for 3000 hours for nothing.
Stepping up your pot to 50,000 won’t help because it’s all relative. Instead of averaging 260 pounds you would average 2500 pounds and then you might not get matched in a lot of cases. Nothing worse when they win and you wanted twice as much on as you got on.
The 5% would become 40,000 but that could easily end up minus 40,000.
I honestly think your treading on thin ice but wish you luck. You should be looking at ways of increasing your profit margin not your stake.
Hi thanks for the input,but firstly i never mentioned how i operate,so how you come to the conclusion about being matched for £2500 is a non starter as for the 5% i feel very confident about that being achievable on my past performance its realistic.So the treading on thin ice does not really come into it.
The 2500? Because I bet on Betfair every day albeit only for a few months.
If everything you are betting averages around 3.5 you will probaly get on but what happens if you want to bet a 10/1 shot. If you are having 250 quid on you will probaly get most of it matched at 11 but bet 2500 and you could end up averaging 8 or less.
Take the first race at Southwell today; lets say you want to back Cheery Cat at 11.5 for 2,500. There might be 250 quid available which your money would swallow up then what? Right now you can have 7 quid at that price :0)
I’ve had more than a few large best on Betfair but not at 10/1 in an everyday race. The point is to maintain your 5% profit your average price has to be maintained and by increasing your stake you will cut your own throat. You will also become frustrated when you don’t get the price you want, you’ll get annoyed because you didn’t get 11 and it’s now 8 and end up not betting it then it will win and you’ll be pulling your hair out.
Most of the big money hits around 3 minutes before the off, so you would be in a constant race against time….that’s not a good situation to get yourself into.
Only yesterday I wanted to back Megasue for a bit less than what you are talking about. If memory serves me well she was 1.9 not matched 1.82 not matched 1.8 not matched. The next thing I knew she was 1.69 and the race was off….There simply isn’t a way you are going to average the same prices beeting 2500 pounds a race as you will betting 250 quid a race.
Which means your 5% is gone before you start.
FIST
Where did i ever mention that i would be betting £2,500 on a single race a day, you obviously dont understand the methods used.As for getting the price required, that can be a problem what ever the stake.
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I honestly think your treading on thin ice but wish you luck.
Fist offering your opinion on this thread could be compared to asking the designer of the Titanic to build an unsinkable ship!
Your problem was you were treading on ice thick enough to support an arctic lorry,and yet you still fell through it!Geez you still harping on about that? Without mentioning one or two others how many big race winners have I posted on here at huge prices since then?
Zenyatta 6/1, Deep Purple 4/1 and 16/1 Denman, 7/1 (name what a friend as the only danger) Kalhari King 20/1 Well Chief 11/2 Get Me Out Of Here 16/1, Kauto Star 2/1 6/4, not to mention the Polquin Razor Royal sf/c.
Take more than a block of ice to sink this bunny
Would you be comfortable staking 10x what you do now per bet? Personally I just couldn’t operate beyond a certain ‘comfort limit’ even if I was able to raise a bank substantial enough to allow it. A slow increase year-on-year is to be recommended in my opinion, from a bank slowly growing from the addition of the previous year’s profits
Excellent point Drone.
Several friends to whom I give the occasional tip to have suggested I raise my stakes as I’ve had several pretty good years recently. I’ve start each of the last six or seven NH seasons with £1000 kitty or 100 points, I work on £10 a point. I’m not on Betfair, mostly I bet on line with one of "The Big 3" and sometimes spread them around the local betting shops, there are plenty in town not too far from us
I suppose I could afford to start a season with £10,000 That would increase my "point" to £100 but here’s the rub, I rarely have a bigger bet than 200 points/£2000 If I’d been working on a X10 (FOR EXAMPLE) would I have had the bottle to have £20,000 to win £13333 on Diamond Harry last Saturday.
I don’t think so in all honesty
On the other hand if I had started with £100 points I’d be well over a hundred grand in front this year…or would I? Which of my losing bets would I have not backed at x10? Several I think
And Which of my winning bets would I have not backed at x10? probably just as many I’d say, I don’t think I’d could have put £2500 ew on Tidal Bay last time out for starters- Total Posts 17716
FIST
Where did i ever mention that i would be betting £2,500 on a single race a day, you obviously dont understand the methods used.As for getting the price required, that can be a problem what ever the stake.
So I can only assume you would be increasing your 2 or 3 bets to 20 or 30 bets per week or why would you want to incease you pot ?
If that is the case there’s a very good chance your % of winners will drop drastically.
Please enlighten me if I am missing something here.
Fist wrote
I bet on Betfair every day albeit only for a few months.
Fist, If I tried that I’d be in the poorhouse in a couple of months, I’d say you are backing FAR too many horse to make a decent profit, either that or you are far better at picking winners than I am!!
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If people don’t think you can survive with a single figure ROI I suggest you look up Zeljko Ranogajec
He isn’t exactly dealing with a 100K turnover or 800K for that matter. Zeljko’s turnover is in the 500mill+ zone. He employs over 100 souls to do all the grunt work. He gets massive kickbacks on turnover from the Oz Tote. His final figure has contributions from areas others can only dream of. Not everyone has the patience or nerve to raise their capital via a lottery or card counting either.
The most certain way to profit while avoiding being a low percentage return turnover chaser is by dramatically reducing the number of bets one makes IMO. Look for the very best of good things across a wider range of events but deal with the highest volume and quality you can find. My best results last year were the Arc antepost market and XFactor winner.
At the moment I’m just happy that my bot makes £30 a day on fields where I never study and virtually never hear/see a race. Temptation is out of my hands. I have more time to learn something about this jumps caper.
FIST
Where did i ever mention that i would be betting £2,500 on a single race a day, you obviously dont understand the methods used.As for getting the price required, that can be a problem what ever the stake.
So I can only assume you would be increasing your 2 or 3 bets to 20 or 30 bets per week or why would you want to incease you pot ?
If that is the case there’s a very good chance your % of winners will drop drastically.
Please enlighten me if I am missing something here.
Hi Fist the point being when you divide the £2500 into an average of 5 races then divide that into as many selections viable for each race, you can now see that what you are saying about getting a large amount on A SELECTION does not come into it.This is just an example.
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Would you be comfortable staking 10x what you do now per bet? Personally I just couldn’t operate beyond a certain ‘comfort limit’ even if I was able to raise a bank substantial enough to allow it. A slow increase year-on-year is to be recommended in my opinion, from a bank slowly growing from the addition of the previous year’s profits
Excellent point Drone.
Several friends to whom I give the occasional tip to have suggested I raise my stakes as I’ve had several pretty good years recently. I’ve start each of the last six or seven NH seasons with £1000 kitty or 100 points, I work on £10 a point. I’m not on Betfair, mostly I bet on line with one of "The Big 3" and sometimes spread them around the local betting shops, there are plenty in town not too far from us
I suppose I could afford to start a season with £10,000 That would increase my "point" to £100 but here’s the rub, I rarely have a bigger bet than 200 points/£2000 If I’d been working on a X10 (FOR EXAMPLE) would I have had the bottle to have £20,000 to win £13333 on Diamond Harry last Saturday.
I don’t think so in all honesty
On the other hand if I had started with £100 points I’d be well over a hundred grand in front this year…or would I? Which of my winning bets would I have not backed at x10? Several I think
And Which of my losing bets would I have not backed at x10? probably just as many I’d say, I don’t think I’d could have put £2500 ew on Tidal Bay last time out for startersThat’s what it all about CS is having the bottle to take that leap. When steppng into the unknown like that it also affects your way of thinking. Tight now you might fancy a 2/1 shot to turn over a 4/5 favourite but when it comes to having 20k on as sure as hell your mind will convince you the 4/5 shot will win.
You have got to totally disregard the pound sign and think of it as nothing but numbers and thats about as difficult as convincing yourself you can walk if you have no legs.
Many avergae punters do exceptionally well because they bet within their comfort zone. Take that away from them and sheer panic sets in.
The first big bet I ever had was in a 5 runner Hurdle. There were 2 high class horses with very similar name and form. I think both had "Hills" in their names but damned if I can remember……..I picked one then it was the other and that went on all day until I placed the bet 3k at 7/4 on my originl choice. When the off was announce I turned to jelly with a million thoughts going through my head.
It took me years for that feeing of insecurity to disappear but it not just puting money on that you need to get used to it’s being able to handle the losses.
I did that at Doncaster when I lost 6k on Gembridge Jupiter when he broke a blood vessell and din’t have enough money on me for fish and chips on the way home…..I couldn’t help but laugh at myself but I had no regrets and found myself for the first time after losing a large sum looking ahead and not back.
I’d give fair warning to any novice punter that everything changes when stakes go up. Unless you realy don’t care if you lose then you are in for a rocky ride.
We would all like to be like JP who would have 40k at 12/1 like you would have 400 on. The difference is you’d be thinking if this wins I’ll have 5k but if it loses I only have this left, whereas JP would be wondering what’s for tea.
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Fist wrote
I bet on Betfair every day albeit only for a few months.
Fist, If I tried that I’d be in the poorhouse in a couple of months, I’d say you are backing FAR too many horse to make a decent profit, either that or you are far better at picking winners than I am!!
A wise man once said look before you leap
Betfair is only part of what I do and who mentioned finding winners?
You obviously missed the spreadsheet I posted a few months back
Fist wrote…
That’s what it all about CS is having the bottle to take that leap. When steppng into the unknown like that it also affects your way of thinking. Tight now you might fancy a 2/1 shot to turn over a 4/5 favourite but when it comes to having 20k on as sure as hell your mind will convince you the 4/5 shot will win.
SPOT ON. One of my most sucessful bets this year was WEIRD AL first time out this year, I’d intended to back Knockara Beau in the race but had strong info late in the day that suggested Weird Al would win, I ended up with £200 ew at 20-1, but would I have deserted my original (strong) fancy Knockara Beau if I was laying out £4000? propbably not!!
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