"What a bunch of Rankers!"

[carlisle]

Hi everyone

thanks to dave jay the vdw spreadsheet is ready.  PM me your email if you want a copy.

byefrom<br>carlisle

ps if you are new to VDW then click on this http://www.racingnet.co.uk/rationale.php

[class tells]

sorry but what is pm short for

[Matron]

The internal "Messenger" service – near the top where it says "Welcome" – your user name.

Just "click-on" the "Messenger" box.

Regards- Matron<br>:cool:

[carlisle]

PM=private message<br>(click on Messenger)

[carlisle]

Hi gang

anyone found it useful?

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

[Formath]

My system will not open it so I havn’t been able to try it out. Most likely my fault as I admit to being a technoprat :(

[carlisle]

Hi Formath

did you download it ok, and have you got Excel?

I think it’s a darling, so you’re missing out.  Let’s sort it.

byefrom<br>carlisle

"Well done you BLUES!"<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 6:43 am on May 9, 2007)

[Formath]

Thanks for that carlisle.

I will get my grandson to try and sort it for me first (he is renovating a mini in my garage so he owes me for being a B nuisance)..<br>It has downloaded but I can’t open it.

[carlisle]

Hi Formath

quite funny the other day….. you ventured on to the main board to discuss VALUE, and Alan Potts gave you a good kicking.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

[Formath]

Hi carlisle,<br>Having been married for over 50 years it was water off a ducks back as I have been done over by an expert many times lol.<br>It’s just opinion anyway, I have 2 races just a little later that seem to meet the requirements of the formula I published. Just coverted ‘informed opinion’ of the percentage chance to fractional odds and added an increment for over-round to identify ‘realistic’ odds, so we will see ow it goes:

Kelso 8.10<br>Telemoss 2/1<br>Tufty Hopper 9/4

Kelso 8.40<br>Guns And Butter 6/4<br>Castletown 6/4

[carlisle]

Hi Formath

I don’t think horse racing stands up to the rigour of intensive study. A horse only has to have a minute advantage at the line to emerge the victor. In the less competative races most of the horse barely deserve a price. This is a bold statement, I know. I have been toying with the idea of splitting the field into three camps.

1. Good chance       remaining% divided amongst them<br>2. Some chance      2.00% each<br>3. Slim chance        0.25% each

What do you think?

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 6:40 am on May 10, 2007)

[dave jay]

I’m glad you like the spread sheet carlisle .. are you having fun ?

Strange the way AP went on about value and statistical approaches, on that thread .. him being an ex-computer programmer, or something.

[Formath]

Hi carlisle,

In general I have to agree with yout that it is impossible to quantify horses ability coming up with a number and therefore a percentage chance when measured against other runners in a race. However, everybody does it as there doesn’t seem to be a better way – the official handicapper, ratings experts etc.

As I stated on the main board it seems to me it is illogical to seek winners beyond the true odds of 1 less than the number of runners in a race. Why should anyone give you longer odds than that if those horses have any chance of winning. I checked the 20 UK mainland races today and only 1 won from the long division of the betting, Carribean Coral, in what was an open handicap.

This then more or less fits in with your theory and incidentally that of VDW with his first 5/6 in the betting forecast, but in a more sophisticated manner.

Perhaps what we should try to do is price those in the short betting division of a race as representing the 100% chance and forget the longer odds completely?

The fact is it ia a market and you must allot selections a price that you are prepared to trade at otherwise you are operating in the dark.

Now I am going to duck down behind the parapet as I am expecting a lot of flak coming my way :biggrin:

[Formath]

Re. my last post on this thread, ever prepared to be a member of the ‘forlorn hope’ I have attempted to price up the Wetherby 7.40 selecting those from the bookies odds shorter than 6/1. Shortest acceptable odds for trading:

RPR opinion (Ratings converted to odds + some overround)<br>Vinmix De Bessy 8/13 (2nd 6/4)<br>Karo De Vindecy 11/8 (3rd 11/4)<br>Mighty Fine 17/2? (Won 7/1)

Daily Mail Formcast opinion (Ratings converted to odds + some overround)<br>Vincent De Bessy 8/11<br>Karo de Vindecy 11/8<br>Mighty Fine 6/1

(Edited by Formath at 7:55 pm on May 10, 2007)

[carlisle]

Hi dave jay

who needs a girlfriend when you have got a really good spreadsheet!  The VLOOKUP function is cool.

I haven’t looked too deeply into VDW’s methods yet, I simply think the ranking approach suits my way of analysing horse racing.

I have developed the following columns:

gdc        (going, distance & course)<br>sr           (strike rate)<br>class      (as per original)<br>fcp         (Racing Post fc price)<br>speed     (my version of Solidus)

It’s 90% automated so it doesn’t take too long to do.

20pts marks for each with 2pt gaps<br>gdc get 60pts with 2pt gaps       (3 x 20 = 60)<br>speed gets 30pts with 3pt gaps<br>Max total = 150

Formath I get some nice printouts, but I need to price them up effectively. Which is far from straightforward.

I just thought if I could easily slot the field into one of the three camps that would be a good start.

Last night the final race at Ayr produced……..

1 Goodnight Mr Bond    (1st)<br>2 Bailieborough            (2nd)<br>3 Emerald Bay             (3rd)

Unfortunately the bookies was empty, but I went home full of the joys of spring clutching my printout.

byefrom<br>carlisle

"it’s evolving"<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 5:38 am on May 12, 2007)

[Author]

Posts