Wesley Ward to have Brocklesbury runner

[Gingertipster]

nwalton wrote:

i think it is excessive

I’d be interested to know What have you rated Sutter County and why?

Value Is Everything

[nwalton]

on your first point,my grandma is not to clever,to busy reading the SL in english lessons

[Gingertipster]

nwalton wrote:

well it is that simple if a horse dont go on the going(imo of course) which he had tried on a few occasions.
Again imo the going is one of if not the biggest factor in selecting a bet.I suppose others have differing methods

You said earlier in your post the horse was “a million”.

I could be wrong about the actual prices in this story, but it did happen: Once – at Goodwood – A racing pal of mine said “I really like this R…. today, what do you think”? The horse was around 5/1 second fav in the paper. I said “R….’s got a great chance on form, but imo is unlikely to act on the very soft ground”. I had him priced up in my tissue @ 14/1 (had disappointed on soft before). Left my mate reading through the form and went to the paddock. Coming back, I looked at the Tote. Price for R…. was 23/1. So, although it was unlikely to act on the ground – 23/1 imo under-estimated its chance (quite a bit bigger than my tissue price of 14/1- so I backed it! My mate didn’t … and guess who won? :lol:

“Value is everything”.

I did have to buy the drinks that day.

If a horse doesn’t seem to act on the ground, yet is top rated and is “a million”, I’d expect the expert to tip it… (imo).

Value Is Everything

[nwalton]

the old saying something is a ‘million’ means it has no chance.

The horse didn’t act on the going(not doesn’t seem to act as you put) How many chances do you give a horse on certain goings? I dont just go on one or two,this horse had tried it 4/5 times and ran poorly,so for me it was a million.

I certainly wouldn’t rate the horse at 100(i would probably have it in around mid to high 80s )but if the boys from halifax say its worth 100 who am i to argue.

I will leave it there,you have your way of working and i have mine,for me,my selections are based very much on ground.

[nwalton]

(imo)

[raymo61]

Talking about horses going on certain ground reminds me of the occasion I decided to treat my in laws and took them to Royal Ascot 2004.

Being a nelly knowall I proceeded to inform them that sadlers Wells horses needed give in the ground and being Good to Firm that day Double Obsession could not possibly win on that ground!!

Imagine my horror when it trotted up in the Ascot Stakes at 25/1 and the mother in law has never forgiven me to this day!!

By the way the horse never won again!!

P.S. What about Bill Turner in the Brocklesby.He often gets a speedy sort ready for this ?

[TheBluesBrother]

Giving a horse a 100+ rating at this time of year is quite frankly ridiculous.
One reason I do not add WFA is because it is so far out, and they are in the process of changing it.

My top ten 2yo’s
26-Mar-16 Kempton (AW) Chupalla 6/5F Mark Johnston 61
25-Mar-16 Wolverhampton (AW) Sutter County 3/1 Mark Johnston 60
20-Mar-16 Curragh (IRE) Mister Trader 25/1 D J Bunyan 58
26-Mar-16 Kempton (AW) Boater (IRE) 8/13F Mark Johnston 53
20-Mar-16 Curragh (IRE) Comhghairdeas (IRE) 10/1 Andrew Slattery 43
26-Mar-16 Kempton (AW) Stormy Clouds (IRE) 5/2 Richard Hannon 41
20-Mar-16 Curragh (IRE) Callender (IRE) 13/2 P J Prendergast 37
25-Mar-16 Wolverhampton (AW) Stringybark Creek 25/1 Mick Channon 30
26-Mar-16 Kempton (AW) Rapacity Alexander (IRE) 5/1 David Evans 30
26-Mar-16 Kempton (AW) Playful Trickster (IRE) 7/1 Tom Dascombe 29

Full list:
Flat2016:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=9533a2f7-3c41-56f8-1031-817a9b49d777

Mike.

[nwalton]

drawn right up against rails,dettori up,will they be asking for odds?

[nwalton]

dams only two wins came on very soft going,over 8+.
Must learn to put it all on one post,instead of multiple postings.sorry

[raymo61]

I think it will be short NW!!
But not for me!!

[nwalton]

not for me either Raymo,i see M.Johnston’s got one in there a colt by Choisir,Fahey a Zebedee and Channon with a winker Watson colt.So will be worth taping for future reference

[stevecaution]

Wesley Ward has another filly running tomorrow.

The 1.55 at Kempton sees New Trier, a daughter of Holy Roman Emperor who was a bargain basement four and a half grand purchase.

I read that Ward has five horses stabled at Manton at the moment but I didn’t get the other names.

Runner up to Sutter County, Stringybark Creek is entered in the Kempton race and gives us a quick chance to evaluate the merits of Johnston’s 100 rated winner and see how he compares to the Ward filly.

An interesting contest for a Kempton maiden!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[apracing]

To add to that Kempton interest, the field includes Tomily (Hannon) who is a half sister to Fig Roll, beaten a head in this same contest five years ago and a daughter of Cake, who won an AW maiden at Lingfield on her debut for the same stable.

And Dolokhov (S Moore), who was sent off favourite in a big field at Saint Cloud in the neatly named 25,000 euro Prix de Debut last week – presumably the booking of Soumillon influenced the market, but Dolokhov was pulled up after losing his action.

[stevecaution]

Of course, Johnston himself has an Elusive Quality colt (Dusker)running and will have an idea through Sutter County where he stands with the Channon horse. Dusker is a January foal and could be forward.

Ed Dunlop runs a son of Kodiac, Makman, and would have a right to expect some ability, as this one cost 130,000 Guineas as a yearling.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[raymo61]

Crucial Moment and Springwood for me!!

BUT like everyone else I am guessing!!

I still think this Ward horse will be under priced !!

[nwalton]

some interesting fayre tomorrow at both kempton/doncaster

[stevecaution]

Create A Dream 5/4 and New Trier 13/8 are the best current prices for those who fancy a Wesley Ward double tomorrow. Unsurprisingly, the Mark Johnston horses are next best in both races.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Author]

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