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Toronado’s on a slight drift and I’ve read plenty of negativity about his chances on other forums, even our old pal Fist said he wouldn’t back him to win with stolen money and the two clowns on ATR weaver and Harvey didn’t rate his chances. For me though he’s a cert whatever way the race is run. The most likely thing that will happen is they go flat out from the get go and this as long as the beast jumps the gate will play right into his strengths as he has a high cruising speed and long stride the others in front will come backwards and the closers will close but not as quick as Toronado who will have the quickest turn of foot out of them all, not only did he make Kingman pull out the stops with unique fractions to get past him but if the Lasix improve him he’ll win by 3 lengths.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Back again…….
This season bets will be more limited than normal as home circumstances mean I have little time at present to put in enough effort warrant to put up selections so I’ll just be focusing on a few to follow.
Windshear is up today and has already shown decent form last year where his 4th here at Doncaster in the Leger was good course form and the drop back to 12f would be his ideal distance imo, that 3yo form would be a bonus as his pedigree and conformation both should see him improve at four. The Hannon’s are usually good at getting them fit FTO but it’s always a niggling doubt and small stakes would be advised with the danger according to the market being Cloudscape who has had a run already and team Gosden hit the ground running last term. Windshear is the better horse however and with weights to his advantage gives him a little compensation to the lack of a run.
2.55 Doncaster – WINDSHEAR 13/8 skybet £10.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Thanks Tommy
100% record this year, my target it is.
15/8 bog, Levey done well to get Cloudscape to tighten up but although it looked like a few were going to catch him it never looked like he would be caught…….
+£18.75
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Nice one Nath! Good luck to you. Hope all is well mate.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Peacock is due out on Saturday at Kempton in what looks a good chance to get back to winning ways.
His last run looks good considering he was out paced but made up ground hand over fist despite getting hampered and the two horses ahead of him that day were Toocoolforschool who won the Mill Reef next time out and Nafaqa who was 4th at Royal Ascot behind Richard Pankhurst despite being green and leaving the stalls a few seconds behind the rest and ended the season only a length down behind Elm Park in the Royal Lodge.
I think Peacock is a good horse and any step up in trip will help his chances.
His forecast price is 4/5 for Saturday and at level weights that looks not bad. We’ll see what he opens up at.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Peacock is due out on Saturday at Kempton in what looks a good chance to get back to winning ways.
His last run looks good considering he was out paced but made up ground hand over fist despite getting hampered and the two horses ahead of him that day were Toocoolforschool who won the Mill Reef next time out and Nafaqa who was 4th at Royal Ascot behind Richard Pankhurst despite being green and leaving the stalls a few seconds behind the rest and ended the season only a length down behind Elm Park in the Royal Lodge.
I think Peacock is a good horse and any step up in trip will help his chances.
His forecast price is 4/5 for Saturday and at level weights that looks not bad. We’ll see what he opens up at.4/5 might be wishful thinking Nathan. As you say, he’s got good bits of form in the context of Saturday’s race and he’s got 13 lbs in hand on official ratings.
Sometimes these forecast prices are laughable. I think Gosden’s Jazzi Top was about 3/1 the other day and went off at 5/6 in the real world, with no non-runners either!
Marco Botti’s Azraff was quite progressive late last season and ran behind Maftool, who has had a good enough time in Dubai this spring. He may have more improvement yet and the stable has been going well enough.
The once raced Ralph Beckett gelding Master Of Irony should be open to plenty of improvement in my mind. This Qatar Racing owned horse was slowly away on his only start and looked a bit gangly and awkward in the early stages. Jamie Spencer seemed to be bumping him along intermittently and coming into the final turn you wouldn’t have given a lot for his chances. Taken wide he started to get the hang of it though, and he ran on to good effect, winning in quite good style I thought. He’s plum last on the ratings but I would keep an eye on him with time, experience and the extra furlong all likely to make him more competitive than his rating would suggest.
Interesting to see what the odds will be.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks Vtc.
I notice Master of Irony is out and the forecast price of Peacock down to 8/13.
I’ve put a price of 2.26(5/4) for £20 up on betfair, it will be unmatched I would of thought but you have to try.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Opened up with betfair sportsbook at 8/13, not a bad price but I’ll wait and see if I can get a bit better.
Nice to read Hannon say he has wintered well.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Thanks Vtc.
I notice Master of Irony is out and the forecast price of Peacock down to 8/13.
I’ve put a price of 2.26(5/4) for £20 up on betfair, it will be unmatched I would of thought but you have to try.Pity Master Of Irony is out, it would have been more interesting and Timeform gave him a decent four star preview.
I see a couple of bits of 8/11 on Peacock now. I’m not an odds-on backer but 4/5 is sort of tempting as a price in the circumstances.
Was this race run two weeks later last season? I notice Zampa Manos was given as the winner then, but the race date was April 19th?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Without Master of Irony it looks a straight race so I’ve taken the 8/11 with betfred best odds guaranteed.
The only worry I foresee is if they go slow as I think Peacock lacks that burst of speed when the pace quickens especially against speedier types and a four runner affair can become tactical but he should have enough in hand anyway although like you said before Steve the Botti horse did win twice before a fair 4th behind Maftool.4.35 Kempton – PEACOCK 8/11 Betfred bog £11.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Without Master of Irony it looks a straight race so I’ve taken the 8/11 with betfred best odds guaranteed.
The only worry I foresee is if they go slow as I think Peacock lacks that burst of speed when the pace quickens especially against speedier types and a four runner affair can become tactical but he should have enough in hand anyway although like you said before Steve the Botti horse did win twice before a fair 4th behind Maftool.4.35 Kempton – PEACOCK 8/11 Betfred bog £11.00
Are you doubling up with Hannon’s Shagah in the 4.00 race Nathan. Peacock and Shagah has a ring to it.
You can get 11/8 on Shagah with the Charlie Appleby Very Special Evens or shorter favourite, but 8lbs behind the Hannon horse on the ratings.
It’s a tricky little race to be taking odds on for me anyway, although the Appleby stable have been doing well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I do like a Shagah (wink, wink) but a combination of Appleby form, what a signing that was for the boys in blue and Hannon’s comment about her didn’t fill me with confidence – ‘she can be a bit keen, so Frankie’s (Dettori) priority will be to get her to relax.’
Not sure who will make the running in Peacock’s race? you would think the Johnston horse but he’s either slowly away or sleeping. I notice the horse Azraff beat in his race before his 4th Moonlighthenavigator won today. Maybe it will pay Hughes to jump out and set his own fractions, we’ll see.
If I was tempted to play a double it would be Anwar in the first. The vibes were good about her last week and the experience for that and quick return would suggest she’s ready. I can remember Hannon being asked about what time in the season he sends out his good ones and does he hold the better ones back for later in the season and he said something along the lines of they run when they are ready so it seems Anwar is a fast maturing type or showing good stuff at home. She’s around the evens mark but 11/8 on the sportsbook. (make that 5/4 in the time it’s taking me to post, think the forum is having a funny five minutes)
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Steve is Very Special not bin Suroor’s horse?
In which case lump on the Shag….!!
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Peacock return at 5/6 sp
I think they set it up for him by going quick enough, playing into Peacock’s favour as he needs at least a mile and every yard of that, I’d be surprised if they drop him back in trip. I didn’t take a look but thought to myself I reckon the 2.26 would of been matched in running had I left it in there as Peacock was slow out and trailed by a few lengths in the early part of the race.
Overall score +£27.92
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I’m sticking with Windshear in the John Porter stakes tomorrow at Newbury. I’m not overly confident but unless there is any non runners it’s the dead 8 for each/way purposes for a bet to nothing as I’m confident about his place chances and with it being bog and bet365’s offer of back a 4/1 winner get a riskfree bet I guess it’s worth the chance as I believe he isn’t to far behind Romsdal and has further improvement from his reappearance to come. Stoute’s horse is good but worth taking on first time out as the yard blow cold more often than not/hot. Another boost for the selection is Hughes jumping off Pethers Moon who is a decent horse at the distance.
John Porter stakes – WINDSHEAR 4/1 bog £5.00 Each/way 1/4 odds 1,2,3 bet365 4/1 special
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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