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The BHA have released the Anglo/Irish rankings/ratings for 2010/2011.
Headlines here –
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/post383882.html
The first thing that cathches the eye is the differential between the top hurdler Big Buck’s (1lb clear of Hurricane Run whi is, in turn, the highest rated Champion since Istabraq). Now I’m not a handicapping expert so I’m not sure if there is an ‘in-built’ differential between chasers and hurdlers but, if not, I am at a loss to explain why a horse who has treated his opponents with utter disdain over hurdles lags over half a stone behind the best jumper, Long Run on 182. I’ve reproduced some comments from Timeform Head Of Handicapping on the issue below (bearing in mind that these are BHA and notr Timeform ratings).
It may be that the performances, in terms of horses beaten, weight carried, etc, has rendered it impossible to rate BB any higher but it seems incongruous. Perhaps the h’cappers are suffering now from having rated Kauto Star and Denman too highly in the past? Or perhaps it illustrates a long distance chaser bias (as with the percieved middle distance bias over the falt).
And would you really rate Sizing Europe ahead of Hurricane Run?
Chasers over-rated IMO.
Excerpt from Simon Rowlands blog on Betfair – http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/handicappers-corner-variety-is-the-spice-of-life-090511.html
I do not compile the ratings myself but I am involved in trying to ensure that their level makes cross-generational and cross-disciplinary comparisons valid. This involves regular checking of the levels over and above the standardisation procedures that are in place on a daily basis.
While the ratings of the leading hurdlers have lagged behind the leading chasers, particularly so in recent years, there are a few factors to consider as to why this might be valid.
Firstly, recent years have seen some phenomenal performances from top chasers, winning by wide margins and/or under big weights. Kauto Star won a King George by a distance, Master Minded won a Champion Chase by 19 lengths and 16.
Since 2004, no horse has won the Champion Hurdle or World Hurdle by as much as 4 lengths and none of the top hurdlers has been tested off a high mark in a handicap in the way that Denman and Kauto Star have.
Once horses achieve high and relatively unimpeachable ratings it can have a small knock-on effect to other horses in the division, as input ratings (what the horses had achieved previously) and position figures (the concept that we cannot be sure of the precise differences between horses but we can rank them in the “correct” order) should be an important part of any handicapping approach.
It is also true that many horses that might have made big careers for themselves as hurdlers – Sizing Europe, Long Run and Denman to mention just three from recent memory – are switched to chasing before their absolute merit has been confirmed as hurdlers. There is greater prestige in the chasing game.
There is no glass ceiling for hurdlers or chasers. Hurdlers have achieved ratings into the 180s before now and probably will do again. But they are likely to need to beat good-class rivals handsomely or on unfavourable terms to merit this. That simply has not been happening of late.
For many years the top chaser did not get out of the 170s. I suspect that “normal service will be resumed” at some stage and we will look back on this era and realise that it was something of a golden one in the sport.
Simon Rowlands makes the critical point; chasing is more prestigious. If Big Bucks could jump he would be chasing, if he was fast enough he would be 2-mile hurdling, and not beating up the vastly inferior competition in 3-mile hurdles. Rating him above the Fly is absurd.
of course it is.
Switch it around, at least Big Buck’s has been tested in a Hennessy, Hurricane Fly hasn’t. Surely then, we can rate BB far superior to Hurricane Fly on that basis alone (not to mention BB’s graded novice chase win), it’s not like both haven’t laughed at inferior rivals over hurdles.
As for Long Run, he beat horses in serious decline roused for one last hurrah, wonderful. There’s no doubting he’s a brilliant young chaser, but it seems fashionable and "safe" to dismiss just how brilliant in every respect Big Buck’s is, and I personally think that is weak as piss stuff, i don’t care who writes it.
Betfairs post holds some water with me. Staying hurdling has always held less presige than 2m hurdles or staying chasers in my mind.
Strength in depth is probably a decent indicator. The Fly has seen off Peddlers Cross, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Solwhit, Menorah, – all credible potential Champions in different peoples opinions. Big Bucks has seen off Grand Crus – and thats really about it. Not BB’s fault – but the strength in depth is never there in the Staying Hurdle division.
Thats only my opinion mind you – and i agree the chasers are over-rated.
Simon Rowlands makes the critical point; chasing is more prestigious. If Big Bucks could jump he would be chasing, if he was fast enough he would be 2-mile hurdling, and not beating up the vastly inferior competition in 3-mile hurdles. Rating him above the Fly is absurd.
Big Bucks can jump allright as will be proved eventually. Not his fault his owner and trainer has other horses to take those prizes so no need to move yet
He’s going for a 4th World Hurdle, Roddy. Or do you know something the rest of us don’t?
No special knowledge,just for sure eventually he will be allowed to take his chance over fences again,and in my view will silence the doubters of his ability to jump. But now it seems we are all entralled to see how long he can dominate distance hurdles. Mind you ,we bought one at the sales today that may test him in about three years time.Hope and pray time again.
I do agrre that Long Run is seriously over-rated; obviously KS and Denman were in a serious decline. There is room for improvemnet, of course, on the bare form at present the ratings are far too high.
It will be interesting to see if the novices such as Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port can come back from injury, as they beat LR comprehensively. WA was the most impressive winner of the 3-mile novice I’ve ever seen; he fairly scampered up the hill. Any news how his recovery is going?I very much doubt we’ll ever see big Buck’s chasing. I think after the third World Hurdle win that Nicholls and Stewart both said fairly categorically that he wouldn’t be asked to go back over a fence.
Which is a shame as if he’d learned a bit after a few efforts then what a chaser he might have made.
Rating Long Run on 182 is taking the piss. It seems very fashionable to over-rate the top racehorses atm, Long Run has beaten FA. Before his GC win, he was just another unproven dodgy jumper who won a weak KG.
The Handicapper has given BB a rating, then thought he should give Long Run a few pounds more, as he’s a chaser. Voila….or that’s how it seems.
Is it me, or is there some sort of bias against certain horse types when giving ratings? Staying hurdlers, stayers on the flat, etc Yet 1m2f-1m4f horses, staying chasers get the higher ratings.
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The Handicapper has given BB a rating, then thought he should give Long Run a few pounds more, as he’s a chaser. Voila….or that’s how it seems.
Is it me, or is there some sort of bias against certain horse types when giving ratings? Staying hurdlers, stayers on the flat, etc Yet 1m2f-1m4f horses, staying chasers get the higher ratings.
I’m not sure that it’s bias, so much as the weight of historical evidence, about the practical reasons why horses end up running in these less prestigious divisions.
Group 1 sprinters are running over 5/6F because they don’t stay a mile. Group 1 long distance hurdlers are running over 3 miles because they don’t have enough speed to be champions at a mile less.
Don’t forget that
Big Bucks
is only running in 3M hurdles because he was a relative failure over fences. Proof of the pudding, I think!
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