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Some might consider it a bit early to be looking at epsom, but feel the need to lay my cards out while the prices are still there. Of all the flat antepost markets this year as I find this one the easiest looking to pick out, the 1,000 guineas looks like a strong division this year, and the 2000 guineas all rotates around ground conditions for me. A derby winner doesn’t really stand out to me in that market as yet and I think the betting will point that one out in time, probably before the trials.
I think Listen looks pretty hard to beat and 7-1 is a brilliant price on her, as if she gets there fit and well I can’t see her starting at any better than 2-1 (even money if she wins the musidora easily enough beforehand), don’t think O’brien will try her in the guineas, he has won two oaks with daughters of sadlers wells and her 2yo form, which is better than his previous two winners, points to her being an oaks horse. Furthermore O’Brien has only ever won the 1,000 guineas once with Virgina Waters who was bred for 1 mile, out of kingmambo (sire of russian rhythm, bluemamba, divine proportions and other very good miler fillies). I may be wrong but I can’t remember O’brien ever running a filly in the guineas bred from Sadlers Wells.
Indeed the post race quotes from Murtagh and O’brien would suggest shes well regarded and oaks bound:29 Sep 2007 Ascot (8Sft,RPR115)
She stays further, so perhaps she’s the next Peeping Fawn. – Johnny Murtagh, jockey; Up until about 10 days ago our two-year-olds were running well enough, but the kick wasn’t there, but I believe it’s there now. It was a great ride by Johnny. She’s a brave filly, and when the gap appeared she put her head down and battled for it. That’s the hallmark of a good filly. I think she’s exciting. – Aidan O’Brien, trainerWould also consider a safety bet on Jim Bolgers filly LUSH lASHES, who won the goffs fillies million on debut, is bred from galileo and so should get the trip. When I look at her I can’t help but think of bolgers filly Galatee who emerged from nowhere to become favorite for the 2006 oaks only to be pulled out two days before. Lush Lashes is due out on Sunday in the Group3 Park Express stakes over 1 mile on soft/heavy ground and should come away from it cut for both markets. 16-1 looks a good price which could well be short lived.
I know trying to guestimate improvement isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but last year I always thought the derby looked like being won by authorized or teofilo as they were just so much stronger than anything else in that division and these two in the oaks look that way this year. I think if you can have a horse who looks to be up to a 120ish rating by Oaks day then you’ve more than likely got the winner, Listen looks up to that, 5lbs improvement over the 2-3 winter on a sadlers wells with a good 2yo attitude is pretty expectable. Lush Lashes has plenty of improvement to make but think she will have a fair bit in hand as she is lightly raced. In a weaker year an oaks winner will probably emerge from the trials but think we have a strong winter fav this year.
Has anyone else got any fancies for the race?
Interesting post, Bulwark.
Do you know what o’Brien has for Chester in May?
I generally get some good pointers from that meeting for Epsom.
Interesting post, Bulwark.
Do you know what o’Brien has for Chester in May?
I generally get some good pointers from that meeting for Epsom.
O’brien’s traditional derby route is the Ballysax Stakes followed by the Derrinstown Trial at leopardstown. He won these with both High Chaparral and Galileo, and indeed he sent Dylan Thomas (who only managed third at epsom) for only the Derrinstown, which suggested to me he was late to come to hand. O’brien also sent Yeats on this route (although he was injured just before epsom), and Sinndar took this route.
Think O’briens first ever runners at Chester were Almighty and Gypsy King in 2005, when he came over looking for better ground than they were experiencing in ireland that year. Gypsy King was his main hope that year though, but was still a bit backward.
Chester can throw up some decent Epsom horses from time to time, Oath, Light Shift, and Kris Kin all scored there before winning at epsom.
Generally though the best races with a view to epsom are the biggest strongest races. Most Derby Trials are generally Group3s or Listed, but there are two Group 2 trials, one in Ireland (the derrinstown) and one in England (The Dante at York). There is also the Group2 Prix Greffulhe in France which Visindar took en-route to epsom but there are very few french contenders at epsom.
Of the last ten epsom derby winners 6 have come from the dante or the derrinstown, two from chester, one from lingfield and one from the guineas.
The Dante and Derrinstown usually attract high class fields, and come last of the derby trials and so they are usually where you would send your potential derby horse if you think they are top drawer and unlikely to be beaten by anything else. This could be why they are usually the best trials.The Musidora at York is usually a classy Oaks Trial and has attracted some really nice fillies in recent years, particularly Alexandrova and Passage of Time (who was Cecils main epsom hope at the time last year).
There are plenty of other trials especially with the fillies as indeed Ouija Board and Eswarah have went to epsom having been runaway winners at other races in recent years.
Generally I watch all the trials at every track in the hope of seeing a special looking horse and sometimes you could see one at chester, sometimes not. I do love that chester festival meeting after the guineas though.
One thing Ive noted in recent season however is that, whereas trainers who have a listed class horse will target at a trial rather than Epsom Stouty usually has a few of these types and tends to target the trials and so he can be worth watching in the betting for the trials, but often improvement on his winners can often be taken with a pinch of salt for epsom.
The Oaks is sponsored by Juddmonte this year. Looks far too hard at present to have a serious view on.
Very Good point about Juddmonte DJ, I actually read that aswell and forgot it just s fast.
I do realise that it may be early but have a feeling that both of these are going to shorten considerably before epsom and at 7s and 16s, if anything special emerges from the trials, they can be backed with scope for a decent return, and these can be strong safetys, or alternatively they can be just sat on should nothing else emerge.
Thanks, Bulwark.
In fact, I saw most of those Derby winners you mentioned.I take heed of the races you mentioned, especially, Leopardstown, but I generally disregard York and Newmarket form.
Just my peculiar way of working, I suppose.
So you know better than all the punters that make Listen favourite for the Guineas? Why don’t you just lay her in that for a guaranteed return!
Listen’s Fillies’ Mile form is as good as anything any 2-y-o filly achieved last year and I think it reflects well on both her and Proviso that they pulled clear in the manner they did. I don’t think she is at all slow or likely to find 1m too sharp. For me it was a couple of pretty average rides at the Curragh that saw her beaten twice after her debut. With Zarkava and Proviso not likely to come over for the race, Listen rightly heads the market and goes to Newmarket as the one to beat at the moment.
Lush Lashes is obviously well regarded and has a fine pedigree, but current odds for her for classics look extremely short considering the form of the Goffs Fillies’ race
FOr the Guineas I’ll be looking to keep the O’Brien fillies Listen and Savethisdanceforme onside as well as chipping away for a life-chaging amount on once-raced Michael Jarvis filly Red Dune at 250+ on betfair.
I can’t see any reason why Listen shouldn’t go for the Guineas. O’Brien has run several by Sadler’s Wells in the past (Yesterday obviously, Quarter Moon, Maryinsky, Amethyst), and the stallion does have a strong enough record with early milers for enough other trainers to have a go too.
Lush Lashes is entered at the Curragh on Sunday in the Park Express Stakes, so maybe we can see how she is then.
Sorry, I see this has already been said above.
So you know better than all the punters that make Listen favourite for the Guineas? Why don’t you just lay her in that for a guaranteed return!
Its not that I know better than punters, I just have a feeling that he won’t run her, as she looks more like an oaks horse, indeed murtagh has already commented on her getting further. When AOB didn’t run Alexandrova in the guineas the other year, he did have a few other choices like Race For The Stars, Rumplestiltskin etc., but with Listen being beaten twice last season over 7f and then winning at 1 mile on soft ground, I wouldn’t really expect him to waste any time running her in the guineas if it is gd-fm. This is just what I think, indeed he may run her, but unless the ground is gd-sft or worse I can’t see her winning. I don’t lay horses, I just look for others to take them on, but if it was gd-fm I would confidently say she wont win what looks a competetive guineas.
All the punters that make Listen favorite for the Guineas mean absolutely nothing to me, O’brien does not run a horse because of any commitment he feels to punters, in fact, just like Jim Bolger, he doesn’t give a toss about punters whatsoever, anyone who has ever followed o’brien will have realised to their cost that he is the trainer for a breeding operation. He has upset punters many times in the past, how many antepost punters last year had holy roman emperor as a very good second favorite in the guineas? I myself have been caught out in the past by O’brien when I backed Antonius Pius for the 2004 guineas @40-1, then he was sent for the poulains, with One cool Cat and Tumblebrutus going to newmarket and had Scorpion @ 33s for the 2005 derby before he was sent for the french one over an insufficient trip, with Oratorio who IMHO would have been better suited to the french derby, going to epsom.
In truth, if you like a horse and he is with AOB there is no guarantee where it will run, all you can do is go with your gut and my gut says the Oaks.
Yes, Bulwark, I tend to follow O’Brien and I must admit to getting it wrong many times!
Personally, I always think he couldn’t care less about the "early season" races. It does no harm to get the measure of the opposition without spoiling his potential big prize winners.
Listen’s full-sister Sequoyah bypassed Newmarket and ended up at The Curragh for the Irish 1000 Guineas after being slow to come to hand that Spring. Listen could do likewise as I’m sure I read this week that she’s also been tardy in her early preperation.
O’Brien also has Kitty Matchem who won the Rockfel at Newmarket last season. This race has been a good pointer to the Guineas in recent seasons especially with the camber of the Rowley Mile catching some horses out. The three previous Rockfels have been won by Maids Causeway (2nd), Speciosa (1st) and Finsceal Beo (1st). I’d be suprised if Kitty Matchem isn’t being aimed for this race, so the question is whether AOB would run both ?
Thanks, Bulwark.
In fact, I saw most of those Derby winners you mentioned.I take heed of the races you mentioned, especially, Leopardstown, but I generally disregard York and Newmarket form.
Just my peculiar way of working, I suppose.
You disregard York form? Would that be the same York where Derby winners Motivator and Authorized won their Derby trials?
JohnJ.
Yes, John.
Those were two years when I had to rely on placed horses on the Saturday at Epsom. Not too bad, really.
Those winning short favs didn’t go on to better things, whereas my selections proved OK in later races, so I was content enough.It was particularly pleasing for me to see DT win the Arc, while Frankie’s thing trailed in near last.
Just my way of doing things. A bit of a wait, but worth it in the long run, imo.
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