VDW

[Hensman]

Crock

I have always felt there was something of a contradiction within VDW on this point.

1) on the one hand, VDW rightly said (1979, so obviously price levels have increased considerably) "good consistent horses are not to be found in a £500 seller but they are in a £5,000 handicap";

2) on the other, he was willing to look races very much nearer his £500 figure than the £5,000 one – eg those won by Rifle Brigade, 16; Ascenia, 11; Crown Matrimonial, 11; Parkhouse, 13, etc etc.

I attach greater significance to (1) above than to (2) and limit myself to races in which "good consistent horses" are to be found. And it is through noting how some of these races have benefitted more from sponsorship than others that has led me to reverse VDW’s approach and regard class of runner as primary to value of race.

[Crock]

Mandrake,

I may well be wrong in this assertion as I don’t have my notes to hand. When VDW mentioned West Tip having ‘half a stone in hand’ of Canny Danny at the framed weight, I think he was referring to Dick Whitford’s form ratings in the Sporting Life (remember for this partcular article VDW was highlighting using the Life & Mail ratings instead of his own). West Tip was indeed 7lb better off at the weights according to Whitford’s ratings in the Life.

I suspect when referring to a ‘3lb’ pull last time he was again referring to these ratings with Whitford rating Canny Danny 3lb clear that day.

[Crock]

Hensman,

that has led me to reverse VDW’s approach and regard class of runner as primary to value of race.

I’m going to draw a line under this one as we debated this to death on another forum some time ago but for me the two are inextricably linked ie finding the class of runner by value of race(s).

[Hensman]

Crock

The two were inextricably linked for VDW in the 1970s and 1980s, but whether they would be today, with much more information readily available, is another matter.

In my view, you are right re Canny Danny/West Tip.

[nagwa]

when summing up cool gin, just for information this should have been mr spiers, last wager to date.. any reasons why this was selected as a bet ahead of wing and a prayer, beat the retreat, brave george,.. on the same racecard

[Crock]

when summing up cool gin, just for information this should have been mr spiers, last wager to date.. any reasons why this was selected as a bet ahead of wing and a prayer, beat the retreat, brave george,.. on the same racecard

Nagwa,
It’s some time since I’ve studied these races but VDW’s comments don’t negate Wing And A Prayer being a bet. Cool Gin came after Wing And A Prayer so could still have been a bet with Cool Gin being the last one.

[Anonymous]

Crock

I’m not saying you are wrong but when he said (West Tip) has half a stone in hand of him (Canny Danny) at the framed weight he is in my view talking about when all the entries closed for the race the "framed weight"is the offical or’s weight range from top of the hcp to the bottom weight, not private ratings.

You are right in saying that his ratings were giving readers trouble so he introduced the Life and Mail’s as ones to use in that letter.

Mandrake

[class tells]

looks like the heavy team have arrived welcome .remember the futures bright

[Mtoto44]

Consistency, Ability, Weight, are all fundamental factors to the successful working of the method, the balance between class and form. They are factors that VDW went in to in great detail, directly and indirectly. They are aspects that in isolation or in combination people still choose to ignore believing them to be unimportant; why is this?

L33,

I can only speak for myself, but of the three elements you mention above weight is the only one I ignore. Why is this, simply because I have solved many if not all of the old examples by not using it. You use the word balance, but I do feel some get very unbalanced when it comes to weight. Canny Danny is being used as an example as to why weight is important but in truth he was only carrying 3lbs more than when he won at Sandown (+ he had carried bigger weights and still run well) so actual weight carried wasn’t the problem. For me there were two other problems, the handicapper had underestimated the worth of another horse in the race. More importantly I think another of VDW factors was over looked that factor he also spoke about many times and it isn’t included in your three elements to be considered, the course. Why did VDW use weight to explain the defeat, I think because it is the scape goat most understand, and of course when the figures for the race are looked at CD comes out joint last?

Be Lucky

[Crock]

I suppose it’s down to interpretation, Mandrake.

When VDW wrote about the framed weight he said 50% of winners (Handicap Hurdles and Chases) came from the bottom half of the framed handicap (I must confess I’ve never really figured out the significance of this as it means the other 50% come from the top half!).

If we look at the framed weights for this race:

Weights were raised 18lb and Canny Danny carried a 4lb penalty, which means in the framed handicap we would have had:
Canny Danny – 10st 3lb
West Tip – 8st 11lb

Without knowing the bottom weight it’s impossible to know the mid point (if we assume it was West Tip we have a mid point about 10.09 putting both horses in the bottom half).

I can’t really see a 1/2st advantage to West Tip in any way here but I may well be missing something

[Crock]

looks like the heavy team have arrived welcome .remember the futures bright

I hope you are not including me in that statement, Class Tells.

My ever expanding waistline has sod all to do with you and it’s the only way I could be described in the ‘heavy mob’

[The real barney]

Hello Lee, hope you are keeping well also

hi Crock ,

If the framed weight is Is 0-145 and then the top 10 rated horses from the entry make a decision not to run then the bottom half of the framed weights is largely intact. Saying as much could mean that the actual race contains three quarters of the runners(or whatever) are from the bottom half of the framed weights.

This could have been of significance to VDW when he considered how a trainer was placing his horses, through the medium of the race entries or the "races to come" section.

Using a topical horse (RG) then when he was entered at the top of the handicap, VDW knowing that 50% come from the bottom of the framed weights, perhaps the alarm bells would have been ringing last Wednesday, and he perhaps would have been surprised/disappointed at Stout standing his ground.

[pipedreamer]

Hi Guys,good to see the old faces Lee,Barney,Crock Mtoto etc and others,i hope to contribute also,good race at Linfield 4.10,but a bit of conflict

[Crock]

Hi Barney,

Hope you are keeping well and getting over your traumatic events of a few years ago.

I sort of understand where you are coming from but I’m not sure it really helps when the figure is 50%.

Looking at the example you quote of a 0-145 handicap, you could turn that on it’s head. Lets say the top 10 weights withdraw on the day leaving 3/4 of the field from the bottom half. If we look at that logically, if 50% of the winners come from the bottom half, then equally 50% come from the top half. So, it could be argued that if 50% come from the top half of handicap and they make up only a quarter of the field then the odds are in their favour.

I guess for those figures to have any real meaning we’d need to know the % of declared runners that came from each section.

I’m sure I’m being stupid and missing something obvious but I can’t quite grasp it

[grand lodge]

This following information is based on ten-year stats and might help settle some of the debate about weights in handicap races:

[code:2yvcj1ei]
Weights Win Ratio
Top-third v Middle-third 2:1
Top-third v Bottom-third 3:1

Middle-third v Bottom-third 2:1
[/code:2yvcj1ei]

Hope this is of help.

GL

[Crock]

Hi GL,

For clarification, I assume you are talking about the weights ‘on the day’ ie culled from RSB or similar rather than the initial ‘framed’ handicap?

[johngringo]

Hi GL,

If top v middle is 2:1, and top v bottom is 3:1, then surely middle v bottom has to be 1.5:1

[Author]

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