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Mtoto,
You won’t find a VDW example like Red Gala – up in class, distance, AND weight. Not only up in actual weight by nearly a stone but also giving nearly a stone to class and form horses.
There aren’t many that come along in the racing calendar that fit the above profile, but when they do they nearly all lose.
You won’t find a VDW example like Red Gala – up in class, distance, AND weight. Not only up in actual weight by nearly a stone but also giving nearly a stone to class and form horses.
L33,
I agree with the above, but it does raise an interesting question. That being which horse is the c/form horse? Looking at some of the examples it isn’t the highest rated for ability. so why isn’t RG the actual c/form horse? Like Gaye Chance and others he isn’t the top rated for ability but he does have ratings backing. He is a distance winner and has won on the going. Who do you have as the class form horse, I can’t really see it can have been the winner because he had too many unaswered questions.
The point I was trying to make is even with a combination of the "negatives" you mentioned Soaf was a selection. He was going up in distance, class and weight (albeit only 7lbs), but all three of these negatives wasn’t enough to stop him being a selection.
Be Lucky
had a look at my figures for red gales race inform but not inthe top 5 ability ratings,buccelleti in both 10/1 to
Mtoto,
To isolate the Class/Form horse can often prove a tricky problem, but some stick out like a sore thumb and it is these which should have support.
It’s as simple as that. I can tell you which horse I believe to be the class/form horse in a race, however, I’m not sure it will help because the fundamental reasons of how this is concluded needs to be understood.
For instance there are many who believe that weight isn’t a factor in the method? How can this be when VDW remarked on it many times? Had the RG race been ran at level weights do you believe that the result would have been the same?
I think it was Mtoto who said that weight was’nt a factor. I personally believe that weight can be decisive in certain situations like on soft or heavy ground. As VDW said every horse has its breaking limit and is’nt capable of carrying more than a certain weight and this has to be checked like many other factors.Even the great Arkle could’nt always give lumps of weight away although he almost did it.
I decided against Red Gala because of the weight it had to carry. To me the burden was such that I could not believe that he had been placed to win.
I had decided on Tropical Strait who ended up a non-runner. Did anyone else like the look of him?
For instance there are many who believe that weight isn’t a factor in the method? How can this be when VDW remarked on it many times?
L33,
I can find weight mentioned in The Golden Years 36 times, but very few of these are actually from VDW. Yes he does say weight is a great leveller, and he does say horses have INDIVIDUAL weight limits beyond which THEY do not perform. Does that mean you accept a horse can carry a big weight is say a class 2 hcp because it carried it successfully in a class 4 hcp at the being of its career?
I have serious doubts VDW looked at weight the same way as many do. If he did why isn’t weight mentioned when he gives his advice on what to look for when studying form here he said… To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race. No mention of weight carried. He also said don’t adjust the s/f for weight carried on the day. He also didn’t bat an eyelid when he put up a horse to defy a 7lb turn around for a neck beating.
Had the RG race been ran at level weights do you believe that the result would have been the same?
There is no accurate way to answer that question. He didn’t finish as if weight was the problem. What I do know is even if it had been a none hcp I still wouldn’t have backed RG to win that race.
Be Lucky
L33, Mtoto etc
I have just got in from an ‘away day’ and read these posts with interest. A great little discussion.
L33, You say a lot of your bets are dutches. I have been working for a while (in spurts I must admit) on VDW and his methodology. The problem I have is knowing if I am right about the way I am looking at things or the conclusions I have made. I have studied G Hall’s key, but also been down many ‘dead ends’ afterwards where I think I have found a way of improving on this, but after a look at a fair number of examples I find it is a wrong assumption. I wonder if you could offer any advice? I seem to be stuck in a 40% strike rate (figures perhaps a slight underestimate after my hard drive and records melted!) I also try to isolate the class form horse, but then when I think I have got it, it goes wrong.
For what it is worth I agree with your comments re Red Gala, again in that race I was down to a short list but let the race run as I was not confident enough to dutch it.
On a general note the study of VDW can be both rewarding and frustrating, but it was nice to read the pleasant discussion between you and Mtoto, without any vitriol thrown in!MTOTO,
hello again old friend.
The para you mention, was given "again" by VDW in relation to setting up the second numerical picture in the chapter MYTH OF THE MISSING LINK., That was the first of "a couple of clues". The second "clue" to the second numerical picture, as given by VDW is as follows.
"You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of race in which they compete"
Here is my Tuppence worth
" A variety of excuses has been used to mask failure with my methods- the "key, the "last piece of the jigsaw", the "missing link" all come down to the same thing.Many create the initial numerical picture and say they are stuck and don’t know how to select one from the three probables.
this would tie in with
what a horse does or does not do,in the latter part of his last few races peach note section 24 the golden years
And still the debate rages, pausing only for the occasional change of home
A warm hello to some old friends and hopefully some new ones.
Hensman,
Apologies if the discussion has now moved on, I did pen this reply a week or so ago but it took Cormack a few days to approve my membership.
You stated in some earlier posts that you felt increased sponsorship of the big handicaps etc had rendered prize money a less useful guide to class than in VDW’s heyday (apologies if I’m paraphrasing you wrongly).
I wonder on what evidence you are basing this assumption.
Last weeks Cambridgeshire will bring to mind Mr Hall’s selection of Baronet back in 1978. It’s interesting to compare the respective race values:
In 1978 The Cambridgeshire was worth £18,000, last week’s renewal was worth £99,000 and it’s value has thus risen by a factor of approximately 5.5 in the intervening years. On the same card is a ‘bog standard’ Nursery Handicap. In 1978 this Nursery was worth £,2847 and is now worth £18,696, a factor of 6.5 which is actually more than the ‘big’ handicap. The same cards also gives us the Sun Chariot Stakes which has risen even further from £13,000 to £105,000, a factor of 8 although this can be explained largely by it’s rise from Group 2 to Group 1 status in the intervening years otherwise I think you would have seen a much closer correllation.
The previous week gave us the Ayr Gold Cup as the ‘big’ handicap. In 1978 it was worth £15,276 and today £75,407 (a factor of approx 5.0). That same meeting gives us the The Firth of Clyde Stakes which has risen from £5,241 to £34,068 a factor of 6.5 and again slightly higher than the ‘big’ handicap.
The previous week we had the St Leger meeting. The Leger has risen from £50,630 to £303,914 (a factor of 6.0) whilst the same meetings Doncaster Cup has risen from £10,229 to £56,780 (a factor of 5.6).
In fact everywhere I look there seems to be some consistency in the good class races within a fairly narrow band 5.0 to 6.5.
OK that’s all flat racing I hear you say, what about the jumps? The Whitbread Gold Cup as you will recall was won by Strombolus collecting £14,698. This years renewal was worth £91,232, again virtually in the middle of the band with a factor of 6.2.
I can’t see a great deal has changed in the good class races. The values fall within a fairly narrow band and the good trainers still chase the prize. I think VDW advised us to concentrate on the highest penalty values for very good reason
Welcome to Barney and Crock – hope you are both well!
Mtoto,
I’m not going to debate the weight issue because there is absolutely no question that VDW took weight into consideration when evaluating a race – a few quotes:
“Checking the FORM, Prominent King was coming out of handicap company where he shouldered a massive 12-7 …… Drumgora also in this race on 17lbs worse terms.â€
Crock
My own research suggests that the situation is more complex than perhaps your post allows. You might, for example, care to compare the proportionate changes, 1978 and 2007, in three of my favourite races: the Hambleton, the Old Newton Cup and the Cambridgeshire.
VDW certainly advised concentrating on the better class races (though plenty of examples were in better class races only relative to the rest of the card, not actual win prize money values), and that advice, to my mind, is as valid now as it was when given.
L33
I entirely agree with your last post. Few, I think, have done the research necessary to establish how VDW factored in weight, for me a vital part of his approach.
VDW certainly advised concentrating on the better class races (though plenty of examples were in better class races only relative to the rest of the card, not actual win prize money values), and that advice, to my mind, is as valid now as it was when given.
Hensman,
I agree wholeheartedly and as far as I can ascertain those same races usually hold their same position in the hierarchy of the card.Hi Crock!
Besides the obvious arguments against win prize money and the ability rating (I always take Rooster Booster as a good example). Win prize money has to be questioned when you have striking anomalies like the Gold Cup and the Grand National.
Hi John,
I don’t think anybody (least of all VDW) has claimed win prize money or the abilty rating to a be a definitive guide to class. In fact his own words were ‘for obvious reasons this is not foolproof but at least it enables a better judgement to be made’ .
This is only commonsense really, is the winner of one group 1 race of significantly higher class than another group 1 winner because the latter took in a maiden on route to his group success whereas the the former didn’t!
It isn’t just about finding the highest class horse it’s about isolating the class of race a horse will be ‘primed’ for. This is a judgement error I’ve seen many VDW enthusiasts make when a horse has an obvious class advantage (myself included far too often in the past!) which often results in backing horses in obvious ‘prep’ races. If a horse has shown himself capable of winning in a certain class then why on earth would a trainer prime the horse for something significantly lower.
I can remember a debate on another forum a couple of years ago when Best Mate ‘scraped’ home by a short head from Seebald in the William Hill at Exeter. Does anybody really think Seebald would have got within a short head of a fully primed Best Mate over 3 miles! The person backing the horse ‘saved his bacon’ in VDW parlance that day but it doesn’t change the facts.
A study of the value of race an exposed horse is usually aimed at, particularly for good non-gambling stables will usually answer several questions.
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Weight!
Canny Danny had a 3lb pull on hcp because he was due to be raised for
future events after his fine 2nd in the1984 Hennsey 20 days previously and the time span from the entries date and when the handicap was framed was approximatly 3 weeks, so in my estimation he was to go up by 3lb the next day Sat 16th Dec 1984.From A Method Not Rules Needed ….there are not many top class horses around these days who can carry the staggering weights like those from years ago.
Kauto Star is soon to run and he will be carryng 11 10lb but he will be up against the likes of My Way De Solzen and Monet’s Garden who will be on a mininmum weight of 10 04lb, that looks a hard task to me.
Mandrake
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