- This topic has 581 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
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- Total Posts 12
Moto, Hensman
I take note of what you say about race status, prize money and the opposition, but like L33 said if you stray from what VDW said you won’t get over the first hurdle and this seems to be a stumbling block.
So, I will use the value of the prize to the winner and what he has won in the past to guage there ability and when looking at there past form I will take in what they have beaten or been beaten by using the same measure. The class a horse runs in, the courses they ran on, the pace ect. I will take his advice on using ratings as a guide like he said in his spell it all out letter and when he talked about Son Of Love being a good thing, where’s Billybroker being out of his depth, only a guide but nevertheless usefull.
I know things have changed from VDW’s days because of sponsership but the in the end money dictates most things in life.
Mandrake
Mandrake
Your privilege, but in my view it is unlikely that VDW would still be using today the tools he fashioned in the 1960s and 1970s to put into practice his theoretical approach, given changes both in the financing of races and the information about horses routinely available. One thing VDW wasn’t was a conservative (note small c – no idea what his politics were!).
I’m not sure what the benefit would be for anyone whom is successful in using the method to give a full detailed race analysis of their selections, whether that is pre or post race? Perhaps folk would like their bets placed for them as well!
That said however, I do believe there is value in posting pre-race selections with post race discussion, for those interested in the method, but not the typical pre-race analysis that I read on many message forums, and here is why.
Those that have studied the horses which feature in VDW’s writings did so because they judged that the time spent in doing so would be worth the effort involved. With today’s instant forum environment such as here there can be no place for giving selections post race, as VDW himself did/had to do – it now serves no real purpose, unless the poster is trusted and respected in what they write, but this is a matter for the reader to decide, which is what I and others had to do with regards to VDW’s post race selections.
The posting of pre-race selections, opposed to pre-race analysis, will quickly sort out those who are actually serious about what they know; the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and you will find the majority there at the start will tale-off long before the distance, but in most cases there will actually mostly non-starters.
Pre-race analysis on the other hand is of little value in my view because ‘real’ form and how to assess it will never be spelt out word for word, particularly on a message forum, leaving postings about ‘poor draw’, ‘won’t get the trip’, ‘ground too soft’ etc. to dominate boring padded out race opinions. This will often end with the poster making excuses why the horse isn’t a ‘bet’, saving their face when the horse loses, and patting themselves on the back after selecting the most likely winner.
With a pre-race selection it is black and white – profit or loss.
This now brings me back to my initial paragraph and the question ‘why would anyone who is successful in using the method give a full proper detailed race analysis of their selections?’. The VDW method, when followed successfully, will give a strike rate of 80% +. Surely the manner in which this is achieved is up to the individual, if interested, to seek out?
I have personally given pre-race VDW selections, mostly single bets, opposed to multiple bets, (deleted) and proved over some time that method works as VDW suggested it would if followed correctly. From this there have been some serious enough readers that have looked deeper in to those selections in parallel with those that VDW gave and I know that they have gained something from it – some more than others.
I would again be willing to post VDW selections if people will benefit and others knowledgeable in VDW are willing to join in.
One point is worth stating though; in order for any post race comments to be taken seriously, they must be from someone who is akin to making pre-race comments.
Lee
The VDW method, when followed successfully, will give a strike rate of 80% +.
Lee
Give over
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Lee
A fascinating challenge!
Selections on a public board before the race, no dutching, no place only bets etc.
Be interesting to see how many actually step up to the mark.
- Total Posts 12
L33
Just noticed that you signed your name as Lee and if you are the same chap who was mentioned on another board I was on you are spoken of as a VDW genius. If you are not no offence intended.
Sailing Shoes if he is the gentleman in question he should be taken very seriously.
Mandrake
80%+ Winners.
Go for it – if you proof 80% winners on here we’ll all be happy, price doesn’t really matter, we can all smash them off the boards.
Tell you what Lee, I’ll be happy with just 50%. No need to over do it – chuck in a few losers.
I only work with pre-race selections. As and when I have any I will put them up.
Reet Hard,
I see you continue to visit this thread. It is a great honour to be graced by such a fine racing brain, especially as it now seems quite enthusiastic about what it previously considered to be sinister.
I look forward to reading your opinions.
Sailing Shoes,
I have openly proofed that 80% winners is possible and if I remember correctly, bar a recent book I suggested, none were odds on, and the odd loser finished not worse than 2nd. I’ve never posted to prove anything, I have a lot of spare time and enjoy taking part in friendly discussion about VDW and racing. Unfortunately there is always one, or two, or more!
I get them impression from the tone of your posts that you aren’t that interested in VDW? Which begs the question why do you ‘hang around’ here? I suspect it’s for a free meal ticket?
Your blog by the way is a fine example of why, as stated in my previous post, I’m against pre-race analysis.
Mandrake,
There is no genius to winner finding – I’m as thick as two short planks.
Lee.
Free meal ticket?? LMAO!
What is wrong with my blog? Apart from the fact it’s miles out of date.
I suggest you either put up or shut up – people who boast of 80% strike-rate after a couple of posts tend only to last a couple of posts.
Sailing Shoes,
Can I ask why you didn’t continue with your blog? Did you get demoralised?
Why if people are not interested in VDW do they hang around the discussion like circling vultures?
(deleted)
Sailing Shoes
Comments such as "I suggest you either put up or shut up" Do not really help as L33 already has put forward a series of selections.
What more does he have to do??
If he puts up selections and if people can not fathom the methodology, it turns to disbelief, frustration and sarcasm. If he does not he gets told to put up or shut up. He can not win.
Persist like this and you will just drive people who make VDW work away, which perhaps is your aim. It does not help the likes of me though who only get around 40 -50% and would like to improve on it!
Sailing Shoes
L33 already has put forward a series of selections.
What more does he have to do??
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WHERE?
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