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Ginger, Djakadam doesn’t come into this debate. Nor does Cue Card, nor Don Cossack. It is about Vautour’s stamina in the King George.
Like all of us, Timeform don’t get their predictions right the majority of the time, but they do make a pretty consistent job of reviewing the evidence from a race that has been run, and the simple facts are these:
You say Vautour was ‘out on his feet at the line’
Timeform say ‘Stayed on run-in, caught on line’
As for my pre-race analysis, it was that Ruby would hold him up for as long as he felt the pace was right for it: he did exactly that until the 11th, when Silv Conti began flagging.
Ruby has re watched the race a million times
the horse has a high cruising speed, Ruby let him go in as much as not pushing him but not holding on to him as to keep him in check, the horse may not find much off the bridle but Ruby can do enough with him to hold him slightly tighter for longer and keep a lead without letting him go two/three lengths clear just hold him a length or so in front and loosen the reigns lightly when needed, he doesn’t look a puller but may pull if held on too tightly but if anyone can switch a horse off it’s Ruby.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ginger, Djakadam doesn’t come into this debate. Nor does Cue Card, nor Don Cossack. It is about Vautour’s stamina in the King George.
You said in a previous post on this thread, “12/1 look a gift from the Gods”.
Are you or are you not saying 12/1 (all in, run or not) is a good price for Vautour winning the Gold Cup Joe?
He’s only 7/1 non-runner no bet for a reason.
If you’re really taking that 12/1 price without considering Djakadam – ie whether Vautour will actually turn up – then you’re not the intelligent punter I thought you were. So too if you’re taking a price without considering the opposition’s ability Vautour will face (ie Djakadam, Cue Card and Don Cossack amongst others).
…And if Timeform believe “Cue Card was just the stronger stayer than Vautour” at 3m, what do you think their opinion of the two will be at 3m2f110yrds on a far stiffer racecourse? Ditto Don Cossack Vs Vautour.
So of course other horses play a part in the debate, this is a debate about the horse Vautour and that includes his future prospects.
Value Is EverythingAs for my pre-race analysis, it was that Ruby would hold him up for as long as he felt the pace was right for it: he did exactly that until the 11th, when Silv Conti began flagging.
This is part of your pre-race analysis Joe:
I’d expect Vautour to jump off in midfield on Saturday, or no more prominent than third. I’m not saying he won’t lead early, but he’ll only do that if Ruby believes the pace is too slow – highly unlikely, I think.
Ruby allowed the horse to race in a prominent position because he knew not to allow Vautour to go his own pace (holding the horse back in midfield or even third) would mean he’d run a considerable risk of not settling and taking more out of himself.
Do you really believe Ruby went prominent and then led because he felt the “pace too slow”? If so Ruby is a rubbish judge of pace. Pace was too quick and Ruby/Vautour played his/their part in it.
Value Is EverythingExactly ginge but that is where there is room for improvement, the horse has tactical speed to get led position or sit off and Ruby can hold on longer if the horse settles for a hold
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Like all of us, Timeform don’t get their predictions right the majority of the time, but they do make a pretty consistent job of reviewing the evidence from a race that has been run, and the simple facts are these:
You say Vautour was ‘out on his feet at the line’
Timeform say ‘Stayed on run-in, caught on line’
You’ve taken my quote out of the context it was intended Joe.
What I said was, “it’s as if he folded after 22 furlongs and went from looking like the easy winner to an out on his feet second at the line”.
ie Considering/comparing how well Vautour was moving 2 furlongs out – then he was “out on his feet at the line”. I clearly did not mean it in the same way as a heavy ground Welsh National fourth might finish. If you need another description; Vautour went from looking an easy winner two out to finishing “tired”, a word used by Steve Mellish in commentary immediately after the race.
Value Is EverythingExactly ginge but that is where there is room for improvement, the horse has tactical speed to get led position or sit off and Ruby can hold on longer if the horse settles for a hold
That’s just it Nathan, at the moment Vautour does not settle well enough to stay the Gold Cup trip.
As I said on an earlier thread, when a horse front runs as often as Vautour there’s usually a reason. If you watch the race again on RUK coverage, Ruby can be seen trying to keep Vautour back passing the stands on the first circuit and again just before relenting and taking it up.
May be – like Cue Card – Vautour will learn to settle given time, but only has 2 1/2 months for the transformation.Value Is Everything
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