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People seemed to reckon that Vautour would need to win today or else there is no point in going for the Gold Cup. I am a fan of the horse since I saw his performance in the JLT in March. I’m just seeking the opinions and views of others. My view is that Vautours performance today was outstanding, and should strengthen his gold cup credentials rather than weaken them. The biggest comment was that he didn’t stay, which I believe is rubbish. He outstayed some very proven stayers and was only beaten by the dip of a head, in what was only his first start in a non novice grade one, and only his second start out of novice company. Secondly I believe he is a horse that operates most effectively on Good ground, and is fittest in the spring, with his only previous defeat coming on heavy on boxing day last year. Thirdly himself and cue card pulled miles clear of the rest, and cue card just had the better leap at the last and a slightly better turn of foot. However cue card is an experienced horse both at that Level and around that track, wheras Vautour as I said was only having his second run out of novice company. Finally Cheltenham suits Vautour better both by being left handed, and I believe the hill at the end. I don’t believe that Vautour has a blistering turn of speed that cue card has, but just gallops at a very high tempo which suits the Cheltenham hill. The hill would negate cue cards turn of speed, but a speady galloper wouldn’t be hindered as much. Any way id like to hear what others think
The way he didn’t stay I thought soon after the race that Ryanair would be the target especially as they have Djakadam for the GC. Now after thinking about it I’m not so sure. I think the plan will be to leave him now until the GC as he clearly had a hard race. Mullins said he was tough on him leading up to Cheltenham last season and I think it may be the same to try to get the horse stronger. Ruby obviously thinks Vautour his best chance of lifting the trophy even after Djakadam’s monumental effort last season. Djakadam is a year older and therefore should be better and doesn’t even have to beat his conqueror of last year. It will be interesting to hear Ruby’s thoughts of the race and whether he thinks Vautour will stay. Mullins probably a bit less so but I think the training will be geared towards a GC attempt. Rich Ricci I think will probably not want to run both in the same race as he’ll want Ruby on both horses and will want Vautour for the Ryanair and Djakadam for the GC. The withdrawal from the Lexus shows they are not willing to risk what could be a brutal race for a horse who is still only six and it is all guns blazing towards Cheltenham in March.
How can anyone say Vautour didn’t stay when he has just finished second in arguably the most competitive King George VI Chase in recent times? He’s just out of his novice season, competing in only his sixth chase, he beat the rest hollow and was only just pipped by an excellent three mile chaser right at the top of his game.
Rob
I’m a big fan of VAUTOUR, how could you not be. I don’t know if
he would stay the extra 2f of the Gold Cup, up the Cheltenham
hill, he may very well do, but for the sake of playing devil’s
advocate I’ll voice the slight concern I have.TWM wrote……..
[ The biggest comment was that he didn’t stay, which I believe is rubbish.
He outstayed some very proven stayers and was only beaten by the dip of a
head, in what was only his first start in a non novice grade one, and only
his second start out of novice company.]I agree he beat many proven stayers and looking at the facts, on the
face of things, he did beat proven stayers and indeed was only beaten
a nose. If I simply read the facts I would be wondering how anyone could
doubt he should be nailed on for the GC. But watching the race it gives
me another consideration.Vautour looked amazing going round, he never looked like he would be in
any danger. With 2 fences to go the race had to be in the bag, he was still
cruising and everything else was hard at work. Even going to the last,
although CUE CARD had closed, he still looked like he had plenty in hand.
If there is the slightest chink, it’s the way he went from cruising to
just keeping on in the last 1/2 f.If he had been in the pack or running with CUE CARD and DON COSSACK from
some way out, and just got pipped it would be hard to say that he didn’t
have as good a chance as both of those at the GC. It just concerns me
a little that he looked so impressive and completely in control until that
last 1/2 furlong.So what happened?, did he just get pipped by a top class horse (which CUE
CARD is), or did he just start to empty out in that last 1/2 furlong. The
honest answer is I don’t know, he may well be a GC horse, but I do now
have some doubts about that last 2f up the hill at Cheltenham.Vautour was outstayed but he was desperately tired after crossing the line (his head was very low to the ground) – lets put it this way, he didn’t look like he was crying out to go another 2f even on a flat course like Kempton.
Pretty sure he will stay engaged in the GC field at the moment but he will need to go again over 3m like either the Denman Chase or Irish Hennessy (Denman Chase liable to be run on much better ground than the Hennessy) but to me I have likened him to dual KG winner One Man who excelled at 3m (even won Newbury’s Hennessy over 3m2f in his younger days) and travelled all over his Gold Cup rivals until turning for home and hitting the proverbial brick wall two out.
While I am not the greatest fan of the Ryanair, its 2m4f distance is his ideal and on likely better ground at Cheltenham in March it is the obvious target along with say Aintree’s Melling Chase or even the 3m Betfred Bowl the following month – the alternative (depending on whether Un De Sceaux makes it to Cheltenham) is the QMCC, which I believe you need a horse that stays further than 2m to win it anyway.
Willie Mullins on Vautour Gold Cup “I won’t be taking him out of it”
David, if he does get to line up at the GC, then Mullins will have decided he
will get the distance, that will be good enough for me.I just wonder if he is keeping his options open at this time, whilst considering
what would be best for the horse. He does like to play his cards close to his
chest.Still much improvement to come in Vautour, I reckon. Watching the race again, quite apart from regularly jumping left, he got in a bit close a few times, so I’d definitely expect a better performance at Cheltenham. But if the King George was competitive, the Gold Cup will be white-hot; so its’ a tough call for Willie. The Ryanair is a much softer option, but correspondingly much less prestigious
Vautour was outstayed but he was desperately tired after crossing the line (his head was very low to the ground) – lets put it this way, he didn’t look like he was crying out to go another 2f even on a flat course like Kempton.
Pretty sure he will stay engaged in the GC field at the moment but he will need to go again over 3m like either the Denman Chase or Irish Hennessy (Denman Chase liable to be run on much better ground than the Hennessy) but to me I have likened him to dual KG winner One Man who excelled at 3m (even won Newbury’s Hennessy over 3m2f in his younger days) and travelled all over his Gold Cup rivals until turning for home and hitting the proverbial brick wall two out.
While I am not the greatest fan of the Ryanair, its 2m4f distance is his ideal and on likely better ground at Cheltenham in March it is the obvious target along with say Aintree’s Melling Chase or even the 3m Betfred Bowl the following month – the alternative (depending on whether Un De Sceaux makes it to Cheltenham) is the QMCC, which I believe you need a horse that stays further than 2m to win it anyway.
Spot on
I was far from convinced about the right-handed argument and watching on CH4, he didn’t seem to go too badly left. But watching today the RUK coverage (different angle), he goes seriously to his left at quite a few, especially down the back. He’d be a stone better horse at Cheltenham come March if the last two festivals are anything to go by.
And although he didn’t look like he’d want 2 furlongs more, well, few horses would having gone that fast throughout, and Ruby will adjust the pace accordingly.
The stamina argument is getting much more credence than it deserves imo. He was caught on the post after an untidy, energy-sapping jump at the last: it’s not as though he folded after 22 furlongs and finished out the back. Connections are understandably disappointed, but after a few days reflection, I think they’ll appreciate just how magnificent the performance was given his age and experience and all the other negatives that he was supposedly subject to – poor midwinter form, right-handed track, softer ground than he likes, jumping out to his left…I think he did pretty well, all things considered!
I was far from convinced about the right-handed argument and watching on CH4, he didn’t seem to go too badly left. But watching today the RUK coverage (different angle), he goes seriously to his left at quite a few, especially down the back. He’d be a stone better horse at Cheltenham come March if the last two festivals are anything to go by.
And although he didn’t look like he’d want 2 furlongs more, well, few horses would having gone that fast throughout, and Ruby will adjust the pace accordingly.
The stamina argument is getting much more credence than it deserves imo. He was caught on the post after an untidy, energy-sapping jump at the last: it’s not as though he folded after 22 furlongs and finished out the back. Connections are understandably disappointed, but after a few days reflection, I think they’ll appreciate just how magnificent the performance was given his age and experience and all the other negatives that he was supposedly subject to – poor midwinter form, right-handed track, softer ground than he likes, jumping out to his left…I think he did pretty well, all things considered!
Exactly this word for word. I still think he is a serious Gold Cup player. Only worry id have is if Djakadam wins his trial mightily impressively then connections might think Ryanair as then they get Ruby on both for a start.
If vatour was in any other yard it would still be difficult for the owners to decide which race at Cheltenham to go for. They have decided to go for the gold cup route this year so we will just have to go with it. If djakadam wins the gold cup then they could switch the horse back to the champion chase route next season. It’s a tricky quandary for trainer and owner having so many good horses as I believe faugheen would make a great champion chase horse. All about opinions as usual.
I was far from convinced about the right-handed argument and watching on CH4, he didn’t seem to go too badly left. But watching today the RUK coverage (different angle), he goes seriously to his left at quite a few, especially down the back. He’d be a stone better horse at Cheltenham come March if the last two festivals are anything to go by.
And although he didn’t look like he’d want 2 furlongs more, well, few horses would having gone that fast throughout, and Ruby will adjust the pace accordingly.
The stamina argument is getting much more credence than it deserves imo. He was caught on the post after an untidy, energy-sapping jump at the last: it’s not as though he folded after 22 furlongs and finished out the back. Connections are understandably disappointed, but after a few days reflection, I think they’ll appreciate just how magnificent the performance was given his age and experience and all the other negatives that he was supposedly subject to – poor midwinter form, right-handed track, softer ground than he likes, jumping out to his left…I think he did pretty well, all things considered!
Vautour did prove he “stayed” 3m on soft going Joe, but he was “outstayed” by Cue Card and (if completing) probably Don Cossack too. You say “it’s not as though he folded after 22 furlongs and finished out the back”. True, it’s as if he folded after 22 furlongs and went from looking like the easy winner to an out on his feet second at the line. That’s some transformation! It was also an “untidy, energy-sapping jump at the last” for a reason; the horse had gone from sauntering to victory to struggling within 1 1/2 furlongs.
It was the amount of negatives beforehand that made Vautour (for me) a bad bet – and Cue Card and Don Cossack good bets. Yes, Vautour proved he acts on soft, proved he acts well enough to be very competitive on a right-handed track. Wasn’t as much of a problem because it (at times) seemed to put off his two biggest rivals – Cue Card and Don Cossack – just as much as it did him. Proved he stays the 3m trip well enough to be competitive in this exhaulted company. (Timeform have it as the best quality NH race since Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief fought out the Tingle Creek). But a combination of all of those things, together with perhaps the most important – he’s a prominent racer – did for Vautour in the end.
Had Ruby felt able not to race so prominently, needing to at first go along with and then set an overly strong pace… he may well have been successful. As it was Vautour would’ve been too free if restrained and Ruby did the right thing by racing prominently, with a clear view of the front/fences. Helped by Hutchinson/King chosing not to race Smad Place from the front. Unfortunately for Vautour fans Silvi and Fehily weren’t so accomodating. Had there been no competition for the lead Vautour would’ve been able to settle at a slower pace/equal fractions. With first half of the race run faster than second half it did not give Vautour maximum chance of winning.
Vautour’s chance in next year’s King George will be good, if ground conditions are less stamina sapping and even more so if there are no other front runners in the race and he’s able to dictate. Indeed, I may well back him myself.
As for a Cheltenham Gold Cup: Even allowing for the overly strong pace, fact Vautour slowed so quickly after looking to have the race in the bag (at 3m) – suggests he’ll struggle to stay 3m2f on a stiffer track. If it were on good ground in a race he can dictate a slowish pace – then may be has a squeak. You may think “Ruby will adjust the pace accordingly” Joe, but those things are rarely in his control. There’ll probably be other front runners who’d be suited by more of a test of stamina and encourage him to go quicker than suits. That’s even if Vautour runs, Sky’s 7/1 NRNB looks better than 12/1 AIRON. Djakadam is current favourite, from the same connections and the Gold Cup is the ideal race for Djakadam whilst Vautour would be odds-on for the Ryanair. Mullins also has Don Poli and (unless the latter goes for the Grand National instead) trainer is unlikely to throw too many dice at one Cheltenham race.
Value Is EverythingGinger, not for the first time, opinions are polarised and people hold very strongly to their views. As I said in the last post, far too much has been made, imo, of a supposed stamina deficit in Vautour. I’ve read quite a few ‘out on his feet’ opinions before seeing yours, and a number of ‘running on vapours’ and several of that ilk from people who really should take a more objective view of their race-reading rather than interpreting it to meet their preconceptions.
You say Vautour was a ‘bad bet’ – what, by a head? Fair enough, he got beat, and I did not get paid out which is the measure of all wagers, but he was not a ‘bad’ bet.
I know you’re a big fan of Timeform. Here are a couple of excerpts from their report on the KG:
…the leader Vautour even further ahead 3 out before tiring through overexertion, rather than lack of stamina
…VAUTOUR (FR) upped markedly in trip, had clearly come on plenty for Ascot and proved better than ever on his second start out of novice company, just doing a fraction more than ideal in front and run out of it on the post, his tendency to jump left far less apparent than it had been the time before; pressed leader, tanked along, led tenth, ridden approaching last, not fluent there, driven and stayed on run-in, caught on line;
..and their conclusion: …. he clearly has the ability to be a strong contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, though with a slight doubt about his stamina
Now that’s a fair report and in line with my own reading of the race. Yes, there’s a slight doubt about his stamina on that evidence. My belief is that he’s improving, and strengthening and Cheltenham is his theatre, and Mullins and Walsh will have learned more about this young and inexperienced horse, and that’s more than sufficient compensation to make 12/1 look a gift from the Gods.
Admittedly Al Ferof isnt the dourest of stayers, but having reviewed the race again, i have concluded that Vautour increases his advantage over Al Ferof from the second last to the line. Again I stress Al Ferof isn’t the strongest stayer over 3 miles, but to my eyes Vautour proved he stayed 3 miles very effectively indeed. I for one will be snapping up as much as possible of the NRNB 7/1 for the Gold Cup as of he turns up Ruby will be on board and his price will be far far shorter than 7/1
My feeling is that Mullins and walshs first reactions are telling. Ok I’m not sure who said what exactly when but regardless of the subsequent signals they certainly felt he didn’t last out
Brennan’s comment about cue card racing relatively lazily was interesting too. In essence he may have suggested he didn’t quite run to his best
Ginger, not for the first time, opinions are polarised and people hold very strongly to their views. As I said in the last post, far too much has been made, imo, of a supposed stamina deficit in Vautour. I’ve read quite a few ‘out on his feet’ opinions before seeing yours, and a number of ‘running on vapours’ and several of that ilk from people who really should take a more objective view of their race-reading rather than interpreting it to meet their preconceptions.
You say Vautour was a ‘bad bet’ – what, by a head? Fair enough, he got beat, and I did not get paid out which is the measure of all wagers, but he was not a ‘bad’ bet.
I know you’re a big fan of Timeform. Here are a couple of excerpts from their report on the KG:
…the leader Vautour even further ahead 3 out before tiring through overexertion, rather than lack of stamina
…VAUTOUR (FR) upped markedly in trip, had clearly come on plenty for Ascot and proved better than ever on his second start out of novice company, just doing a fraction more than ideal in front and run out of it on the post, his tendency to jump left far less apparent than it had been the time before; pressed leader, tanked along, led tenth, ridden approaching last, not fluent there, driven and stayed on run-in, caught on line;
..and their conclusion: …. he clearly has the ability to be a strong contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, though with a slight doubt about his stamina
Now that’s a fair report and in line with my own reading of the race. Yes, there’s a slight doubt about his stamina on that evidence. My belief is that he’s improving, and strengthening and Cheltenham is his theatre, and Mullins and Walsh will have learned more about this young and inexperienced horse, and that’s more than sufficient compensation to make 12/1 look a gift from the Gods.
Vautour was imo a “bad bet” because – for me – beforehand there were several key questions Vautour had to answer; that made the offered odds too short. Most of which were answered! But the one fatal flaw proved the front/prominent racer who’s used to going quicker. We had a long discussion on this topic and you were adamant Ruby was going to hold the horse up and he’d settle there. But let’s draw a line under pre-race analysis.
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Seems to me it is not me or “people”, but you who “really should take a more objective view of their race-reading rather than interpreting it to meet their preconceptions” Joe.
You’ve reproduced quite a lot of the positive words Timeform had to say, yet not included most of the negatives. Here is the excerpt in full, together with Cue Card’s which you may have missed:
“Cue Card completed a magnificent seasonal hat-trick, adding a sixth Grade 1 to his tally, needing to run right up to his best, responding most generously to strong pressure (his rider rightly received a lengthy ban for his excessive use of the whip, around 15 hits in all); in touch, travelled well, chased leader from twelfth, driven straight, keeping on when mistake last, found plenty to lead on line; in a race which placed the emphasis on stamina as much as it could under the conditions, Cue Card was just the stronger stayer than Vautour and there are no real concerns after his last 3 runs about his lasting the Gold Cup distance, clearly a leading candidate as he bids to claim the £1 million bonus for winning the Betfair Chase, this race and the Gold Cup.
VAUTOUR (FR) upped markedly in trip, had clearly come on plenty for Ascot and proved better than ever on his second start out of novice company, just doing a fraction more than ideal in front and run out of it on the post, his tendency to jump left far less apparent than it had been the time before; pressed leader, tanked along, led tenth, ridden approaching last, not fluent there, driven and stayed on run-in, caught on line; his connections face a conundrum as to where he will be aimed in the spring, as he clearly has the ability to be a strong contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, though with a slight doubt about his stamina – in contrast to his owner’s other main candidate Djakadam, who’s inferior in form terms at present but proven at the trip – Vautour would likely take some beating in the Ryanair, but the lure of the Gold Cup may win out”.
You seem to be misenterpreting people saying Vautour was “outstayed” as them saying Vautour “did not stay”.
So I say “Vautour did prove he “stayed” 3m on soft going Joe, but he was “outstayed” by Cue Card”.
Timeform say “Cue Card was just the stronger stayer than Vautour”.
…Not much difference there.
I say “Had Ruby felt able not to race so prominently, needing to at first go along with and then set an overly strong pace… he may well have been successful”.
Timeform say “just doing a fraction more than ideal in front and run out of it on the post”.
…Not much difference there.
I say “Vautour’s chance in next year’s King George (EDIT: at 3 miles) will be good, if ground conditions are less stamina sapping and even more so if there are no other front runners in the race and he’s able to dictate. Indeed, I may well back him myself”.
Timeform say “driven and stayed on run-in”.
I can see the reasons why they put it that way. You can’t say a horse does not stay a trip and then say you’d advise punters to back the horse to stay the trip next year. But Vautour was – as Timeform admit – outstayed on Boxing Day.
If you care to look at both mine and Timeform’s post race analysis Joe, there’s very little difference. We both believe Vautour stayed 3m on soft and that he paid the price for his front running excertions. The only significant difference being that I believe there’s a bigger doubt than “slight” about him staying the Gold Cup distance.
But the thing you do not mention is Timeform’s words on Djakadam. If it wasn’t for the stable/owner companion (ie Vautour’s chance of actually running) then 12/1 wouldn’t be a bad price.
I’ll end with Timeform’s analysis of Don Cossack:
“Don Cossack faced the sternest test of his career and might well have passed it with a victory had he not fallen 2 out, rated accordingly, putting up another top-class effort; prominent, pushed along after halfway, lost place soon after, rallied well 4 out, responding well to pressure and narrowly ahead of eventual winner when fell 2 out; remains a leading contender for top honours this season, currently at the head of the shortlist for the Cheltenham Gold Cup”.
You may think Timeform were keen on Vautour’s chance, but they seemed a lot keener on two others. 😉
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/big-race-analysis-king-george-vi-chase-27122015
Value Is Everything
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