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We all know horses have off days but how did the market seemingly know this was going to be one of them? If the favourite ran to form Grandouet had little chance of reversing Cheltenham form yet he was extremely well supported despite the favourite seemingly starting out the fresher horse. Why did Carberry change previously successful tactics?
Not sure how you think Grandouet had little chance he could of beat or ran Zarkander close at Aintree if not coming to grief.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Grandouet would have reversed form with Unaccompanied today, in my opinion, even if Unaccompanied did run to form. Grandouet could have beaten Zakandar at Aintree but was brought down so if it wasn’t for that, Grandouet had the best recent form and was also lovely value.
Not sure how you think Grandouet had little chance he could of beat or ran Zarkander close at Aintree if not coming to grief.
Likewise at Cheltenham, he just pulled a bit hard early on and perhaps hit the front too early. I thought the long season might catch up with Grandouet today and backed against him, but he definitely had the potential to reverse placings with Unaccompanied (and indeed the quirky-looking Zarkandar in future) if producing his best.
Gandouet’s clearly very much on the upgrade, and although Unaccompanied probably wasn’t at her best (she certainly never jumped with any real fluency early on and got further behind) the Henderson horse was always going to turn the tables, for me.
FWIW backing Carberry on anything these days is torture; nothing seems to jump for him and it’s like he’s oblivious to everything else in the race. Avoid.
Not sure how you think Grandouet had little chance he could of beat or ran Zarkander close at Aintree if not coming to grief.
Zarkandar appeared to run way below at Aintree and could well have been a fortunate winner. Not the best experience for Grandouet though and a reproduction of the Cheltenaham run made Unaccompanied a clear pick. The initial market confirmed that with the favourite backed from 11/8 to odds on and little support for Grandouet. Closer to the race that all changed and the favourite ended up running an absolute shocker with the jockey dispensing with previously successful tactics for no apparant reason. Of course Grandouet had a chance but far more so if you had an inkling the favourite would run as she did.
All about opinions I guess.
Maybe Onthesteal has a point because it was the 1st time Carberry had ridden Unaccompained and he seems to prefer riding the hold up horses perhaps he thought he was on a Hurricane Fly type horse and
underestimated
the opposition and could pick these off with ease, I don’t know.
Don’t know about the prices as just watched the race only.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
- Total Posts 17716
Zarkander ran exactly the same RPR at Aintree as he did at Cheltenham, and actually improved his t/s figure by 6 points.
Grandouet improved his RPR by 3lbs at Aintree and it’s quite clear (imo) that he was travelling best when coming down, and would have improved his speed figure even more – maybe (probably?) even have beaten Zarkander.
On 2lbs worse terms, and ostensibly with 2.5l plus to find with Grandouet, there’s good reason to doubt Unaccompanied would have won, however ridden.Unaccompanied was held up when running a cracking race at Cheltenham so I’m not sure the tactics yeseterday were radical.
Not sure about the late drift (which wasn’t that dramatic). Could be that she wasn’t looking good in the paddock. Odds on looked short, maybe the market just corrected.
If you’re suggesting Stilvi that connections were somehow ‘at it’, I don’t think any of them would have the need for a few bob.
Zarkander ran exactly the same RPR at Aintree as he did at Cheltenham, and actually improved his t/s figure by 6 points.
Grandouet improved his RPR by 3lbs at Aintree and it’s quite clear (imo) that he was travelling best when coming down, and would have improved his speed figure even more – maybe (probably?) even have beaten Zarkander.
On 2lbs worse terms, and ostensibly with 2.5l plus to find with Grandouet, there’s good reason to doubt Unaccompanied would have won, however ridden.Well if want to take those ratings as gospel for a convenient argument that’s up to you but I prefer the evidence of my own eyes which was Zarkandar never travelled at all at Aintree and looked something of a flawed talent. Hence he was immediately shunted out in the market for the Champion Hurdle.
Unaccompanied was held up when running a cracking race at Cheltenham so I’m not sure the tactics yeseterday were radical.
Not sure about the late drift (which wasn’t that dramatic). Could be that she wasn’t looking good in the paddock. Odds on looked short, maybe the market just corrected.
If you’re suggesting Stilvi that connections were somehow ‘at it’, I don’t think any of them would have the need for a few bob.
She was held up midfield previously and never too far off the pace. The same couldn’t be said yesterday when Carberry immediately conceded eight lengths and at one point had allowed that to extend to fifteen. I don’t lay horses but I could see why someone might have done so very early yesterday.
Although it doesn’t look much 4/5 (possibly shorter) to 11/10 with the second favourite being supported is significant.
Not suggesting the connections were up to anything at all but in hindsight she shouldn’t have run and the market suggested she may under perform. Whether that was due to fantastic paddock judges who took advantage I couldn’t say.
He did the same on Silverhand in the 3-mile handicap, was about 1/2 a furlong behind the leaders most of the race (not exaggerating).
Zarkandar didn’t travel with any great fluency at Cheltenham either, Stilvi. He was driven along before the home turn, but stayed on as the speed horses wilted up the hill. As Unaccompanied and Grandouet mature and develop, they will surely be the more legitimate Champion Hurdle contenders to take from the race.
He did the same on Silverhand in the 3-mile handicap, was about 1/2 a furlong behind the leaders most of the race (not exaggerating).
Check out his ride on Martin Scuff at Punchestown Feb 16th. He was playing jockeys big time and ended up with egg on his face.
*Don’t take the egg on face bit literally.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
DK’s interview live on RTÉ about a quarter of an hour before the race would explain the drift on Unaccompanied.
DK’s interview live on RTÉ about a quarter of an hour before the race would explain the drift on Unaccompanied.
Bingo. For a trainer who is normally very positive about his chances, especially with his better horses, he couldn’t have been more negative. I’m not saying every layer was watching RTE, but those who were would have increased their original lays by multiples.
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