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It all looks really good on paper and on the clock, but sometimes I look at some things and think, that just can’t be right. This is one of those times and I cannot believe that Tamarinbleu is a 170+ animal.
I imagine those people who think that Tamarinbleu put up a top-class performance at Ascot have done so after viewing things with a degree of scepticism. I know I did.
They entertained the possibility that the form was not all it looked, and to a degree they might still think that’s the case.
Have the people who dismissed the VC Chase out of hand actually considered the alternative, however? It was a race in which a horse set a searching gallop and wiped the floor with performers proven at and just below the top level in what seems to have been a very good time.
It is certainly at least possible that the performance deserves a lot more respect than some are giving it.
It all looks really good on paper and on the clock, but sometimes I look at some things and think, that just can’t be right. This is one of those times and I cannot believe that Tamarinbleu is a 170+ animal.
DJ, I’m looking for reasons for it not to look as good as it does on paper, so far i cannot find one shred of evidence tbh
This to me is no different than Kauto Star posting 180 + in first BF chase or Denman routing his field in Hennessy
Like the VC, those two performances on paper made sense to me
It all looks really good on paper and on the clock, but sometimes I look at some things and think, that just can’t be right. This is one of those times and I cannot believe that Tamarinbleu is a 170+ animal.
That is an opinion, not an attention-seeking soundbite, laddie.
Yes, because I’m going to describe why the race is a farce on Youtube…
I can’t wait. Please explain why this "farce" of a race was run in a time more than 7 seconds quicker than a Grade 2 novice over same course and trip while you are at it.
Sorry?!
What was I meant to be apologising for?!
That post was certainly not meant to be directed at you. I had already resigned myself to having to wait for you to reveal all on YouTube.
a) apparently not: did you consider that you possibly should?
b) apparently not: did you consider that you possibly should?
c) yes, or possibly just a bad call.
d) I’ve noticed: very sporting of you.The business about the time is independent of the relaying of the course, unless they did so in between the 1:45 and the 2:20.
You’re telling me, that a horse who couldn’t win handicaps off a mark of 147 last year, a horse who beat Crozan by a nose when getting 7lbs, a horse who was smashed 19 lengths by Voy Por Ustedes in 2006, a horse who was smashed 11 lengths by Exotic Dancer, a horse who has never won a race within 4.5 seconds of standard time, has now all of a sudden found this surge of improvement from nowhere? Some people have him running to the mid-170s. That would constitute 2 stone of improvement over his past 3 starts.
He’s a completely exposed horse who got the run of the race. That is it.
By the way, rather ironically, another horse who got the run of the race in a Grade 1 recently, Hoo La Baloo (who was raised 13lbs for that 4th place), finished 40 lengths behind Tamarinbleu. Believe me, this streak will end, and at 5/2 for a place in the Queen Mum, I’m a huge layer.
An excellent post. I agree and I’ll certainly be laying him in someway.
I think its silly when these kind of discussions turn into an argument. If people so vehemently disagree with Jackane, rather than repeatedly telling him that he’s wrong – why don’t you let him think that he’s right and profit from his ‘poor’ judgement? 5/2 for a place would be great for you if you believe Tamarinbleu really has improved by two stone.
Tamarinbleu may just be a better horse at Ascot than at any other track. His record here is 3 wins from 4 runs. The only time he didn’t win was when he was pulled up after a bad blunder.
He was allowed an easy lead and the race was run to suit him. It was a very good performance but he is not a horse I would want on my side at the festival.The business about the time is independent of the relaying of the course, unless they did so in between the 1:45 and the 2:20.
Ooops, missed that off. Well it’s your prerogative to accept the times, but on a newly laid course, I’d want substantial proof of racetimes being fast/slow before I made judgement on them.
And I want substantial proof that Tamarinbleu didn’t beat Twist Magic, Masony etc on merit
So far, none has been found
Tom Scudamore is possibly one of the best jockeys at riding the Ascot track as well.
In 2007 he won on 3 of his 8 rides at the track.
In 2008 he has won on 2 out of 4 rides at the track. (One of the rides where he was beaten was on the 66/1 outsider).Could the brilliance of Tom Scudamore at Ascot have helped the performance at all?
It certainly couldn’t have harmed it.
Has anyone realised that the horse is a monster of a January horse. He has never been beaten when racing in the month of January.
He has ran 3 times in his career in this month and has recorded 3 wins.
Combine these 3 facts:
He never loses in January
Tom Scudamore rides Ascot brilliantly
He has won 3 of his 4 races at Ascot (only defeat when serious blunder bought him to a virtual standstill)Could the above 3 factors be a possible explanation for the great performance which I feel it was.
TC
The proof you put forward does not take into account the application of headgear and what effect this can have.
The 4 runs with 3 wins and 1 second since being applied tell you it’s application has had a effect on this horse and the form of races without headgear probably have little relevance regarding current ability
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I refuse to believe headgear is the result behind an apparent improvement of close to 2 stone.
TC
Why?:
Do you think it has never happened before?I refuse to believe headgear is the result behind an apparent improvement of close to 2 stone.
Fair enough
I have just rewatched the Ascot race and Twist Magic ran right up to form with stable companion Hoo La Baloo.
Also, take Tamarinbleu out and an 11l beating of Mansony would have scribes writing Twist Magic victory speeches already.
The blinkers do seem to have brought improvement from Tamarinbleu this season. I also think the front running style suits a small horse who gets intimidated in a pack.
Often when a "talking horse" gets beat, peeple make excuses for them. Personally I think Twist Magic has it all to prove now, and with Voy Por having proved himself around Cheltenham twice, he rates as banker material unless the ground is soft/hvy – in which case Nickname and Tamarinbleu become the ones to concentrate on.
Perhaps the trainer has had something to with it as well.. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Pipe Junior just understands this horse better and has gleaned improvement from him.
I’ve backed VPU at Chel Fest and he’s won both times – he is a champion and will not go down without a real scrap.
However, we cannot ignore the fact that he was beaten by a better horse in the Tingle Creek (unless VPU was not 100%?). If VPU is 4/1 – 5/1 ish on the day then I make him a good EW bet for the Queen Mother
When pushed though, if the ground is decent, ie nothing worse than good to soft – I think Twist M will prob have too much toe.
I hope the ground is good as it will be a fab battle bewteen them.
I fully respect Tamarinbleu who has been underrated – by me too!
Zip
I mean seriously, is it any wonder I chose to use a different username? For 3 months I posted as Triple_Crown and 3 or 4 times maybe, people replied to my posts. Suddenly Jackane’s name pops up and two forumites decide to jump all over me. Sad old men is all I can say.
I’ve just revisited this thread having realised that a) Triple_Crown and Jackane are one and the same (a bit slower than most of you did, but there you go), and b) I neglected to respond to any of TC’s further replies.
Please appreciate, TC, that there is no phalanx of "cliquey friends" looking to put the boot in here, but at the same time appreciate that Jackane’s reputation inevitably got to the stage of preceding him, following such incidents as submitting a Racing Post-aspiring journalistic piece on here which decried certain racing personalities as b*stards, and of course that protracted spat with one of the paper’s columnists.
If the rebranding of yourself as TC was intended to wipe clean the slate where TRF is concerned, I think it’s worked – it appears to have coincided with some far more consistent, considered, rational postings.
Appreciate also, however, that damning a race that some saw as reasonable form and others as maybe a little less solid as an outright "farce" still seemed rather too strong without any explanation immediately forthcoming. On previous evidence it seemed a very "Jackane" sort of response, hot on the heels of that little altercation on the wrestling forum, and not a very TC one at all.
Nobody on this Forum has a vested or preconceived interest in wanting to belittle, bully or have removed any other forumite (even those ultimately proven to be spammers or new incarnations of Kravitz), and that includes the forumite called Triple_Crown. I don’t know if the journalistic aspirations remain, but I’d suggest that anything you’d offer for publication in the Features section would garner a more favourable response this time around if the other TC postings are any guide – go on, prove some "sad old men" (if 33 is old) wrong today!
Very best wishes,
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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