- This topic has 51 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Sometimes it seems to me as if Twist Magic does not find a great deal off the bridle. Heavy ground not ideal in such cases. Though I do agree, I would very much doubt if he will stay 2m 3f, and todays conditions made it more like that sought of test.
I would still have him fav for the Champion and ignore this run completely. He has long enough to get over it. Given good-soft or firmer should run well at Cheltenham.Value Is EverythingI get Tamarinblue posting 177
Tried finding a reason for it not to be right because of improvement shown, but It fits if i say TM has improved a couple of pounds on Tingle run and Masonry has run near to Durkan/ Dail a bet
Topspeed gets 174
alsoI either need some new calculations or we have just seen a QM winning performance
TC.
Plenty of people were probably thinking similar about Newmill before he went on to muller Fota Island, Central House, Moscow Flyer and co
I thought he looked a right horse 1st time up and you wouldn’t have thought for 1 minute he was a non stayer and thought Barney was talking rubbish…….apologies
But now even if Twist magic gets better ground at the Festival he has no chance of getting the trip in the Queen Mother……they don’t hang about in that one and you have to be a very fast front runner who just gets the trip or a horse with speed who stays 2m2 to f2m4f……….He seems to be neither….waste of time sending him on that run IMO
TC.
Plenty of people were probably thinking similar about Newmill before he went on to muller Fota Island, Central House, Moscow Flyer and co
Newmill was a second season chaser who showed elements of talent in his novice year when winning a Grade 2. He finished 7 lengths behind Brave Inca twice in a row. And that’s a hell of a lot better than Tamarinbleu has achieved in properly run races.
You’re telling me, that a horse who couldn’t win handicaps off a mark of 147 last year, a horse who beat Crozan by a nose when getting 7lbs, a horse who was smashed 19 lengths by Voy Por Ustedes in 2006, a horse who was smashed 11 lengths by Exotic Dancer, a horse who has never won a race within 4.5 seconds of standard time, has now all of a sudden found this surge of improvement from nowhere? Some people have him running to the mid-170s. That would constitute 2 stone of improvement over his past 3 starts.
He’s a completely exposed horse who got the run of the race. That is it.
By the way, rather ironically, another horse who got the run of the race in a Grade 1 recently, Hoo La Baloo (who was raised 13lbs for that 4th place), finished 40 lengths behind Tamarinbleu. Believe me, this streak will end, and at 5/2 for a place in the Queen Mum, I’m a huge layer.
At around the same age as Newmill was being beaten by Brave Inca in Grade 2 hurdle races, Tamarinblue was winning Grade 3 Handicap chases off a 10lb higher official rating and being awarded a similar RPR, but lets not dwell on that.
You’ll notice that on his last 4 runs Tamarinbleu has had blinkers fitted, could these not be part of the reason for his improvement???
Headgear and dictating races seems to have helped another horse go from a 150 horse, to one who can produce Grade 1 form, in fact, these tactics have helped him win two Champion Hurdles
- Total Posts 17716
To my mind it was one of the most impressive sights I have seen all season.
He outjumped several good horses at several fences, galloped them all into the ground, and still found more towards the end of the race. Whatever one makes of the ground, the time of the race was also miles clear of anything else achieved on the day and, for me, it had all the hallmarks of a very high class performance. Whether he can reproduce it on the likely better ground of the Champion Chase is debatable, but the fact remains that he beat some very good horses, at the top of their game, pointless today, and in no way would I have it down as a fluke result.
It is also worth noting that it is only the second time he has actually forced the pace and made full use of his fast and accurate jumping, with the same result as in the Boylesports, and he would be far from the first horse to show much improved form for such a change in tactics.
Twist Magic, imo, is a short runner at the very top level, something he hinted at in the Tingle Creek when he went from cruising to all out at the end of the race, his only other stiff test over fences, and puts in perspective his fall 2 out, when still travelling well, in the Arkle. Disappointing really, as he had shown all the signs of being a top class 2 miler, but short runners won’t be winning this year’s Champion Chase, particularly not with Tamarinbleu to tow them along.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7-NzWYwT8E
Look who the poster is…
Blast me sideways. Him again!
Ye verily Jackane24 is the internet sports equivalent of an itch.
Irrespective of whether Tamarinbleu’s a 170 or 160 horse or something inbetween on Saturday’s showing, the wee man’s decrying of the contest as a "farce" is characteristically some way off the mark.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Just remove Tamarinbleu and you get
Twist 173
by 11
Masonry 158
by 16
Shindlers 149
by 1
HLB 155 ( I believe he’s over-rated and should be nearer Shindlers mark)Not one person would query this result and TM would probably be no bigger than evens for QM.
So can someone explain why this actually adds up, but putting Tamarinbleu in first , posting a monster rating does not?
Why are people having such black and white views?
To say Twist Magic will not win the Champion is nonsence.
To say he will win is nonsense.
Twist Magics performance at Sandown (which is a fairly testing course, on softish ground) was quite impressive. Though the pace was not great. I thought the media went overboard on how good the run was.
However, haven’t they done the opposite for the VC? If my life depended on picking the winner, right now I would have to go for Twist Magic. To beat Voy Por Ustedes like he did, he must have the best chance of winning the Champion at this moment. Could be a better horse on good ground. Have always thought he sometimes finds little off the bridle and would not stay 2m 3f. But even allowing for that, he should be favourite. It is just a matter of is his price now value, in my opinion, not.Value Is EverythingThere are some very strong (and sensible) negatives against Twist Magic in The Queen Mother: nearly all winners have won over further than 2m (because Cheltenham requires stamina beyond a normal 2m – and, as has been discussed here, there are doubts about his); 6 year-olds very rarely win (he’s six); and you need course form (fell in the Arkle on his only start at Cheltenham).
It’s strange how close Twist Magic’s profile is to Kauto Star’s when he ran in, and was a hot favourite for, The Queen Mother. And if Kauto couldn’t overcome those stats, even though he’s since won way beyond 2m and won a Gold Cup, I wouldn’t be confident about Twist Magic doing so.
It looks like Voy Por Ustedes could win again, even though I’ve never been convinced that he’s good enough to be a two-time winner of the race.
Voy Por all the way for me, the race at the weekend just confirmed it for me to be honest.
I expect the ground to favour Voy Por at Cheltenham, better than it did in the Tingle Creek and i think he will run another big race.
Let’s hope so, the price looks a backable one at the moment.
Because Tamarinbleu would have improved a stone in a month…
That does not explain the finishing positions of the other horses
Whatever the precise merits of the VC Chase, I suggest that anyone who describes Tamarinbleu’s success as a "farce" should give up gambling before they do themselves some serious damage.
Did he describe it as a "farce", with no qualification? If so, then the post can clearly be directed as much at him as at the person who posted the video with that title on YouTube.
I don’t see how you can rate Twist Magic’s performance at Ascot where he clambered exhausted over the last two within a stone of his romp up the Sandown hill. I’d say Mansony was well below his best as well- time may show that he’s not the best traveller (got warm beforehand, well stuffed at Aintree in ’06)
I too think that 173+ for the winner will prove an inflated figure.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.