The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Tuesday 18th April

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Tuesday 18th April

Viewing 8 posts - 1 through 8 (of 8 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #2012
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    2:00 Newmarket 5f 2yo Conditions Race

    Weight adjusted ratings and expected odds

    Il Palio 70 8/1<br>Stir Crazy 69 6/1<br>Gilded 69 4/1<br>Love In May 70(+) 8/1<br>Chief Editor 75 10/3<br>Lord Charles 73 14/1<br>Urban Warrior 72 7/1

    Chief Editor is top rated of those that have run but is also expected to be favourite. The horse beat Urban Warrior on debut although that form could easily be reversed. I expect Urban Warrior and Gilded to be well supported but am happy to oppose those two. Urban Warrior needs further and cannot make it a stamina test on Good ground while I’m not sure Gilded has had much to do.

    Stir Crazy beat Hucking Hill by 0.5l last time but that form was undermined today by Hucking Hill again coming 2nd. I think the horse is very interesting from a good draw but it has the lowest rating of all of these and will need to improve on ground that may not be ideal.

    Il Palio has won its only race so far as has Love In May who impressed in beating what could be a decent field but the quick pace that day set the race up nicely for Love In May who had to be ridden 3f out before picking up well. LIM should beat Il Palio who barely beat Urban Warrior at Kempton, will struggle to beat it again, and who really didn’t impress me on the day. Love In May could be a danger at what might become a nice price but there are couple of others I prefer.

    The two I like of those that have run are Chief Editor and Lord Charles. The first is well drawn and has a nice weight while Lord Charles is a cracking price considering it has little to find and should improve. LC beat a couple of decent rivals who had an edge on him experience wise and at the price must be backed. Chief Editor dili-dalied at the start but still mastered Urban Warrior in the last 3f and I think the price of 7/2 (perhaps slightly less) is perfectly fair.

    The newcomers will have to be decent to win first time out but that is not out of the question. Deadshot keen is out of a modest dam and will be better for the run while Excellent Art may want further but demands attention looking at its breeding. Resignation may also want time and is not guaranteed to be up to this standard. Excellent Art is expected to fare best of the newcomers especially if it is well supported.

    2pts win Chief Editor 7/2<br>1pt win Lord Charles 14/1<br>1pt win Excellent Art 11/1

    #64993
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    FSL

    The test of the ratings begins when these maiden winners start running against each other, tomorrow is the first test! I agree that Chief Editor looks to hold good claims as he seemed to put in a decent effort last time with a bit to spare.

    Not sure I’d be taking a great deal of the collateral form too literally at the moment. I think it is far more productive to be assessing which horses are lkikely to be progressing from one run to the next and why they may progress further under tomorrows conditions.

    I think Love In May could run a big race as well for a yard that remains in good form. I don’t think he has a great deal to find with Chief Editor and for all her win was in a poor time, it is working out well.

    I would disagree with you about Lord Charles, I think there is a possibility that his debut win flatters him to a certain extent, unable to lie up with a strong pace and picking off beaten rivals so I’m not convinced there will be as much improvement from him as people think.

    I think Resignation is the sole newcomer that could get involved and how he fares in the betting against his stablemate Gilded should tell us what we need to know.

    Good luck though.

    #64994
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I hope you can see that I would not be surprised if Love In May did win DJ. The 6/1 available on Betfair at the moment doesn’t appeal to me though. With regards to Lord Charles you are of course exactly right about him rattling home from the back. I’m not saying it is the most likely winner but I’m saying its overpriced and will have a chance if the leaders go too fast. Trying to cover every angle I suppose. We will see anyway.

    #64996
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I am extremely keen on the chances of Love In May (2.00 Newmarket) and will be having a suitably large investment in her.

    My other fancies for today:

    Marriage Value 2.35 Newmarket<br>I’m In Love 3.10 Newmarket<br>Pivotal Flame 3.45 Newmarket<br>Hawridge Prince 4.55 Newmarket

    Those in italics will only be backed if some success is found earlier in the day ;)

    (Edited by LetsGetRacing at 12:16 am on April 18, 2006)

    #64998
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Excellent Art N/R I’ll put that 1pt on Stir Crazy who is too big on Betfair at 25/1

    1pt win Stir Crazy 25/1 (Betfair)

    #64999
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    LGR

    Far be it from me to tell you how to stake your bets, but would you not be better reducing your stakes on the others to ensure you have the funds for the final one. I imagine there would be nothing more frustrating if the others go down and you then watch in horror as the one in the lucky last steams in at 25/1.

    #65000
    caravancaravan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 107

    Levera 2.35 and Wingman 4.55 for me

    Won 9/2 & 3rd 15/2<br>

    (Edited by caravan at 9:49 pm on April 18, 2006)

    #65002
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 7:41 pm on April 17, 2006[br]2:00 Newmarket 5f 2yo Conditions Race

    Weight adjusted ratings and expected odds

    Il Palio 70 8/1<br>Stir Crazy 69 6/1<br>Gilded 69 4/1<br>Love In May 70(+) 8/1<br>Chief Editor 75 10/3<br>Lord Charles 73 14/1<br>Urban Warrior 72 7/1

    Chief Editor is top rated of those that have run but is also expected to be favourite. The horse beat Urban Warrior on debut although that form could easily be reversed. I expect Urban Warrior and Gilded to be well supported but am happy to oppose those two. Urban Warrior needs further and cannot make it a stamina test on Good ground while I’m not sure Gilded has had much to do.

    Stir Crazy beat Hucking Hill by 0.5l last time but that form was undermined today by Hucking Hill again coming 2nd. I think the horse is very interesting from a good draw but it has the lowest rating of all of these and will need to improve on ground that may not be ideal.

    Il Palio has won its only race so far as has Love In May who impressed in beating what could be a decent field but the quick pace that day set the race up nicely for Love In May who had to be ridden 3f out before picking up well. LIM should beat Il Palio who barely beat Urban Warrior at Kempton, will struggle to beat it again, and who really didn’t impress me on the day. Love In May could be a danger at what might become a nice price but there are couple of others I prefer.

    The two I like of those that have run are Chief Editor and Lord Charles. The first is well drawn and has a nice weight while Lord Charles is a cracking price considering it has little to find and should improve. LC beat a couple of decent rivals who had an edge on him experience wise and at the price must be backed. Chief Editor dili-dalied at the start but still mastered Urban Warrior in the last 3f and I think the price of 7/2 (perhaps slightly less) is perfectly fair.

    The newcomers will have to be decent to win first time out but that is not out of the question. Deadshot keen is out of a modest dam and will be better for the run while Excellent Art may want further but demands attention looking at its breeding. Resignation may also want time and is not guaranteed to be up to this standard. Excellent Art is expected to fare best of the newcomers especially if it is well supported.

    2pts win Chief Editor 7/2<br>1pt win Lord Charles 14/1<br>1pt win Excellent Art 11/1<br>

    1st Gilded 5/1<br>2nd Lord Charles 10/1<br>3rd Chief Editor 4/1f

    A nice performance from Gilded who moved smoothly in mid division before speeding home to win going away. This horse has twice now cost me money and perhaps I’ve underestimated it. The irony is Lord Charles was good value but this is 4pts down the drain and Gilded is going to be watched very carefully now.

Viewing 8 posts - 1 through 8 (of 8 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.