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Mr Woolf,
Rather than carry on with your paranoiac crusade I suggest you concede defeat by reading, absorbing and learning from Gingertipster’s impressive pin-pointing of Tantshi (backed) and Viking Storm (drifted) before the event
One of the more worthwhile – nay crucial – duties a punter should undertake is to analyse the winners of races in a dispassionate, clinical and uncoloured manner in order to glean ‘how and why’ they won: occasional head-scratchers but usually not, if you’re prepared to do the little bit of digging exemplified by Messrs Tipster and Large
Those that dismiss superficially ‘curious’ results as being due to nefarious practices are simply choosing the easy life beloved of the lazy
On Wednesday last these horses won, both at 10/1 :
8.30 Kempton AEGAELUS
Ginger, you may have a ready explanation for their amazing
turnaround in fortunes. I look forward to hearing it.AEGEUS:
As Mike rightly points out Woolfie, Aegeus’s form is much better on Polytrack, something all punters should know, because even his handicap mark is higher on the All-Weather. Much more consistent on that surface too. Like Mike, I am not a great one for taking jockeys in to account, but it may not be a coincidence Ryan Moore was also on board for Aegeus best turf performance, 4th of 10 at Sandown. He certainly rode an excellent race at Kempton. Dictating a slow early gallop and then kicking for home off the turn. A horse with 10f speed racing at 12f, out in front off a pedestrian gallop. Along with surface and jockey; again, position and pace vital. Not one, not two, not three, butFOUR
possible reasons for Aegeus winning!
If you question these two performances Woolfie; no wonder you think the game is bent.
Value Is EverythingYour attempts to explain turnarounds are unconvincing I’m afraid but I will post further examples as they occur. It will take more to persuade me that there is no non trying.
Your attempts to explain turnarounds are unconvincing I’m afraid but I will post further examples as they occur. It will take more to persuade me that there is no non trying.
"Unconvincing".
But nobody is saying "there is no non trying". Just nowhere near to the extent you try and make out.
I’m afraid you just don’t understand the form book Woolfie.
Value Is EverythingYou asked for examples, here are another two from Tuesday last 2/9/13:-
2.30 Brighton FATHER FRED won 25/1
3.20 Foss Las McDELTA 20/1
Please explain why I failed to find these two excellent winners.
You asked for examples, here are another two from Tuesday last 2/9/13:-
2.30 Brighton FATHER FRED won 25/1
Please explain why I failed to find these two excellent winners.
2nd race at Brighton: NO horse came stand side, but the winner raced in the centre, beating the odds-on favourite who raced nearer the far side.
3rd race: They all raced near the stand side rail, with winner coming right up the rail.
4th race: Coming in to the final 2 furlongs it looked like any of 3 horses could win. The one on the far side first beaten. Odds-on fav racing one off the rail just getting the better of the runner-up on the rail.
5th race: Mizyan led most of the way but looked beaten 1 1/2 furlongs out, yet despite having pulled hard fought back on the rail to win.
6th race: First 2 were 2 of 3 horses racing nearest the stand rail until drifting left late on. Second had the rail for a long way but possibly went a touch too fast.
7th race: Winner Pilates raced nearer the stand side rail than the other principles…
So to Father Fred…
1st race: It being the first race the state of the track was not known. Father Fred came nearest the stand rail and was considerably nearer the rail than the other principles in the final furlong where he came clear.
There is often a golden highway at Brighton and jockeyship is a very important factor, more so than most racecourses.
Father Fred was only having his 5th race of his life, so there is a good chance of progression and of being green in earlier races. Particularly when his first race was only in June of this year. Contrast that with the other horses. Two were having their 13th race, one 25th, one 46th, one 55th, one 60th and one 85th. Also take a look at the race distance of 6f and breeding. It’s not easy for connections to know what distance suits because the dam won over middle distances, but the sire Pastoral Pursuits a sprinter. According to Timeform, by far Father Fred’s best rating in those four previous efforts came on his second start, the only other time he’d encountered 6 furlongs.
So where Father Fred raced, having little experience and coming back quite a bit in trip were probably important factors in his improvement Wolfie. Whether the first reason will mean he’s badly handicapped next time out – remains to be seen.
Value Is EverythingPlease explain why I failed to find these two excellent winners.
This may go to the heart of the problem Woolfie. You think it should be possible to find every winner beforehand. For a punter to always think that way must drive him/her barmy. Forget about it, it is not always possible. However, it is a lot easier to look back in hindsight to see possible reasons. Of course hindsight does not allow you to pick that particular winner, the race has gone. But it may well teach a punter lessons in finding other winners in future.
Value Is EverythingOn Wednesday last these horses won, both at 10/1 :
8.30 Kempton AEGAELUS
Ginger, you may have a ready explanation for their amazing
turnaround in fortunes. I look forward to hearing it.AEGEUS:
As Mike rightly points out Woolfie, Aegeus’s form is much better on Polytrack, something all punters should know, because even his handicap mark is higher on the All-Weather. Much more consistent on that surface too. Like Mike, I am not a great one for taking jockeys in to account, but it may not be a coincidence Ryan Moore was also on board for Aegeus best turf performance, 4th of 10 at Sandown. He certainly rode an excellent race at Kempton. Dictating a slow early gallop and then kicking for home off the turn. A horse with 10f speed racing at 12f, out in front off a pedestrian gallop. Along with surface and jockey; again, position and pace vital. Not one, not two, not three, butFOUR
possible reasons for Aegeus winning!
If you question these two performances Woolfie; no wonder you think the game is bent.
Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Presumably if the horse is obviously that much better on polytrack then Ed Dunlop must be a pretty stupid trainer to have continually run the horse on turf. Add in the horse had looked a serious dodgepot. I suspect this was one of those races blighted by a slow pace and the form will be pretty much worthless. Let’s see if the horse can follow up at a much shorter price. In my opinion the winner represented no value whatsoever and it was a surprise result. The most interesting aspect of the race for me was seeing Ryan Moore riding like a man possessed. If only he did similar on all his rides.
On Wednesday last these horses won, both at 10/1 :
8.30 Kempton AEGAELUS
Ginger, you may have a ready explanation for their amazing
turnaround in fortunes. I look forward to hearing it.AEGEUS:
As Mike rightly points out Woolfie, Aegeus’s form is much better on Polytrack, something all punters should know, because even his handicap mark is higher on the All-Weather. Much more consistent on that surface too. Like Mike, I am not a great one for taking jockeys in to account, but it may not be a coincidence Ryan Moore was also on board for Aegeus best turf performance, 4th of 10 at Sandown. He certainly rode an excellent race at Kempton. Dictating a slow early gallop and then kicking for home off the turn. A horse with 10f speed racing at 12f, out in front off a pedestrian gallop. Along with surface and jockey; again, position and pace vital. Not one, not two, not three, butFOUR
possible reasons for Aegeus winning!
If you question these two performances Woolfie; no wonder you think the game is bent.
Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Presumably if the horse is obviously that much better on polytrack then Ed Dunlop must be a pretty stupid trainer to have continually run the horse on turf.
Add in the horse had looked a serious dodgepot. I suspect this was one of those races blighted by a slow pace and the form will be pretty much worthless. Let’s see if the horse can follow up at a much shorter price.
In my opinion the winner represented no value whatsoever and it was a surprise result.I agree Stilvi, I would not have backed Aegeus either. The reasons I gave are of course in hindsight, but they are still reasons for the horse to have shown the form he did. ie highly unlikely any skulduggery involved; which is what Woolfie implied.
Value Is EverythingYou asked for examples, here are another two from Tuesday last 2/9/13:-
2.30 Brighton FATHER FRED won 25/1
3.20 Foss Las McDELTA 20/1
Please explain why I failed to find these two excellent winners.
Remarkably, I backed this pair of easy-to-find winners, both of which positively leaped out of the page at me.*
Mike
*Dammit. Did ’em in a treble with the Archbishop Of Canterbury…
And McDelta,what can you come up with to explain his sudden improvement.
It’s odd that Dunlop had not noticed Father Fred’s preference for Polytrack.
And McDelta,what can you come up with to explain his sudden improvement.
It’s odd that Dunlop had not noticed Father Fred’s preference for Polytrack.
I do have other things to do on a Friday night Woolfie, give me a chance.
Trainers are not form experts. And Ed Dunlop is probably biased and did not want to admit Ouija Board’s son is a dog and only good enough for the All Weather.
Value Is EverythingIt’s odd that Dunlop had not noticed Father Fred’s preference for Polytrack.
I assume you mean Aegaeus? Father Fred is won at Brighton (still turf as far as I know!) and trained by Chris Dwyer.
I presume Ed Dunlop did know about Aegaeus’s preference Polytrack. Looking for a suitable opportunity perhaps?
In Father Fred’s case it looked a classic ‘in a field full of moderate horses have a look at those who have done least wrong’!
One of the ‘bolts from the blue’ in recent weeks up here recently was Stoneacre Oskar winning a Hamilton sprint maiden at 80/1. Had shown very little at Wolverhampton in three run and Southwell in one outing, but Hamilton, three furlongs downhill then three furlongs uphill is totally different from those two tracks. I thought at the time it was a race that looked ripe for a shock, but the puzzle is tying down which one. In hindsight a lay at the front of the market was the option. Does give a little hope to those busting a gut at the lower level to get races out of moderate horses. For all I know Peter Grayson, much maligned by some on here, had been working his a**e off to get something out of Stoneacre Oskar and it came together at Hamilton. No advantage gained from a handicap point of view and I can’t imagine a gamble was landed at 80/1!
In the long run it may prove not to be the complete fluke it seemed as first as the second at Hamilton, Pilates, has started to progress a bit. In addition a subsequent fifth by Stoneacre Oskar at Doncaster, beaten 3.5 lengths, is starting to look pretty reasonable on the back of decent runs form the first three in that race since.
By the way Woolf, don’t be tempted to pick up a book by Ross Newton called ‘Tail End System’. Your head would explode if you read that!
Rob
A few more outliers from the weekend’s racing :
Cosmic Halo won 33/1 3.35 York Sunday 8/9/13
Redvers won 8/1 1.55 Ascot Saturday 7/9/13
Confessional won 15/2 2.05 Haydock Saturday 7/9/13
Storm Moon won 10/1 5.55 Thirsk Saturday 7/9/13These are perhaps the most difficult to explain from a longer list of 18 in total.
A few more outliers from the weekend’s racing :
Cosmic Halo won 33/1 3.35 York Sunday 8/9/13
Redvers won 8/1 1.55 Ascot Saturday 7/9/13
Confessional won 15/2 2.05 Haydock Saturday 7/9/13
Storm Moon won 10/1 5.55 Thirsk Saturday 7/9/13These are perhaps the most difficult to explain from a longer list of 18 in total.
You had eight odds-on shots running on the Flat on Saturday. The only winner coming at lowly Wolverhampton. Loads of handicaps and plenty of short-priced favourites being turned over in conditions races in other words bookmaker heaven.
A few more outliers from the weekend’s racing :
Cosmic Halo won 33/1 3.35 York Sunday 8/9/13
Confessional won 15/2 2.05 Haydock Saturday 7/9/13
Redvers won 8/1 1.55 Ascot Saturday 7/9/13
Storm Moon won 10/1 5.55 Thirsk Saturday 7/9/13Redvers
is not the easiest to win with as he has to be covered up as much as possible. His race cooment for his Haydock win earlier in the season says a lot ‘going well when not much room over 2f out until well over 1f out, angled into clear approaching final furlong, pushed along to lead final 100yds, kept on well’. Sometimes running into trouble helps a hold up horse like this one. I backed him at Newmarket when he was fifth and I thought he ran creditably in coming fifth if never quite looking like winning. I couldn’t make out a strong case for anything over the field on Saturday.
The point about Redvers is that far from being unpreditable he is actually very consistent. He competes regularly in these ultra-competitive he’s regularly in the mix and has only been beaten over 5 lengths in 4 races out of 28 in his career. This season he has been within 3.25 lengths of the winner in all bar one race, arguably meriting a single figure price. That’s a competitive animal at Class 2 level.
Confessional
is a win in turn sprinter who is comeptitve at Class 2 level on his day, and notably had fallen to a mark of 94, a pound below the mark he won off at Chester in 1012. The field cut up to ten runners which probably helped and he does act on soft. Anyway, he presumably doesn’t mind his racing and got word that he was in last chance saloon!
Incidentally take a note of
Racy
who once again was backed to a single figure price but he’s only ever won twice in 30 runs and beat only 8 horses in those two races.
Storm Moon
has been kept busy but was coming off his closest effort for some while having been beaten only 2 lengths at Chester last time. He has been highly tried in Class 2 and Class 3 events all season and it’s notable that he has dropped to Class 4 for his latest two runs. He might be worth a go on the all-weather if Mark Johnston can find a race as he has run two artificial surface races and won them both. He’s on a amrk of 85 on A/W so there should be something out there for which he qualifies.
Cosmic Halo
? Not a clue! But then sh*t happens and I hadn’t realised that horses starting at 33/1 weren’t allowed to win now and again, say every 50 races or so…
Keep ’em coming because this is turning into a handy lesson for spotting how horses can pop up at decent odds!
Rob
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