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I am glad you acknowledged my post. Why? because it rings true for you who offer several potential winners in a given race.
You are in agreement with me, you accept that there will be runners in given races that have not given of their best in recent races.
We have no argument you and I, we could meet in a bar and celebrate our common view that we are a few steps ahead of the bent trainers and their despicable stunted accomplices in the saddle.
Just develop that train of thought as I have done of late and realise a profit. In my absence I have done just that and a departure from the mugs way can pay off.
You are in agreement with me
No Woolfie, we are not in agreement.
Value Is EverythingWe are of the same mind Ginge, you accept that horses of greater value may not have given of their very best in recent outings. My successful system is based entirely on that premise, the only difference is that I tend to plump for only one selection per race. Do you deny that form is disguised or are you so pitifully naïve that you believe that horses are compelled to give their all in every race?
You are defending the indefensible, horses are held back from producing what horses do naturally, ie keep up with the flight of the herd or lead that flight.
We are of the same mind Ginge, you accept that horses of greater value may not have given of their very best in recent outings. My successful system is based entirely on that premise, the only difference is that I tend to plump for only one selection per race. Do you deny that form is disguised or are you so pitifully naïve that you believe that horses are compelled to give their all in every race?
You are defending the indefensible, horses are held back from producing what horses do naturally, ie keep up with the flight of the herd or lead that flight.
Woolf, its fairly obvious and known to everybody that there are plenty of horses in maiden hurdles probably not trying (know nothing about the flat). That’s the unfortunate side effect of the handicap system but it would be impossible to train a horse if you were unwilling to play that particular game unless you had a champion. Nobody fancies these horses, nobody tips them in the paper and they usually have no form to begin with.
Not generally an issue with the fare we watch on channel 4
4 every weekend where we can all be pretty confident about the product.The idea of bent trainers constantly going for a gamble being the norm is simply not true (if thats what your suggesting?). These long shots with no conceivable form haven’t been backed…if they had been, they wouldn’t be long shots would they????
Also the fraud squad really are to be feared by those thinking they could make a living from laying there own horses. In addition, the liquidity in these markets is in many ways far less then it used to be and probably wouldn’t be enough to make it worth while. IT certainly couldn’t go undetected for too long.
Also,,I don’t feel that you understand all the variables that mean the difference between winning a race and finishing out with the washing. Some horses can run to incredible consistency, others need every star in the heavens to align for them but most are somewhere in between. One or two variables can make the difference. That’s the fun.
SHL
We are of the same mind Ginge, you accept that horses of greater value may not have given of their very best in recent outings. My successful system is based entirely on that premise, the only difference is that I tend to plump for only one selection per race. Do you deny that form is disguised or are you so pitifully naïve that you believe that horses are compelled to give their all in every race?
You are defending the indefensible, horses are held back from producing what horses do naturally, ie keep up with the flight of the herd or lead that flight.
Woolf, its fairly obvious and known to everybody that there are plenty of horses in maiden hurdles probably not trying (know nothing about the flat). That’s the unfortunate side effect of the handicap system but it would be impossible to train a horse if you were unwilling to play that particular game unless you had a champion. Nobody fancies these horses, nobody tips them in the paper and they usually have no form to begin with.
Not generally an issue with the fare we watch on channel 4
4 every weekend where we can all be pretty confident about the product.The idea of bent trainers constantly going for a gamble being the norm is simply not true (if thats what your suggesting?). These long shots with no conceivable form haven’t been backed…if they had been, they wouldn’t be long shots would they????
Also the fraud squad really are to be feared by those thinking they could make a living from laying there own horses. In addition, the liquidity in these markets is in many ways far less then it used to be and probably wouldn’t be enough to make it worth while. IT certainly couldn’t go undetected for too long.
Also,,I don’t feel that you understand all the variables that mean the difference between winning a race and finishing out with the washing. Some horses can run to incredible consistency, others need every star in the heavens to align for them but most are somewhere in between. One or two variables can make the difference. That’s the fun.
Ok, somebody tell me to stop behaving like an idiot if this idea is really stupid.
What if channel 4 run a well publicized segment, called "how to read form and pick winners".
Obviously we can all read form to some extent but there must be loads of people out there, casual observers of racing who don’t understand and don’t have the time to get into it. Perhaps such a segment over a couple of weeks might help there appreciation of the game in general??SHL
We are of the same mind Ginge, you accept that horses of greater value may not have given of their very best in recent outings. My successful system is based entirely on that premise, the only difference is that I tend to plump for only one selection per race. Do you deny that form is disguised or are you so pitifully naïve that you believe that horses are compelled to give their all in every race?
You are defending the indefensible, horses are held back from producing what horses do naturally, ie keep up with the flight of the herd or lead that flight.
You believe skulduggery is rife Woolfie.
I believe skulduggery is occasional.There is a chasm betwen us.
As SHL rightly points out, you don’t seem to realise there is a stable load of valid excuses for a horse not to run to form.
I note you say in a previous post Woolfie,
"this that sticks in the craw of anyone foolish enough to venture a tenner or so on a horse".
So anyone betting on horses is
"foolish"
, yet in the space of a couple of posts you now have a
"successful system".
As you are obviously ignoring it Woolfie, I will say it again…
The
"outsiders"
actually win the percentage of races their price entitles them to. Not (as you put it)
"too many"
at all.
Just as short and medium priced horses win the amount of races they are entitled to. And…If you were right, IF
"too many shock results happen on a daily basis"
… we could just back outsiders blindly and make a profit. But to do this would in fact show a big loss. So you are clearly
WRONG
. There are
NOT
"too many shock results on a daily basis"
.
Value Is EverythingOk, somebody tell me to stop behaving like an idiot if this idea is really stupid.
What if channel 4 run a well publicized segment, called "how to read form and pick winners".
Obviously we can all read form to some extent but there must be loads of people out there, casual observers of racing who don’t understand and don’t have the time to get into it. Perhaps such a segment over a couple of weeks might help there appreciation of the game in general??Not "stupid" at all SHL.
Trouble is, it is not really in their best interests to do so. Part of the mentallity of the casual punter is to excuse his/her own poor judgemnt as the jockey/trainer’s fault. Therefore, many punters actually want to believe the game is bent.You’ve also seen what happens every time I mention the "Mathematics Of Betting". Something that every professional gambler understands and adheres to. Reading form is no good if the punter can not evaluate it in to whether a price is value or not. Yet even some very knowledgeable punters simply do not want to know. So explaining something so important that it comes in to every other aspect of form – to "casual observers" will not help.
Anything for the casual racing enthusiast needs to be very basic, better for a programme on
"basic form study"
than
"how to read form and pick winners"
it is not until much later a punter can learn the latter. However it is true SHL, that a lesson of "basic form study" is a good idea for the "casual observer". But that in itself will need to be so basic as to be percieved by the average viewer as "patronising". Clare Balding often comes out with things that would be worth knowing for the casual observer, yet is so obvious to most of us it’s jumped on by so many on this forum as "patronising".
As far as a
successful
programme illustrating
"how to read form and pick winners"
for the more knowledgeable punter goes – it would not be "successful" for long. Bookmakers/exchange market makers would change the odds offered almost instantly. ie If by doing all the things the programme says (before the programme) shows a 25% strike rate @ an average price of 4/1 – it would show an excellent profit. Once the market takes account of the programme/change of punters habits – the strike rate remains @ 25% but average price drops to say 11/4. So the way to make a profit before the programme is no longer profitable.
Best any C4 viewer can hope for is to learn bit by bit, listening to the form/betting experts Jim McGrath and Graham Cunningham each time they are talking about a different aspect of form/betting. Most punters won’t bother, and you can build up your own knowledge bit by bit.
Sad thing is punters are in competition with other punters and only a very small number can ever be successful. If the majority of punters become more knowledgeable then the successful punter needs to become even more knowledgeable to keep ahead.
Value Is EverythingYou believe skulduggery is rife Woolfie.
I believe skulduggery is occasional.There is a chasm betwen us.
If Wolff were presented with a drink and took a sip I presume he would see it as 1% empty. The vast majority of rest of us would view it as 99% full?
Rob
"successful programme illustrating "how to read form and pick winners" for the more knowledgeable punter goes – it would not be successful" for long"
Ok, lets drop the pick winners of the title. I have read form Ginge, for 20 years, without making money overall. However, reading or just understanding helped me to appreciate and love the game more. I feel that Jim and Graham are excellent but they are tailored to their audience.
I see three issues..
1) As it currently stands, my friends cant understand why I would watch racing without betting on it. We don’t sell racing as a sport anymore, we sell betting and I feel that immediately excludes a lot of people.
2) Leading on from 1, attempting to educate a new audience in the basics might seem patronising but this doesn’t need to be if its done in an imaginative fashion. Betting can be a facet of this but just that, a facet.
3) We don’t sell the big show-downs enough. Obviously difficult to do but the network showing the Champion Stakes in Ireland this weekend should leave nobody who is casually surfing the tv channels in any doubt that a big event is coming and who the principles might be. Never underestimate hype!! Just watch transfer deadline day on Sky Sports (although that torture should be against the Geneva convention.
SHL
I have read form Ginge, for 20 years, without making money overall. However, reading or just understanding helped me to appreciate and love the game more. I feel that Jim and Graham are excellent but they are tailored to their audience.
Totally agree SHL.
Value Is EverythingI see no reason why we can not attract different people with different add campaigns. I became interested in racing as a child because of the horses, before I even knew what betting is. There is not enough emphasis on the stars, horses and jockeys, and yes, the sport. But fact is most people become interested in racing because of the gambling aspect and we should not shy away from advertising the fact. Contrast someone sat on a sofa watching a ball fall from a machine – to a couple in the Grandstand, jumping up and down, waving their arms around and shouting home their winner.
Value Is EverythingRacing is missing a fantastic marketing opportunity.
Most people have hobbies or favoured pass times, some people like to have a night out with friends at a their chosen Restaurant but the restaurateur isn’t going to give you 10 meal vouchers to the price you paid for your meal because you happened to pick the best value meal on the menu!
You can go down the pub and have a great evening but the landlord isn’t going to give you 5 drinks to 1 about your chosen beverage!
Whether it’s going to a restaurant, down the pub or going to a concert the point is it costs money and we pay for a good time which is absolutely fine.A day at the races has so much to offer, the sights and sounds, the Horses and Jockeys, the parade ring etc.
Set your budget for the day including having a bet because there is nothing quite like watching your selection passing the winning post in first place and even if you fail to back a winner, you set aside the money in the first place and have witnessed these wonderful beasts in full stride, the Jockeys in action, the bookies shouting the odds or receiving your tote ticket, had a meal and a drink and just maybe it’s your lucky day and you end up with more money in your pocket than you started with, either way it’s a win win situation.There is a case for explaining racing terminology and form, the basics, what do the form figures mean next to the Horses name? What is a Handicap race? What’s a Furlong? What are blinkers and why do some Horses wear them?
All form is subjective, teaching people the information contained within the race program has nothing to do with value it’s about knowledge and enhancing the race-day experience.
Value as a concept is an extremely useful way to engage people in the subject of Odds and their respective percentages, Danny Hall wrote an excellent book entitled “ How to Win on the Horses”, at the back of the book (Appendix E) is a chart called the “Expected Value Grid” it poses the question- if a race were able to be run under identical conditions 10 times, how many times would you expect the Horse you are interested in to win the race?
It’s a simple entry point into an individual’s view of what constitutes Value.
If anything racing has suffered from successive Government’s failing to teach children even the basics of probability and risk management but that’s another subject.
Actually since I have a head of steam up, ill propose two other things.
1) Charismatic racing commentators. I have heard the merits of commentators discussed in many forums here. Being calm, able to accurately go through all the runners is all very well but when somebody is surfing channels on the tv or the radio, one one thing makes them stick. Charisma!! A commentator has to make an event sound exciting first and foremost, anything else is a bonus.
2) Put a microphone near the crowd. An obvious thing that really helps convey an atmosphere.
SHL
We are of the same mind Ginge, you accept that horses of greater value may not have given of their very best in recent outings. My successful system is based entirely on that premise, the only difference is that I tend to plump for only one selection per race. Do you deny that form is disguised or are you so pitifully naïve that you believe that horses are compelled to give their all in every race?
You are defending the indefensible, horses are held back from producing what horses do naturally, ie keep up with the flight of the herd or lead that flight.
in the space of a couple of posts you now have a
"successful system".
:
I have not been idle in the year I took out of betting and I have paper trialled a few different methods, one of which returned a healthy profit on paper and is now delivering on cash invested.
It’s entirely based on the premise that horses are not asked for their best efforts in races until the DAY, I search for clues as to when the Day may be imminent. It’s not difficult.
I search for clues as to when the Day may be imminent. It’s not difficult.
Me too. I call it form study.
I find it incredibly difficult.
Mike
I search for clues as to when the Day may be imminent. It’s not difficult.
Me too. I call it form study.
I find it incredibly difficult.
Mike
It’s not form study, that’s a waste of time.
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