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Trying new system, etc

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  • #4917
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Hi,

    First post, so here goes. Been lurking for a little while but thought I’d jump in.

    Main point of this thread is creating a lay system using tipsters. I have a few ideas but thought it would help writing it down and seeing if anyone else can chip in.

    I’ll start the thread proper tommorrow, but will be using the Naps table in the RP. I’ve tried a couple of tip based systems previous, even turning a backing one into a laying one after a large loss, but it promptly swung the other way. Grrrr….

    Okay, lets have a look at the worst tipsters first.
    What we’re looking for is someone with a historic poor record, who has recently won a race as the sr is quite low. We’ll also add a few manual filters such as no odds on, and no major price gaps. We’ll tweak the rules as we need to.

    This is the first time I’ve used the naps table, so I’m hoping it’ll be updated tomm morning so I can try it and give a sel.

    Also, while I am posting, something which might interest one or two of you.
    I run a small system testing group as well. We test 2 systems each (some commercial, some home made and some ltd availibility) and pool ther results to see which ones work. No cost. Test 2, and results for 10+ odd. Mon-Fri. I have 2 vacancies at the moment due to minor expansion and hols. Ideal for someone who hasn’t made it yet, but prepared to put the work in. All results private – no tipping service planned. If interested, and you want a look at a results sheet, PM me!

    Anyway, we’ll try this tipster lay system from tomm and see how we go.

    All contributions welcome.

    #112215
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Best of luck Elbie and welcome to the forum

    #112248
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Ok, off we go.

    Lets start off with finding tipsters who are losing monthly and for the year and pick the worst. To start off, at least, I’ll just the bottom 10

    Next we’ll look for those who have won yesterday.

    This gives us four to choose from. It gets little more tricky from here as I think you can only go by the tipster stats so far. Time to look at the horses themselves, trying to KISS.

    Johar Jamal Yor1.35. No tipsters have chosen this. F/c is 12/1. On Betfair, thats likely to be exagerrated but a safe lay I’d say looking at the price gap & RPR. I’ve just had a look at best price and its shrunk to 7/1 on live betting. Does someone know something here? We’ll keep this in mind, but am looking for a safer one. Plus points – large field, a clear tipster fav and other tips spread around.

    Quest for Success. Also Yor1.35. F/c 33/1. 1 tipster. 33/1 in live market. Liability too large.

    Next is Reverance Yor3.10. 3/1 to 7/1 f/c price gap. Another large field and tipsters have sread themselves around a bit. Live price has drifted a point from f/c. This is more like it. Mild concerns are Kevin Darley riding it and top RPR.

    Moorhouse Lad, same race. No tipsters. Lower RPR. Odds f/c and live at 8/1. Looking good (trying to use ceiling of 10/1)

    Todays Lay Nap is (drumroll…) Moorhouse Lad/York/3.10
    Will also track Reverance (same race) due to price gap and large field. Seeing how relevent RPR can be – can’t base it on one race, obviously but I have to build the data somewhere.

    Discarded – Quest for Success. Too large liability.
    Discarded – Johan Jamir – price has shrunk too much to be comfortable.

    In time I’m looking for more sels, as one bad result will need 2 weeks to fix it otherwise.

    Lay Price Moorhouse 10.00
    Lay Price Reverence 11.00

    All thoughts welcome!

    #112249
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Hi Elbie,

    Welcome to the Forum and best of luck.

    I suggest you remove your email address and use the forum’s private messenger service, otherwise you will get even more spam than you probably get already.

    #112250
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Thank you – and done.

    So far its that rare beast – an e-mail address with no spam (yet!).

    #112254
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5860

    Elbie,

    Welcome to TRF and good luck with your system.

    Regards – Matron
    :cool:

    #112266
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi Elbie .. if you are in training as such why not start off laying on the place market, it’s cheaper and the results should be the same over time.

    #112271
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Thanks for that. Hadn’t thought of that.

    Moorhouse 3.5 (4th)
    Rev. 5.5

    Might need to add a couple of rules, but as its a work in progress I can adapt as we go.

    Not sure whether this should be Lays sub-forum or Systems. Hope I’ve plonked it in the right place.

    As for me, I’ve gambled, off and on for about 10 years with moderate success, but earlier this year I thought I’d give it some proper attention. As there are too many systems for any one person to test (and vast majority of back dated stuff such as Massey, doesn’t include RP stats) I rounded up a few others and test a few each and share the results. From this I have started using some of this data to gamble for real, after its backtested live, with the aim of building a big enough pot to go fulltime using a portfolio of systems which have been verifed by my Seven Runners group. I have several ideas knocking around, but thought I’d try this one first. I don’t normally post that often on forums, but I’ve picked up quite a few slants on this one I thought its only fair to see if I can do the same for someone else. While I admire the people who can study form, I don’t have the patience, time or mindset.

    #112288
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I think your stuff will be all right in here because system based selections and you are opening the process up for discussion.

    Elbie, I think you might want to brace yourself for a bit of flak for what you have just posted up there .. unless you know exactly how you are winning when you do win and why you are losing when you do lose you are simply punting. There’s nothing wrong with that but it’s a huge step from being a good punter to a full gambler.

    Regarding ratings .. Adrian Massey, Topspeed, RPR, newspaper ratings etc. All of them from time to time change the way they calculate their ratings and unless you know how and when they have changed them then you are really on a hiding to nothing, because you could be working your systems against historical data that is no longer relevant.

    Newspaper forecast sp’s are the same .. sometimes they calculated them from their own in house ratings and sometimes they don’t .. they will just use the press association tissue.

    #112298
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    A good start today, but not off to the carribean just yet.

    Thanks for prev post. All fair comment.

    Just to clarify my last post (and head off some flak!) I’d better explain I do not bet "by the numbers" only. I do tend to favour probability and work the numbers angle. Thats one reason I constantly test new ideas as what might have worked a while ago, doesn’t do so well now. Tipsters are one of the more "dodgy" methods, admittedly and part of this thread is partly curiosity to see if a successsful system can be built. Most of my stuff is more methodical and tighter, and I adapt some systems to my own preferences based on previous experiences. I also discard sels when I am not happy with what it has thrown up. Normally I’m right, but I’d rather be wrong by not betting, than betting and being wrong if that makes sense – better to miss a profit, than incur a loss if unsure.

    I hope no-one misinterprets previous post. Each to his own methods. One thing I’ll be looking into later will be the VDW to get a fresh angle and see if I can mesh into what I know already. Do I have to buy the whole set, or can I buy and learn a section at a time and just add as I go?
    :D

    I hope I’ve explained myself better, and thank you to those who have taken the trouble to post. All welcome.

    #112373
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    No sels today as all bottom tipsters all lost yesterday.

    To increase sels, I’m wondering if I can include after 1 losing race as well as a winner.

    I’ll carry on as is for the moment until end of month and decide then.

    Because all sels lost yesterday, instead of just a "nap", I’ll grade them instead to see if that throws up anything.

    #112596
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Todays sels.

    Using same idea so far, we have 2 possibles today. The third tipster is up this month, whereas the other 2 are negative monthly and seasonal.

    Fat boy 3.35 Rip
    11/10 fav. 11/4 nb. 8 vs 5 tipsters. Field of 7.Tipping an on form fav in a small field at near evens??? May be I should become a tipster! Grade 3. Betfair has shrunk odds.

    Al Tharib 4.35 Kem.
    Field of 4 runners. Tipped by Spotlight. Not much of an odds gap between this and fav. 7 vs 4 tipsters going with fav. 6/4 f/c. Grade 3. Neck and neck with fav for price on Betfair.

    Rubbish choice today. More and more I think I may need a system with more sels, or use it, if successful, as a secong line system. We’ll try it to the end of the month and take it from there.

    Performance so far –
    Grade 1
    Win +1pt
    Place variation +1pt

    Grade 2
    Win +1
    Place +1

    Grade 3
    Win +2
    Place +2

    Todays prices –
    Fat Boy – win – 1.87/place – 1.31
    Al Tharib – win – 3/place n/a

    In reality wouldn’t touch either of them, but I’ll rank them as grade 3 which is the dumping ground of all poor sels.

    #112888
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Looks like my reality check would have paid off – both came in. Time for a new rule. Min of 9 runners and no odds on sels.

    What are todays choices? In theory none because the bottom 10 all lost yesterday apart from one, who is up on the monthly.

    As I’m strugling for sels, I’ll bend the rules and say +0.25 is not significant to stop us looking further.

    His choice is Cat 3.20 Micaria.

    Lets have a look.

    This is more like it. Large field. Clear runaway fav. Not much diff in the range where this one sits. No tipsters. Not near top RPR. Price has drifted from fc. Grade 1

    Betfair
    24.00 win.
    6.4 place.

    We’ll ignore the win as liability too high and just monitor the place.

    #113009
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Here we go again.

    Results, such as they are –

    Grade 1
    Win +1
    Place +2

    Grade 2
    W +1
    P +1

    Grade 3
    W +2
    P +2

    Today we have 4 potentials
    English Archer 5.10 Mus. Is fav, but by far. Most tipped, but only has half the votes. Not top RPR. 14 runners. Grade 2

    Welcome Approach 2.40 Mus. 3rd fav. 2nd most tipped. 14 runners. Borderline, but I’ll go for a Grade 2, not 1.

    Desparate Dan. 3.00 Wol. Not so good from a lay few. Large price gap. 12 tipsters. Only things in its favour, largest field and it only takes one mistake in 5f races. Grade 3

    Ataca. 2.10 Mus. Fav (fc 4/1). Large field, tips are spread around. Very small price gap. Nothing special about RPR. Grade 1, but could get a place.

    Live prices
    Atacca. 8.0 win (drifted – good sign). Place. 3.0UNPLACED
    Welcome Approach. 5.2win, 1.9place.2nd
    Desparate Dan 2.06win/1.23placeWON
    English Archer 6.4win/2.42placeUNPLACED.
    Will work out bank tomm.

    As you may have noticed, the analysis of the horses is fairly lightweight. The main premise is the worse tipsters can’t hold a run of two. The extra quick checks are there just to make sure nothing obvious is missed.unpl

    #113127
    Elbie
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Results below. May be instead of worrying about low sels, I just lay all combinations. May be higher stakes for higher grades? Still early days though.

    Grade 1
    w 2 2/2
    p 3 3/3

    Grade 2
    w 3 3/3
    p 1.1 2/3

    Grade 3
    w 0.94 2/3
    p 1.77 2/3

    Today, just the one

    White Deer. Chs 2.55.
    Largest singular tip, but minority tipped overall. Large field. On the minus side a Johnson horse and top RPR. Prices fairly huddled. Due to price shrinking from 3/1 fc to 2/1 live, this is now a grade 2.

    w3.3
    p1.62

    If anyones reading I still have one place on my testing group. All our systems are up so far for the month, today notwithstanding (thats jinxed it!). Just drop me a PM and I’ll send you the results sheet and a bit of blurb.

    Good luck

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