I’ve been comparing a trainers 14 day strike rate with their 2 year strike rate.
For example, 14 day strike rate of 20% divided by 2 year strike rate of 10%, 20 divided by 10 = ratio of 2.0, so you could say that in this paticular the trainer is currently over-performing.
A ratio of 1.0 and below and the trainer could be said to be under-performing.
I started from this point….
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdGgxanRpckczV0N6VzI1b0haTWpmS3c&hl=en#gid=0
and ended up with this……
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdHIxZFlpZ3BuZzZ1TTRYbTF3VEw5VEE&hl=en#gid=0
At the end of the day I think the market will be the best indicator, whether said trainer is in or out of form.