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How many of these “trainers to follow” mentioned in this thread actually show a profit when backing every runner?
We all have our favourite trainers and those we dislike… but should also fight our own prejudices otherwise we’ll end up in the poor house.
Yes, study trainers to find out how they operate. Their good and bad stats etc and allow for that in the odds we’re prepared to take. However…
Why go out of your way to back a trainer whose runners are – at that moment in time – in poor form?
And
Why avoid a trainer whose horses are – at that moment in time – in good form?Value Is EverythingHi GT.
As posted upthread:
I think James Moffatt runs a canny operation up there in Cartmel.
Over the past 5 seasons, including this one, Moffatt’s strike rate is a steady 11% from 10 winners per season. Supporting his every runner during this period, a blindly devoted punter would have secured a profit of £112 to a £1 stake.
I bet I could put the mockers on that if I started backing them!
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysYou’d better be able to stomach some pretty long losing runs too if the overall strike rate is only 11%. I know what would happen if I did this – back a whole string of losers, lose faith in the idea and then watch aghast as the big price winners roll in.
Has Moffatt made a profit every one of those 5 years, Seasider?
I know it wouldn’t make any difference to the overall profit, but it could be a sign the profit may be coincidence. ie Potentially nothing to do with future results.I say this remembering many years ago the “stats” seemed to suggest backing trainer Brendan Powell (senior)’s Fontwell runners blindly – with a similar overall profit as you give for Moffatt. However, Powell’s profit (if I remember correctly) came from just a couple of winners @ 100/1 and 50/1.
Big priced winners are comparatively rare. However, the fact there’s so many trainers means there’s actually a massive chance of some trainers having a couple of big priced winners close together… And the same goes for stats regarding all racing (not just one course).
Don’t get me wrong. I have no doubt that some trainers horses are generally under-estimated in the market. But knowing which are truly under-estimated and which are coincidence isn’t easy until it’s too late.
Value Is EverythingI can’t believe this was 16 years ago, on January 24th 2005 at Fontwell:
Bubble Boy 100/1, Waltzing Beau 20/1 (I thought he was 50/1 as well) and Old Buddy 10/1 – a 23,330-1 treble…. That long ago…..GT:
In reverse chronological order, Moffat’s P/L sequence for the past five seasons is +7, +62, +92, -59, +4.
It’s clear this trainer needs at least one long-priced winner per season in order to return a +60 to +90 profit.
A punter requires faith in JM to achieve this on a basis regular enough to ensure a profit. As previously mentioned, said punter is going to find it problematic as to which horse, where, and when, because prior form pretty much goes out of the window.
To reiterate, I agree that past profit for JM does not have anything to do with future results.
To paraphrase John Randall, Moffat’s form book is a useful tool for predicting what will happen in the past.
“How many of these “trainers to follow” mentioned in this thread actually show a profit when backing every runner?
We all have our favourite trainers and those we dislike… but should also fight our own prejudices otherwise we’ll end up in the poor house.
Yes, study trainers to find out how they operate.”
Most unlikely to show a profit backing every runner of any specific trainer, at least in the medium/long term.
By way of example, just under 14,500 horses ran as 4yos in UK handicaps between 01/01/12 to 31/12/20, having just over 82,000 runs among them, a crude average of 5-6 runs.
5,744 won at least one of their handicap runs, about 40%.
2,305 won at least two, about 16%
795 won at least three, about 5%
and only about 1.5% won four or more.
So a trainer with say 10 4yos who run in handicaps in any given year, will have 50-60 such runs. Of his 10, four could well win, maybe one or two twice or more. To make a profit backing four to six winners and maybe fifty losers, one would need to be very fortunate with prices.
But most of the time the trainer isn’t expecting his horse to win. Rather the horse is running to get it ready to win in due course. By studying how a trainer operates, one can eliminate a great many of the losing races and, by focusing on those situations where the trainer is putting the horse in with a definite chance of winning, achieve a sufficient strike rate to be well in the black.
Taking Tinkler’s Citron Major as an example (not a 4yo of course but the profile of percentages is much the same for older horses), as a 3yo, 4yo and 5yo he needed several runs before winning, so one would naturally be cautious about his early runs this year.
In 2018 he won off 86 and 89, and in 2019 off 83, making no show in four later handicaps off 88, 88, 88 and 84. This suggests he was now not progressive, indeed had probably passed his peak as a handicapper.
So in 2021 one would logically be looking for him to be placed to win after a few runs and if indeed he was regressive from his 2018 peak (the win off 89), preferably when he was down to 83 or below.
It would have been an act of faith rather than reason to back CM in his first five runs this season. By his sixth he was down to 81, ie below his 2019 winning mark of 83, and running in a race of slightly lower class than the win in 2019, and was of potential interest. Depending how one evaluated the trip and having a 7lb claimer on board, there was a case for backing him then. But after that race, dropped a further 2lb and placed a mile down in class, and with his usual jockey back on board, he was of serious interest.
In short, given NT’s handling of the horse over previous years, there was really only any kind of rational case for backing him twice this year, when the 8/1 SP of the win on the latter run easily covered any loss if one had been tempted to back him as the outsider of ten on his 1 July run.
For all I know, CM may win again this season, but rationally it seems unlikely. Personally, I will now be content to wait and see if he stays in training for 2022 and, if so, hope again capitalise on him then, after he has had three or four runs and is back down to 79 or below.
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