Topweight

[shade]

I would like to try a simple system on here involving topweights.

Rules:<br>1) Must be seven lbs or above the second horse.<br>2) Must not have won last time out.

I will put all bets up without filters and review at a later date to see what happens.

Saturdays Bets; –

Strat 2.20 – Murray River (15lb)<br>Newm 3.35 – Mine (9lb)<br>Strat 4.05 – Cobbet (7lb)<br>Newm 4.45 – Itchington (11lb)

Thanx

:cool: <br>

(Edited by shade at 10:49 am on Aug. 9, 2003)

[Matron]

Good luck Shade with your 2 systems you are posting.

Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

[Robotica]

Hi Shade.

I have been using this little gem, (I call it the 7 pounder system for a few years).  In fact you have beaten me to it as I was going to start putting up the selections from next week. :biggrin:

If this is a new venture for you I hope you do not mind me poking my nose in at this juncture.

I have found that with this particular system it is not a good idea to get involved with the lower end of the market horses as they tend to produce a lot of false favs.

There are some really great value wagers to be had with top weights, the reason is of course is that most tend to think "oh that horse cannot win with all that weight".  Of course this is nonsence, I hold the the view that if a horse is 7lb clear of the next one, then this is the class horse on the OR’s and as such has an advantage, providing everything else is in it’s favour IE; distance going etc.

I also found that there are times when a horse has say a 5 or 6 pound advantage only but, note the jockey booking here, if it has a 3, 5 or 7lb apprentice on board, it now has even more of an advantage (in theory).

There are two such cases today (Saturday) where this comes into play, Nashaab and Mustawa.  The last one this week with this same advantage was Toni Alcala 11lb+3lb (Won 7/1).

It is also a very good idea to see if the horse has ever won of today’s OR (not weight) this will tell us if he is capable.

One filter which really has to be noted, 3yo races only are a no no using this system, as it just does not work in the main.

Good luck.

[shade]

Thank you Matron!<br>Robotica- I appreciate all thoughts on this. Its good to know you have used this system and it has produced a few gems for you. This is a new venture for me. Interesting that you looked at jockey’s carrying an allowance. I will be looking into this as well as numerous other things. I would love to find a system that can remain in profit, but understand there is a long way to go.

It would be all to easy to say this horse won’t win today, but its all part of the learning curve of systems.

4.30 Windsor – Single Trigger   (Esplanade would be my bet for this race)

:cool:

[shade]

It was no surprise to lose yesterday, and judgement would have told you a 100/1 shot with the calibre on form.

Todays selections are:

4.45 Southwell – Kippanour<br>5.15 Southwell – Blackchurch Mist<br>6.15 Winsor – Shielaligh

SR = 20%         LSP =  -£3.27

:cool:

[shade]

Three races for tomorrow, all at Newton Abbot.<br>2.30 – Better Moment<br>3.00 – Brother Joe<br>4.30 – Enitsag

:cool:

[shade]

Hmmmm, looking to be a long road. Please forgive the lack of stats, but I’m on the road and will be back at base by the weekend, when I will do the SR/LSP

Two for tomorrow

4.35 Sal – Strathsprey<br>4.55 Yar – Recording Session.

<br>:cool:

[Author]

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