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Tommy Gold NFL 2009 – Picks Tracking

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    On this thread, I’ll track all my NFL 2009 plays, starting with those for Week 1:

    Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

    Peyton Manning is one of the best QB of the league e since he has recovered well from his injury, Manning has carried his team to many victories, being very sure on his passing game and very effective.

    These Colts are by far the best of the both teams in my oppinion and they have the home advantage for this game. They are quite strong in the passing game thanks to their franchise QB and they also have a good team regarding its rushing game. You might not noticed it in their offense stats, since they play mostly by the air, where they can be the most dangerous, specially thanks to the Manning / Wayne double.

    Another factor to have in mind is that the Jaguars will play this game with 3 rookies, which I think is not a good idea and their inexperience will cause the their team a lot of troubles during the game.

    In my oppinion, the Colts will win this game at home by more than 1 Touchdown.

    Pick: Indianapolis Colts -6,5 -110 Bookmaker

    Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns

    Minnesota had a great problem in their air game, but with QB Favre we will not see that much trouble, in fact, this team besides being an excelent team on the rushing game, they became much more dangerous in the passing game for the obvious reasons. On the rushing game, the Vikings have the best rusher on NFL. Adrian Peterson is very fast, quick and strong, gaining a lot of yardage for his team and too hard to stop thanks to his bulky frame.

    What I really like on this team is their defense, very strong stopping both rushing game and passing game, since they are very agressive and Browns’ QB Quinn will suffer a lot on this game and will give away some nice interceptions. This pointspread os too low in my oppinion, since I believe that the Vikings are quite superior to these Browns and we will see Minnesota scoring a lot more points than their opponents.

    Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 Bookmaker

    Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

    As we all know, Stafford will be a starter in this game and I think that is an awful decision, because he will face a pretty good team, in a very difficult field and for a rookie, that can end very bad. Of course these Lions will not repeat again their 0-16 record, but they will not do much better this season. The biggest issue of Detroit is their inability to stop the opponent’s offense, both rushing game and passing game, and because of that, they suffer a lot of touchdowns per game and the Saints are all about scoring TDs with ease.

    The Saints were a bog dissapointment last season, but they improved their weak spot, their defense, which is better now and with the excellent offense this team has, they have good chances to reach the Playoffs. QB Brees shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field and the Lions defense is not suited to counter it properly. With their home field advantage, I believe this will be a Blowout game for the Saints.

    Pick: New Orleans Saints -13,5 -110 Bookmaker

    Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

    QB Ely Manning is a franchise quarterback and the Giants are very fortunate to have him on their team, but their greatest absence is Plaxico Burress, which was the number one receiver of Manning’s passes. Since Burress got in trouble with the Law, Manning has suffered a lot and the new receivers signed by the Giants, are very inexperienced despite I see that they show some quality, but overall the Giants offense is going to have a lot of problems, specially that the Redskins have a nice defense.

    Redskins offense will be focused in rushing the ball, since their passing game sucks. However, the Giants are very effective at stopping that kind of offensive game, because they have excelent players for that job. Factoring all these elements, we have everything to see a Low Point Game and I believe that we will not have very much points scored in this game.

    Pick: Under 37 -110 Bookmaker

    Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

    Defensively speaking, the Packers are quite good and that is a major complication to the Bears offense, because their rushing game will not have a great success against Green Bay defense, so they will have to resort to the passing game and there is where the problems will really start.

    Bears’ defense doesn’t scare their opponents like they did in the past and they will face a Packers offense with an excelent QB Rodgers in great shape and I rate him as the best quarterback in the NFC North. Green Bay is very strong on the passing game thanks to their QB Rodgers and that will be the major factor for a win by 1 Touchdown or more for the Packers, with the added advantage of having the home field with a great crowd supporting them.

    Pick: Green Bay Packers -3,5 -111 Unibet

    • Total Posts 197

    San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

    Historically is a fact that the Chargers are able to kick Raiders rear end, dominating the games on both offensive and defensive ends of the game. Tomlinson loves to play against Oakland and I believe this is the best spot for him to reverte to his good old form and show to everyone in the league that he is an elite rusher, because the talent is already there.

    QB Rivers is very reliable, makes good decisions on the field, his passes usually suffer very few interceptions and he has good options in his offense to play with. These Chargers are starting the regular season as a favorite team to win the Super Bowl, because the team is very complete, very strong on the defense, very good on the offense and their opponent on this Monday Night Football game is a team with an offense very weak and predictable, which relies on their rushing game as main weapon, but San Diego Defense is more than able to stop them.

    Oakland is a very confounded team, they have a weak defense, their offensive game has only a few options to work with in their offense, the coach is one of the worst currently working on the NFL, with his unfathomable choices during the games, and when I add all this together, I simply can’t see how these Raiders can really provide some resistance against the Chargers. That’s why I believe that San Diego will win this game with a 2 touchdowns difference at least, therefore there is still value on the -10 pointspread for the Chargers.

    Pick: San Diego Chargers -10 (1,91) Bookmakers

    • Total Posts 197

    Oakland defended very well, very well indeed. In the offense, like I predicted, they scored only a few points. On the other side, excluding the winning touchdown, Rivers played awful, Tomlinson followed is footsteps… And Raiders was able to completely stop the Chargers’ rushing game. IMO, OAK deserved to win the game, despite their lack of Offense power/ability, they had a great Defense e and SDG was simply nullified, getting a winner TD in the final minutes… This was a MNF and the Raiders in National TV Coverage, were very motivated to win this game and that attitude is what you always expect from a Live Dog. On the other side, the road favorite played well below his full abilities, like if they felt the PRESSURE…

    Congrats to those who picked the Oakland Raiders +10. (Y)

    Ended the Week 1 with 3-2 on SIDES and 0-1 on TOTALS, so… 3-3 for the NFL 2009 season.

    • Total Posts 197

    New England Patriots @ New York Jets

    This game has an extreme rivalry, everybody knows that both teams dislike each other and there are always arguments between coaches and players, before, during and after the games, but truth is, in the end, the Patriots always take the upper hand in this matches always loaded with great rivalry.

    To be honest, the Jets were a good surprise on Week 1, they played very well on the Defense, delivering a lot of pressure on the opponent QB and rookie QB Sanchez did a reliable game and had a nice debut, however the Texans rarely pressured him and he did everything he wanted to do, which surely will change on this game against the Patriots.

    Defensively, the Jets were excelent estiveram excelent against Houston, but the Texans don’t have the offensive solutions that New England has at his disposal on their arsenal. The Patriots has the best Offense and will surely make life harder to the Jets Defense, both on the Running Game and on the Passing Game as well, because New England is much more stronger than the Texans when it comes down to score the points.

    The Patriots will miss due to injury a very important player: Jerod Mayo was hurt against the Bills and he will be out for a few weeks. Despite his absence, New England did a good job against the Bills, under the circunstances, if we take in account that of the 24 points conceded by the Pats, 7 (a touchdown) were offered by Tom Brady, therefore, only 17 points should be accounted to the New England Defense.

    It is probable that the Patriots will do tactical changes on their D, but for me, they are ready to face the Jets Offense. Belichick knows too well that in order to win this game, his Defense will have to pressure the Jets rookie QB with a lot of sacks and to disrupt his work. Sanchez will not have all the commodities enjoyed against the Texans, so they will simply come after him, inflicting on him a lot of damage and forcing him to make the errors and bad decisions throughout the game.

    As I already told you, the Pats have great Offensive Power, but on the Ground and on the Air as well. Tom Brady started his first game of the season after a long stop delivering short passes, but when it was needed, he took care of the game with his perfect throws aimed to his Wide Receiver and Tight End, which resulted in another Patriots’ victory.

    I also want to add that the New England Offense on his last drives resembled the team that benefited from great success in 2007. The ease that the Pats showed to arrive to the Bill’s end zone was quite impressive and I think that despite a very hard victory, it gave the New England defensive line a boost on their Morale and to their QB Tom Brady as well, which already knows that he is ready to deliver the long passes when needed and to do a very agressive game.

    For all these reasons stated above, I believe the Patriots will win this game by double digits and therefore, there is a lot of value on this line.

    Pick: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek

    • Total Posts 197

    Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

    Houston comes from a heavy defeat at home against the Jets and they will play next Sunday against a very good team, which actually also lost their first game.

    For what I saw from the Texans, their QB doesn’t seem to be at 100% and their option for the rushing game hasn’t done anything good, since the Jets were able to stop that kind of game. Despite all this, Houston will choose to use the rushing game against the Titans, but I believe they won’t be able to achieve great success doing it, because Tennessee have a great defensive line against that kind of plays.

    The Titans have one the best overall rosters of the NFL, their Defense is excelent and practically all their plays are very physically strong. It is true that their rushing game against the Steelers didn’t played quite well, but the Houston Defense doesn’t have anything related to the Pittsburg D, henceforth I think that the key for the success of this game for the Titans to win this match is lying on top of their good rushing game against a very weak defense on the opposite side.

    Besides their Rush Offense, they also have a good weapons on their passing game and those who witness Houston’s first game, could see how difficult it was for them to play against the Pass Offense. As I already stated, the Titans are fresh and have one of the best teams in the league and they had more resting time than the Texans, which is also an added advantage, but that is not the most important factor.

    Titans should win this game by at least one TD or more, because their Defense is playing very strongly and this Tennesse team is too good to even went 0-2. The value is on the Titans side and that is the side I will take for this game.

    Pick: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker

    • Total Posts 197

    Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

    I can only see the Vikings win Big and the reason for that is quite simple: Minnesota has a very good Defense indeed, both on the Ground against the Air, their defensive line doesn’t allow any room for easy plays to no one. Their rushing game is impressive and we already know that and the reason for it: Adrian Peterson, which is in my opinion the best Running back in the league and he proved it again on Week 1. He is fast, athletic and very strong physically, doing whatever he wants against the opponents defenses.

    Last season, Minny great problem was their Passing Game. With the arrival of Brett Favre, that aspect of the Vikings’ offensive game has improved considerably and the team has now a lot of options and plays to choose on their Offense, which will make the lives of their opponent’s Defensive lines a lot harder, because now they will not know what to expect from that Minny’s OL. If last season, it was obvious how Minnesota would play, this season the opponents defensive coordinators have to prepare their Defenses both for a Favre’s pass or against another Adrian Peterson rush.

    The Detroit Lions continue to have the same problem as last year: a very weak Defense, both against the passing game as the rushing game as well. Simply put, the Lions’ D sucks and honestly I don’s see how they will stop Adrian Peterson’s rushes or Brett Favre passes. Other factor that plays against Detroit on this game is that the Rookie QB Stafford is still a freshmann and he even didn’t do a bad game against the New Orleans Saints, but he registered 3 interceptions against one team that in my opinion is far below on Defensive quality when stacked against the Vikings Defense, therefore, I don’t see an easy life on this match for the Detroit’s rookie quarterbacks.

    It is true that the Lions registered 27 against the Saints, but those who saw that game, know that Detroit scored their touchdowns mostly thanks to the serious mistake by the New Orleans Defense, which I already stated, is weaker than the Vikings D, otherwise, had the Saints defensive line played as "expected", and the Lions Offense would have scored a lot less than 27 points.

    The Minnesota Vikings has a very good team this year and they will surely want to be present on the Playoffs and for this game, they are the team with the edge on all the sectors, having the best QB, the most experience, a superior rushing game, a better passing game or a stronger defense, and for all this, I believe in an easy win for the Vikes for at least 2 touchdowns.

    Pick: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

    • Total Posts 197

    Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

    Seattle comes to this game after an easy home win where they dominated the Rams and the 49ers went to Arizona to defeat the Cardinals, showing their good qualities on the opponent’s field.

    The Seahawks have an excelent Defense which will surely be able to stop both the 49ers’ the aerial and ground Offense. Seattle has also good options on their Offense, but they will face a very agressive Defense which has great quality, henceford, the Seahawks won’t have the commodities they had in the game against the St. Louis Rams.

    The 49ers won the game against the Cardinals in a way that everybody least expected… Meaning, they won the game thanks to their passing game. But they will use mostly their rushing game, knowing for a fact that the Seahawks D is very good against the air and they have enough manpower to shutdown their attempts to use the passing game as the main offensive weapon. San Francisco has also a lot of quality on their Defense and the 49ers D will make this game very difficult for the Seahawks Offense thanks to their agressiveness.

    Both Defenses are really good, so you should expect a lot of turnovers, os 49ers will surely rush the ball and I believe we will have a very hard fought match between these teams and a low point game for both teams, with the defenses to stand out.

    Pick: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

    • Total Posts 2391

    Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

    Pick: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

    Good luck with your selections Tommy – what does the thing at the bottom mean?

    • Total Posts 197

    Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

    Pick: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

    Good luck with your selections Tommy – what does the thing at the bottom mean?

    My pick for this game,

    Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

    , is to play the Total on the Under 40 points, which at the time I wrote the writeup, was available at Legendz and Pinnacle with 1,91 or 1,935 odds, which can be represented in the american way by -110 or -107. Please, don’t ask me to convert it to fractional odds. 8)

    • Total Posts 197

    Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

    Miami always has great problems when faces teams which have great chances to go to the playoffs or are usual presences in the playoffs, it is rare to see a Dolphins’ win, like it happened on the Week 1 and on the last season, when Miami had one good record.

    In their first game, the Miami’s QB suffered several sacks and that damaged their Offense, causing a lot of turnovers in the process. Tonight they will have to deal a strong team, both offensively and defensively, which will deal a lot of troubles both to Miami Offense and Defense.

    Indianapolis despite their win in the Week 1, had very issues on their Offense, but I expect them to improve that for this game, since they are very agressive when they have the ball and their franchise QB Peyton Manning has returned to his old form since his last injury and he can also make history on the NFL, going for his 119th victory, which would break a tie with Johnny Unitas for the franchise record.

    The Colts’ Defence showed good qualities, they do a lot of pressure on their opponents’ QB, which leads to several provoked errors. Indy will surely play by the Air, because that is their strong spot in the Offense, still they also have good players for the rushing game, but their preference is really the passing game, thanks to their star QB.

    Whe have to remember that this is a Monday Night Football game, with a lot of Motivation for both sides: the Dolphins have the home advantage and they want to do a great game, on the other hand this is an opportunity for the Colts to give a win to their franchise QB Peyton Manning and do history in the NFL, believing that they will deal with the pressure of being the road favorites for this game.

    Despite the fact the Dolphins will play at home, I believe that the Colts will manage to win this game, with their Offense to show their edge, supported by their Defense deles, which will cause a lot of difficulties to the Dolphins’ Offense. I see the Colts scoring at least 25 points and I don’t expect the Dolphins to exceed the mark of the 17 points in this exciting game.

    Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek

    • Total Posts 17716

    Who have you backed (outright) for the Superbowl, TG?

    • Total Posts 197

    No one! :twisted:

    I don’t bet on the Super Bowl, it is one of those games that I simply don’t take sides, I just want to watch it, to enjoy the game. :mrgreen:

    • Total Posts 17716

    Surely you have a view as to the likely play-off participants and who, as a result, might go on and lose to Baltimore in the final?

    • Total Posts 197

    I understand that there are some nice opportunities in the futures market, but a lot of things can happen during the regular season. We will cross that bridge when the times comes. :)

    Below are the weekly results recap:

    Week 1:

    1 – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -6,5 1,91 (-110) Bookmaker (LOSS)
    2 – Washington Redskins @ New York Giants: Under 37 1,91 (-110) Bookmaker (LOSS)
    3 – Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 1,91 (-110) Bookmaker (WIN)
    4 – Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -13,5 1,91 (-110) Bookmaker (WIN)
    5 – Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Green Bay Packers -3,5 1.90 (-111) Unibet (WIN)
    6 – San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders: San Diego Chargers -10 1.91 (-110) Bookmaker (LOSS)

    SIDES: 3-2; TOTALS 0-1. Overall: 3-3. Balance: -0,28 units

    Week 2:

    7 – New England Patriots @ New York Jets: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek (LOSS)
    8 – Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
    9 – Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
    10 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle (WIN)
    11 – Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)

    SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS 1-0. (Week 2)
    SIDES: 5-4; TOTALS 1-1. Overall: 6-5. Balance: +0,45 units

    • Total Posts 197

    For the Week 3, I’ll have 2 totals and 6 sides (In Chalk we Trust :P).

    I’ll deliver the writeups later in the weekend.


    Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

    / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

    New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond)

    / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

    San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz

    / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

    Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek

    / CHI -1 -118 (1,847) Pinnacle

    New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes)

    / NOS -6 +102 (2,02) Pinnacle

    Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS)

    / ARI -2,5 -114 (1,877) Pinnacle


    Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

    / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

    Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek

    / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

    • Total Posts 197

    Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

    This game is of extreme importance to Tennessee, one defeat against the Jets and they will be 0-3, which would a terrible start for the Titans and therefore, this game it is much more important for them than for the Jets.

    The Titans’ Defense on their last game was horrible and they manage to lost a game that was practically in the bag. In order to win this game, Tennessee D has to play at the same level they did against Pittsburgh and I believe they will do it because they have a lot of quality players for the job and will surely do the "Blitz" against the Jets QB Sanchez leading the rookie to commit mistakes.

    Tennessee has an excelent Rushing Game and that will be the main offensive weapon for this game, since their QB Kerry Collins is average, usually he doesn’t take the most correct decisions in the field and against such a good Jets Defense, the Titans will have to rely most of the time on their Ground Offense, and even by using the rush, things are not going to be easy.

    The New York Jets had a great season start and their Defense showed a lot of quality, playing much better than their Offense counterpart, and without Calvin Pace. Jets D have been completely onfire and I even don’t want to imagine how good they will be when Pace comes back. They have been superb on both sides, stoping both the opponent’s rushing game and passing game, showing a lot of agression and provoking a lot of errors on the opponents QBs.

    The Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has done good games lately, but you can be sure that one day things will not get well for his side, which is natural to expect on his first regular season and he will have a lot more troubles facing the Titans D, which we can expect to play a lot harder than the previous defenses Sanchez faced, specially with their Blitzes.

    The Jets Defense has been very strong, playing very agressive and they don’t give much chances to their opponents to score, on the other hand, the Titans also have an excelent D despite the meltdown on their last game, but knowing for a fact that Tennessee badly needs a win on this game, makes me believe that this will be a Low Point Game and therefore, the Under has a lot of value.

    Pick : Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

    • Total Posts 197

    Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

    Jacksonville had a weak start and to be honest it is not a surprise, a lot of rookies playing lately and things are going really ugly. Their Offense has been anemic and their Defense has not been much better either, which can be a very bad telling sign. It is easy to predict the Jaguars’ gameplan for this game: Rushing Game and hope that Jones-Drew will solve their offense issues. The problem with this approach is that the Jags O is so predictable, that the opponent team can very well read which Jacksonville is going to do in the game, but if we put things in perspective, it is not their opponents’ fault, the Jaguars only have the rushing game to rely on, because their Offense this year is really very bad.

    Houston has a very nice Offense, a decent QB and excelents Wide Receivers, making their O unit their best side of the team. A team which hasn’t showed yet their good Rushing Game, which can cause a lot of troubles to the Jags Defense with offensive variations when having possession of the ball. Texans D is their weakest point, but truth be told, the Jaguars Offense doesn’t scare anyone.

    With this mismatch in mind, we also have history on our side: Houston usually does well against Jacksonville, yet this is not the main fact that compells me to side with the Texans for this game, but the circumstance that Houston has the better team and they also have the home field advantage, which makes me think that Houston Texans will win this match by one or more touchdowns.

    Pick: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

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