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To Punchestown and beyond

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Viewing 15 posts - 391 through 405 (of 427 total)
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  • #1445910
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2209

    I think they are in the process of having a fantastic week as well- add to that Japan as well, who in theory has a fantastic chance. Fleeting, Constantinople and Lope Y Fernandez!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445979
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Absolutely No doubt in my mind sea of class is the best of those! Light rain forecast and a monsoon falls twice!

    #1446008
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2209

    She might well be Ham, but that form isn’t something as a stick to beat them with. That ground will have taken some getting- Magical paid the price for giving CO a good advantage rounding the bend. Very hard using energy up to make up the ground on them + then go again on that ground especially on ground like that.

    Happy my Move Swiftly saver landed 16s!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1446016
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Cracking race today jack well deserved winner and the 2nd ran a cracker, sea of class as you can see about 4f was just given a day out (rightly so) but theres absolutely no doubt in my mind shes a better horse than CO and magical, the arc run is enough to convince me she had the potential if she maintained that level coming in as a 4yo to be the best and looking at her today before the race im certain of it,

    9/1 about the king george is a cracking price

    #1446017
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    And yes the saver won that very very cosily

    #1446049
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Norfolk

    I think the fav looks pretty solid, but hes just a touch short for a race like this, the coolmore domination i think will really kick into full effect today, mount fuji winning would not surprise me in the slightest, although i couldnt back him, the one im interested in e/w is ventura rebel, beat the ward hotpot LTO with the 3rd going on to win NTO, ground may be a slight question mark, but the rain should be finished at ascot now and it wont take long to dry out, good, good to firm by the end of play tomorrow, the godolphin horse has a nice formline also although praxeology probably IMO improved for the step up on trip so im not entirely sure how strong it is. Dont like anything else

    Ventura Rebel 1 point e/w @12/1 4 places

    Hampton court:

    This is where im hoping the ground has really dried up, i always take the derby trials lightly, as usually the revolve around coolmore, horses get close to aidens FTO and it usually flatters them because aidens come
    On so much for the run and i think this is the case with fox chairman, i dont think he will cope with the more battle hardened in this, same applies to king ottokar as much as dashing willoughby enhanced the look of that race on the other hand norway let it down, i dont rate the form enough, dont like anything else bar cap francais who i think will outrun his odds and finally my selection, the 4th in france reads well IMO, drawn wide had to take a pull, although he never ended up in the worst spot tracking the eventual winner it wasnt the easiest run round, lacked the tactical speed off the bend so im hoping drawn 1 he will press on and be sitting mid div at worst, ground drying out will be perfect. Another max bet (have has a horrid record with my big bets recently, but nontheless i cant let that put me off)

    Cape of good hope 5 points @11/2

    Ribblesdale:

    No bet race for me, fleeting running her epsom race wins this easily, but how will she fare being ridden as the best horse in the race rather than to pick up the pieces? If she comes out to 2/1 ill have a bet, but not at current prices, do not like anything atall in the race, dreadful.

    Gold cup:

    1 point e/w thomas hobson @20/1 Stradi the best in the race, the race at ascot in october reads well, on soft ground though which stradi is not seen to best effect on so the TH probably flattered by it, but a repeat of that he could sneaky sneak a place! Capri the other i like.

    KGVS:

    Just a small touch on .5 point e/w antilles @33/1 5 places

    #1446261
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Not so good today, ventura rebel should have won the first IMO :negative:

    Albany:

    This is a hot race, i could EASILY back 4 in it and i might by the time i finish typing this Daahyeh 1.25 points @9/2 Won very well FTO, form has obviously been boosted by raffle
    Prize although it does always slightly concern me about marking form up over sprinting trips when the horse your basing it on won over slightly longer or slightly shorter, in this case a furlong shorter, but its hard to not back him and he will be my saver, secondly Last surprise 0.75 point e/w @8/1 4 places Won that maiden with real ease and put the fav to bed although she hasnt done much and neither has her form, but its hard to argue how smart she looked, by the right sire atm and i like the look of her, third fancy is the hannon horse Kemble 0.75 point e/w @20/1 4 places Was getting weight in her maiden victory but cant argue with the manner in which she won illusionist since ran well at ascot this week, her maiden runs form ok with the 2nd coming out and winning since. Finally my main selection on the race in terms of winning, had a nightmare run FTO, twice got bumped, one very significant, stayed on right through the line gaining ground, gave up more than she lost by with interference, the winner since finished 4th in the queen mary, winning her side of the race, the step up here looks certain to suit, drying ground will suit, by the right sire and one im fond of, especially for sprinting 2yos. 1 point e/w moon of love @33/1 4 places

    Jesus, cant remember the last time i had 4 in a race!

    Japan should win the 2nd race but im avoiding the shorties today!

    Commonwealth cup:

    1 point e/w jash @5/1 3 places Looks like a bet to nothing, ten sovereigns might very well dot up,but i cant see jash being out the top 2 and will probably be the likeliest to benefit should the fav not return at his best! TS my idea of the winner.

    Coronation:

    Happy to pile onto hermosa if she drifts (she wont) but at this price given where i am in the week ill just take a small play on 0.75 point e/w pretty pollyanna @14/1 Not a strong race, if just wonderful wins you wont hear from me again…. LOL horse killed me in both guineas!

    Two handicaps i havent a clue,

    The ballydoyle group treble tomorrow will have the bookies attention, how short could hermosa go if the first two oblige. My last day tomorrow as ill be making my yearly visit to musselburgh harness racing which for some
    Unknown reason, is on ascot week this year!

    #1446334
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2209

    Having a bit on Happen to perhaps finish best in the Coronation and pip Hermosa. Probably doesn’t happen, but big price!

    Other than that, have 4s on Japan and 9s on Pondus. The way my nice anteposts yesterday went sour i won’t get my hopes up.

    Off to Down Royal myself tonight Ham, Enjoy!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1447337
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Having a little nibble over in france today

    1 point marmelo @10/1 Not buying the opinion on lah ti dar not liking epsom, shes just not open group 1 quality IMO,shes 5/2 and marmelo who was well infront at epsom is 10/1, morgan le faye hasnt a prayer IMO, coronet probably the best of these but her reappearence wasnt exactly encouraging athough defoe has franked that somewhat since, she would be the danger but shes too short, thundering blue has the potential to win this but i think 12f in this company will stretch him, ignoring the charlton horse and the french outsider

    #1463708
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Been a quiet season for me, very quiet, been counting down the days for the jumps!

    In two minds if i want to go over to paris for sunday or not yet but regardless, ive had two massive bets, one in particular i feel is the bet of the season, generally use 1-5 points for the sake of this thread but in reality these two bets are about 20 points each lol

    First one is in the lagardere, bet of the season for me, coral going 5/1 NRNB which absolute confuses me, i do not see why hes this price

    Victor ludorum is the 6/4 fav? And why? Where is the form for him to be this short? Won a conditions race very easily, form looks shocking as a whole, worst fav of the weekend even if he wins, grounds also a big ?

    Ecrivain the second fav and should be shorter than the fav, his he won the group 3 a shade cosily and the stable jockey was on him instead of the more experiences 2nd, hes the main danger.

    Helter skelter and kenway make 0 appeal to me whatsoever

    Alson, is a good e/w bet in the race, form ties in with earthlight and i think hes way overpriced, 12/1 about and if there werr 8 in the tace id be having a few quid on him

    The bet is Armory Pinatubo is the standout of the season, his form is stacking up and hes improved as the season went on, taking him out of the national stakes armory would have been a decent winner of a top race, hes every right to be 6/4 for this on form, step upto a mile will suit, the ground is a slight worry, his worst performance came on yielding, but i believe he will be good enough to cope, the stamina test will suit though. held in high regard at ballydoyle, running 110 i cant see him being beaten in this, think hes a certainty, hes an e/w price but im all out on the win @ 5/1 NRNB

    5 points armory @5/1

    Second bet of the week is magical to place in the arc (12-16/1) and magical without enable (6/1) 5 points magical w/o enable @6/1 2.5 poonts magical e/w @16/1

    Good luck

    #1463754
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16845

    Good to see the thread back Ham.

    Good luck for the coming months.

    #1463841
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2741

    Two good bets ham, best of luck with both of them :good:

    #1463947
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Why did ryan let frankie do that :unsure:

    #1473400
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2399

    Ahh what a weekend of racing coming up, was hoping to make it to santa anita this year but wasnt to be, spent so little time betting in the flat season that i actually ended up going to alot more meetings, i hate having really big bets on and watching at track lol

    Breeders cup as i said in the thread i have a few there,

    2 points e/w WIthout parole @16/1 e/w Seen this the other week but was absolutely certain that bricks & mortar would run here which would surely be a negative towards his chances, but stepping a horse up in trip (a horse in unbelievable form) and leaving WP in this caught my eye, he must be absolutely flying at home.

    3 points british idium @4/1 In theeeee fillies dirt mile, dont like the fav in the race, yes she won here but that was a 3 runner race and i do not like inexperienced horses on a track like this in a bigger field, the asmusson horse the danger, but im expecting to collect here

    5 points bricks & mortar @2/1 In the turf, similar reasons to WP, its telling there sending him here and i doubt its purely because WP is flying, both must be ticking all the boxes at home, question over the trip, will be a messy race, if he gets the trip he wins, will finish first or last IMO

    5 points Midnight bisou @5/4 In the distaff, shes not a price, but i find it hard not to bet anything when i dont see them as a sure thing regardless of price

    Theyll be more bets but only small 10 and 20 quid bets nothing worth writing up, fancied alpine star to rock up bit albignia takes the run, hope she wins but i quite like Abscond @20/1, Band practice @20/1 In the juve turf sprint another i thinks over priced, will have a little on them

    Vertem futurity, what is going on with this race??? Kinross backed into 6/4 fav? Really? Was electric FTO and 2nd has bolted up since and so has the obrien horse but thats less important, the form is still very very young to have a horse like him fav in this, not to mention beckett was having a very good spell at the time, Mogul Is the other i didnt like 9/4 though is a hell of a price and i would definitely consider him if he drifts even more, the one i cant get away from is Innisfree Very, very little between him and mogul and hes 3 times the price, 2 points e/w innisfree @7/1 Prob better backing him tomorrow but wont have time to write this up, very, very strange race from a price perspective, ill be laying that fav all the way up to 2/1

    Samcro back tomorrow, have to lay him also at those odds, reputation gets you a price like that, reality gets you beat, id have him a more 1/2 shot personally, the fences themselves will be his biggest danger, he has one of my favourite jockeys on board and i hope giggy keep giving him these rides, hes a top top rider.

    Coco beach @5/2
    Looks a good thing in the wkd hurdle, was a very good run FTO

    #1473401
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2209

    Gl Ham, you’re confident with Coco Beach, personally think it’s a very tricky affair!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

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