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Timeform, Official Handicapper or Racing Post ratings.
There is a three horse race, your life depends on finding the winner and the only information you have is the name of the horse that each of the above has selected, AND THEY’VE EACH GONE FOR A DIFFERENT BEAST!
You must place the bet, it wins and you live, it loses and you are history. Whose rating would you follow?
For me,
Timeform,
yesterday, today and tomorrow.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Even on such a friendly and chummy forum, with many of the threads only there for the fun of it, I find it hard to retreat from my obsession with detail. Never mind somebody else delivering a fatal blow, I would probably rather shoot myself if I was not allowed to use my own judgement but was forced to rely on others. However:
I like the idea that you have not said that each of them has just given a rating to the horses, but that they have selected one of them to win the race. That leaves open the possibility that they will be using their judgement about the race conditions, and their knowledge of each horse, to make their call.
Since the official handicappers seldom have a need to predict the future they do not have the experience necessary for me to rely on them. There is a world of difference between understanding the past and predicting the future! RP Ratings like to “fine tune” their ratings in the 24 hours before a big race, but ultimately they have to choose a number (a rating) to make a selection. That is why the Racing Post employs lots of other people to gloss over the RP ratings and use their own judgement. Timeform keep the numbers firm but adjust their advice in the light of conditions; their various publications indicate a good level of knowledge of the horses and race conditions and a good level of analytical skill; and they have a lot of experience of predicting the future outcome of horse races. So, I would go for Timeform. Even if I had to rely only on the ratings it would still be Timeform.
In a 3 horse race Timeform will still have 2 of them joint top rated and suggest a saver on the 3rd horse who will be 2nd top rated anyway thereby covering all 3 horses! I’ve heard that some folk actually pay for that advice too!
‘Racing Post’ everytime for me,purely as a medium to study form!
They all frequently rubbish a horse’s chances only to see it hack up at double figure odds. They are no better informed than the majority of us. I use timeform but never regard it as more than a rough guide.
Official handicap marks are a reaosnable guide in non-handicaps and it’s surprising how the best rated can be over priced on occasion.
In handicaps the runners are rather convenient numbered in ability order! There’s a method I tell newcomers as a way of losing less, just back number 1 in handicaps. In general, particularly in lower grade races, the win percentage declines as you work down the weights.
All RPR or Timeform will do is offer a different interpretation of the same basic data.
Rob
In a 3 horse race Timeform will still have 2 of them joint top rated and suggest a saver on the 3rd horse who will be 2nd top rated anyway thereby covering all 3 horses! I’ve heard that some folk actually pay for that advice too!
‘Racing Post’ everytime for me,purely as a medium to study form!
Timeform don’t suggest "saver"s Gord, only idiots do that.
They don’t tell you who to back either (unless subscribing to the "Jury" service). Race Passes subscribers use it as a form book, in exactly the same way as others use the Racing Post, only – more detailed and accurate information.However, if it came down to life and death on ratings alone… Official handicappers ratings don’t take in to account proggressive horses and Timeform are more accurate than Racing Post ratings.
Value Is EverythingMy choice would be Timeform. Not just for their ratings but for their symbols along side their ratings which can be just as informative.
Currently, Timeform top rated score at 28% and Racing Post Ratings and Postmark both score at 30%. Only the "finely" tuned Postmark is making a profit (a very tiny one). BHA make no predictions and only have a most likely in stakes races. Handicaps prove day after day that such ratings simply do not work.
Using any such method that leads to 70+% losers, year after year after year, is madness.
IMHO Formcast (Nigel Taylor) of the Daily Mail is vastly superior to all three and has been for decades….
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Using any such method that leads to 70+% losers, year after year after year, is madness.
Agreed Robert, "top rated" tells the punter only a fraction of what he/she needs. It should NOT be seen as the "tip". But the information needed is in the write up. If punters are good at evaluating form – then Timeform will enable the punter to show a profit. However, nobody should expect to make a profit straight away. It takes time and experience to know how to use it successfully. Some (particularly those who don’t understand value) will never show a proft – whichever way they choose to study, with or without Timeform.
Value Is EverythingIf by ‘selected’ Corm means top-rated, then this is not an ‘opinion’ question.
A reasonable sample size of, say, 20,000 races (approx 3 flat seasons) with a running loss figure will show precisely who is the best.
Mike
Using any such method that leads to 70+% losers, year after year after year, is madness.
Agreed Robert, "top rated" tells the punter only a fraction of what he/she needs. It should NOT be seen as the "tip". But the information needed is in the write up. If punters are good at evaluating form – then Timeform will enable the punter to show a profit. However, nobody should expect to make a profit straight away. It takes time and experience to know how to use it successfully. Some (particularly those who don’t understand value) will never show a proft – whichever way they choose to study, with or without Timeform.
Ginger,
Did you read the original question?Yes, I did read the original question Robert, thank you very much. But it appeared from your post…
Using any such method that leads to 70+% losers,
year after year after year, is madness
.
… that you did not.
The question said:
"There is a three horse race, your life depends on finding the winner and the only information you have is the name of the horse that each of the above has selected, AND THEY’VE EACH GONE FOR A DIFFERENT BEAST!You must place the bet, it wins and you live, it loses and you are history. Whose rating would you follow"?
It was your line I was responding to Robert, not the original post. Your line had absolutely nothing to do with David’s question. The original question was not suggesting a method used
"year after year after year"
…
But thought I’d give you the courtesy of responding to it anyway.
Patronising XXX!
Value Is Everything
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