January 14, 2020 at 02:14 #1479744
One of the best Handicap Chases of the season, and usual strong entry…..
I had two in mind for this long term, but neither make it, so starting from scratch for me, so no rush.
Goes without saying though that a few jump out.
Chef Des Obeaux – Higher profile now, for his run in The Paddy Power, for which he was a big price. Up a pound for that run, and he should be thereabouts again 10’s
Total Recall – Hasn’t done that much since his victory at The Dublin Racing Festival two years back, but he’s shown a few times that the ability is still there. Ran a strange race in The Irish National, but looking at the way he ran, I reckon they thought he had more to offer, it was a very confident ride. He fell away, but after a quiet spin over hurdles this term, he comes here off a very nice mark, and he’ll have no ground concerns. Big price 25’s
Discorama – It might pay to wait until Cheltenham for him, but despite a few low key performances, not least in The Troytown, there’s just the suspicion that it will click one of these days 25’s
Ex Patriot – Very likeable type, who’ll come here off the back of a respectable effort at Cheltenham. He’s clearly got a proper Handicap in him, and though there’s a good chance his long term target is at Cheltenham, (that last run looked like a “sighter”), there’s no reason he can’t take a strong hand here. Has course form 14’s
Castlebrook – A little inexperienced, but consistent enough, and he’s kept some very nice company. This step into Handicap Company looks like the logical step 16’s
Livelovelaugh – Hardly the most consistent, but his midfield finish in The Paddy Power wouldn’t bother me too much, and I’m more interested in his run at Aintree, and the fact he’s coming here off of 143 gives him plenty of appeal 40’s
Cabaret Queen – Looked a serious horse in The Munster National, before being too bad to be true at Newbury. Fell in The Paddy Power, when every chance, and difficult to put a line through 10’s
Out Sam – Very hard horse to catch right. Ran well enough off of 140 in this last year, but not so good two years back, off of 131. Maybe worth putting a line through that one though, as Elliot hadn’t had him that long. He’s since won a Cork National, and after a few lesser efforts, he ran a big race at Cheltenham in The Cross Country off 140. Back down to a mark of 134 here after that, and if on a “going day”, I think he’s got it in him to spring a surprise. He could also pull himself up after a circuit, but I’m liking that price. 25’s
There’s obviously loads more of interest in there, not least Prince of Scars and
Neverushacon, but I’ll leave it at that for now.
This is a race where I like an early play.
Total Recall really appeals at 25’s, and while stablemate Livelovelaugh looks a crazy price, I’ll go with Out Sam as well at the same price.
Both 25’sJanuary 14, 2020 at 10:17 #1479757
The three that stand out to me at first look are Acapella Bourgeois, Smoking Gun and Castlebrook.
Acapella Bourgeois ran a very good race last time out after having a hurdle prep. Realistically he wasn’t beating ABP barring an accident. Even though i don’t think he’s especially well handicapped off 152, he’s the type of horse with a run style that could still win off it. Go out in front and catch me. He’ll probably not get a free lead here but i still think heavy ground and 3 miles he could go close.
Castlebrook looked to me vs Getabird like he’s still a bit clueless which is a massive worry for this. Jumped well last time when clearly outclassed. For a horse that’s only raced 8 times he’ll take that race well i suspect and while he’s not a Faugheen he’s well handicapped off 143 i’d guess. Wants soft going as he’s massive i can only presume last year was basically written off. His only start last year he was 4th, looks disappointing, but he was literally stopped in running when a horse fell + unseated. He still managed to run on after that but was never catching them. Experience a big negative, but juice in the price for me and i can see him being popular.
Smoking Gun- Proper stayer too, was lucky last time to win as there was an incident which stopped the other two, but he’d still have gone close or just have been beaten by Early Doors and there’s no shame in that. I think he’ll making a nice staying chaser and his form is good throughout.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!January 14, 2020 at 18:28 #1479789
Good luck Jack, if you go with Acapella.
Always liked him, and he was the last one I left out of the first post.January 14, 2020 at 18:32 #1479791
Had a top up win only on Out Sam at 33’s.January 16, 2020 at 15:16 #1479918
Jack, Smoking Gun, and in particular, Castlebrook, both getting bet, just to let you know in case price goes.
Castlebrook would only be a saver for me st the moment, if my first pair went, but I’m tempted to do that at 16’s just now.January 16, 2020 at 15:34 #1479920
Cheers VTC, probably going to miss the prices, but given its a week away i might hold off
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!January 16, 2020 at 20:15 #1479950AutumnalParticipant
- Total Posts 240
I have a shortlist of 3.
Acapella Bourgeois 16/1
Minella Fair 25/1
I would be happy with 2 in this, but not 3, so I will wait for now.January 17, 2020 at 15:51 #1480006All JeffParticipant
- Total Posts 121
I’ll play early in this one.
Chef Des Obeaux is quite short for a competitive race like this, but I think he may shorten again, so I’ll take 8-1 just now.
I also think that Solomn Grundy is interesting, and 25-1 looks a great ew price, especially as I can get 5 places at that price.January 19, 2020 at 10:54 #1480232
Castlebrook out for the season hope nobody took the early prices. Jane Mangan has confirmed yesterday.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!January 19, 2020 at 20:07 #1480269
Shame that Jack, thought he’d run a big race.
Acapella the one for money now. I’m definitely not one for following the money, but I think I might just make him the saver at 14’s.January 20, 2020 at 01:13 #1480279BigGParticipant
- Total Posts 6236
I fancied Borice for the Ladbroke, but he ran a disappointing race.
Perhaps after 4 months off he needed the race. He had wind surgery in August and there
seems to be a school of thought that horses benefit from the 2nd run after that procedure.
I don’t know about that either, but he had looked like a very progressive horse in his 3
wins prior to the ladbroke and if there are excuses for him at Newbury then I think the
12/1 on offer now is quite appealing.
I’m also backing another who needs excuses for his last couple of runs. Tower Bridge ran
2nd, albeit a well beaten 2nd, to A Plus Tard in the Close brothers at the Festival last year.
That form hasn’t been done any harm with that one putting Chacun Pour Soi firmly in his place
recently at Leopardstown. He came back out this season with a running on 4th over probably a
slightly inadequate trip at at Naas. He maybe was a tad unlucky next time out when quite
fancied (7/1) in the Troytown where he had to dodge horses falling at successive fences mid
race and didn’t travel well after that. No real excuses for him last time out in the Paddy
Power Chase where he jumped poorly and had JJ (Slevin) doing his rodeo rider impersonation
(leaning back with one arm in the air) at a couple of fences. Again for a very valuable h’cap
there was a fair bit of money for him (8/1). He will need to clean up his act a bit if he’s to
put in a good round here, but he’s obviously well thought of and the couple of pounds he’s
dropped for those 2 races won’t do his chances any harm. I think 25/1 will look big on the
day if he traps here. If the money comes again he could go off in single figures.
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