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THM on the Flat 2012

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 28 total)
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  • #21409
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5552

    So You Think must have a huge chance in the Dubai World Cup this evening. His form from last summer with Workforce would make him very hard to beat and I think he’ll be ready to rock today, even though AOB often leaves something to work on. The good runs of daddy Long Legs and Wrote bode well, and the Colm O’Donoghue’s post race quote leads one to believe every horse there is ready to run for their lives: "We’re here to win". 2/1 on So You Think is just too big imo.

    Elsewhere, I’m really looking forward to the clash of Cirrus Des Aigles and St Nicholas Abbey, while I’ll be keeping an eye on the other Sole Power and Await the Dawn as well. There were many last year who believed Await The Dawn was Ballydoyle’s best older horse, if that’s the case he’s a big price at 10/1 :shock:

    €20 win So You Think @ 2/1 (Paddy Power)

    – €20

    #398945
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    So You Think disappointing and not for the first time, looked really one paced. Joseph said the surface did not suit. I’m amazed they persist with the tactics of racing handy and going for home quite early, given that his best performance came when Seamie Heffernan held on to him for as long as he could before the horse showed a turn of foot which has been missing in all his other races for Ballydoyle.

    Thankfully the Cirrus Des Aigles – St Nicholas Abbey duel lived up to my expectations in what was undoubtedly the race of the day.

    #401656
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Fury went close at Doncaster last time out and is only a pound higher in the weights now. The cut in the ground should help his cause and he should once again go close.

    Fury
    €10 e/w @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4, 1-2-3-4)

    – €40

    #401790
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5552

    Fury ran a good race in second but he may well have won with a better ride.

    + €25

    – €15

    All eyes were on Nephrite and Excelebration at the Curragh today. The former was disappointing, having travelled well he emptied rapidly in the final furlong. He looked a non stayer to me but it could well be that he was only half cooked. A combination of both possibly. Excelebration did what was expected of him with ease. All the top mile races will surely be on his agenda this year.

    #402448
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5552

    Unaccompanied should be odds on tomorrow at Navan imo. She handles cut in the ground and bypassed Punchestown to come here instead. She was very impressive on the flat at the Curragh last year and I think she’ll have too much class for her opposition tomorrow.

    5.35 Navan
    Unaccompanied
    €20 win @ 5/4 (Boylesports)

    – €35

    #402531
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Good performance from Unaccompanied. For a moment turning in I thought she was in trouble but Pat Smullen always looked confident and she could be one to follow over the coming months.

    + €45

    + €10

    #403006
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5552

    I’ve posted on the 1000 Guineas thread about Jim Bolger’s recent record in the Guineas at Newmarket and it’s quite exceptional. Bolger’s horses have been fitter than most for Newmarket in recent years and that counts for a lot this early in the season. His Alla Speranza is proven on soft ground and I think she could make her odds of 66/1 look silly.

    1000 Guineas
    Alla Speranza
    €5 e/w @ 66/1 (Boylesports)

    €0

    #403026
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Fury is worth another chance in the first at Newmarket tomorrow. He bumped into a well handicapped horse last time and I thought may have won with a better ride. He’s gone up in the weights since but he’ll handle the ground and will be fitter than most ahving had two runs already this season.

    Newmarket 2.00
    Fury
    €10 e/w @ 5/1 (Boylesports)

    – €20

    #403029
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Fury is worth another chance in the first at Newmarket tomorrow. He bumped into a well handicapped horse last time and I thought may have won with a better ride. He’s gone up in the weights since but he’ll handle the ground and will be fitter than most ahving had two runs already this season.

    Newmarket 2.00
    Fury
    €10 e/w @ 5/1 (Boylesports)

    – €20

    #403141
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Fury really has been consistent this term, although he didn’t travel today as he can.

    + €22.50

    + €2.50

    #403143
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    William Hill are bizarrely pricing up Born To Sea as follows:

    To win 10/1
    2 place insurebet 9/1
    3 place insurebet 9/1 :shock:

    John Oxx has always mainatained he has plenty of his brother’s ability and his strike rate in England is exceptional. The way he went about his debut win was really eye catching although he didn’t beat much. The mere fact that he started off in a Listed race could tell its own story.

    2000 Guineas
    3 Place Insurebet (William Hill)
    Born To Sea

    €10 win @ 9/1

    – €7.50

    #403150
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    I’ve always maintained that MAYBE was the Ballydoyle 3yo to follow this year. Camelot’s win there shows the well-being of the Ballydoyle horses, although Power ran a poor race for whatever reason. Maybe looked like a superstar last season and I much preferred her at similar odds to Camelot. Can she make it a memorable double for all at Ballydoyle?

    1000 Guineas
    Maybe
    €20 win @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    – €27.50

    #403972
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    This is not a flat bet but Knockara Beau must have a huge chance in the first at Haydock. I thought connections missed a trick bypassing the Pertemps at this year’s festival considering he was well weighted compared to 2011 when he was 4th. They instead ran him in the Gold Cup where he was a very respectable 6th. Missed the 16/1 but 14/1 is still a very generous price imo.

    2.00 Haydock
    Knockara Beau
    €5 e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    – €37.50

    #403989
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Had a small bet on Vow there at Lingfield an I can say is WOW! She looked green as grass and may not get away with that at Epsom but she should improve for that experience. Ladbrokes going 14/1, I’ll have some of that please :twisted:

    Epsom Oaks
    Vow
    €10 e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

    – €57.50

    #404028
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    There’s two horses I’ve had in mind as Galway Plate contenders for a while now, and they go head to head over hurdles tomorrow in Killarney. Realt Dubh and Truckers Delight have proven to be two of my biggest money spinners in recent seasons, with Truckers Delight in particular helping me keep my head above water last summer, when advised at 25/1 at Punchestown and 5/1 at Galway. There’s only 5 lbs between them over hurdles and at those weights I’d call Realt Dubh an absolute banker. His latest run was top class and there’s nothing else in the field with that sort of form. It’s Truckers Delight’s first run of the season and I’ve no doubt the Galway Plate is his ultimate aim. Realt Dubh will struggle to give him 21 lbs there :wink:

    3.25 Killarney Sunday
    Realt Dubh
    €40 win @ 5/2

    – €97.50

    Supposed to be a flat thread I know! :roll:

    #404034
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Alla Speranza should find tomorrow’s Guineas trial easier going than the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last week. She was only run out of the places in the closing stages there, and the benefit of a run should bring her on. Jim Bolger is a master at turnign out horses quickly after a run, hopefully he’ll do the trick again tomorrow.

    3.15 Leopardstown
    Alla Speranza
    €10 e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)

    – €117.50

    #404066
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    Disappointing run from All Speranza there at Leopardstown, found nothing once she came off the bridle. The winner looked smart and will have a good chance at the Curragh.

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