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Thanks fellas, need to make the most of Punchestown as my summer bets will probably be few and far between
Two bets for tomorrow so far and I’ve missed the boat a little bit with both in terms of prices. The two horses in question were both in my Cheltenham squad: Ned Buntline and Felix Yonger. I’ve wrote an article for David which should be up tomorrow, but in short here is my reasoning:
Ned Buntline
‘s first taste of handicap action was at Cheltenham and for a horse who runs quite keenly, everything actually seemed to happen quite fast for him. I think he’s sure to have learned plenty for that and off just a 2 lb higher mark he can go one better here.
I’m on the edge of a cliff with
Felix Yonger
. I think he had valid excuses for defeats over the winter but I’m a bit baffled by his performance in the JLT. It definitely wasn’t the trip that beat him because he never seemed to be travelling and he would have been beaten even further if it had been over two, such was his sluggishness. His autumn form reads as good as anything and on the basis that Cheltenham was too bad to be true I’ll jump from the cliff in the hope that my parachute is not merely a knapsack.
Punchestown 4.15
Ned Buntline
€15 e/w @ 5/1 (B365)Punchestown 6.40
Felix Yonger
€15 e/w @ 6/1 (B365)€5 e/w double the pair (B365)
+ €799.59
Tommy, old buddy, old pal, you couldn’t lend us a tenner could ya?…..
Well done mate.
Thanks Nathan, sorry but I only deal in $500 dollar bills these days
Punchestown 7.45
Tell Us More
€33 win @ 10/11 (B365)Punchestown 5.30
Quevega
€20 win & 1/1 (PP)€20 double the above pair @ 10/11 & 10/11 (B365)
+ €726.59
Joined you with
Tell Us More
Tommy. I was quite surprised with even money, I thought he’d be a lot shorter.
I thought so too Boz, not a bad bumper though and I suppose the bookies want to take him on given the ground. Not sire but I think this could be the race Turnandgo won last year? Hopefully Tell Us More will do a similar job!
Tell Us More
a non runner so €33 returned and the double means I just have a bigger Quevega single.
I loved the efficiency of Vautour at Cheltnham where he got me off to a flyer but I’ve gone against him at odds of 1/3 tomorrow. The horse I have sided with is Noel Meade’s
Apache Stronghold
, who was smashed by Lieutenant Colonel at Fairyhouse last time out. However, the winning distances don’t tell the whole story, as Apache Stronghold was having his first run after a setback which forced him to miss engagement over Christmas and Cheltenham. The betting suggested he’d need the run and that’s the way he ran: travelled well to a point before looking like he blew up at the business end. He has previously looked very impressive in winning a Grade 2 at Navan, and ran well at this meeting a year ago. I think 16/1 underestimates his chance.
Punchestown 6.05 (tomorrow)
Apache Stronghold
€10 e/w @ 16/1+ €739.59
Punchestown 6.20 (tomorrow)
Balnaslow, €10 e/w @ 7/1 (PP)
Sizing Gold, €10 e/w @ 8/1 (B365)+ €699.59
I loved the efficiency of Vautour at Cheltnham where he got me off to a flyer but I’ve gone against him at odds of 1/3 tomorrow. The horse I have sided with is Noel Meade’s
Apache Stronghold
, who was smashed by Lieutenant Colonel at Fairyhouse last time out. However, the winning distances don’t tell the whole story, as Apache Stronghold was having his first run after a setback which forced him to miss engagement over Christmas and Cheltenham. The betting suggested he’d need the run and that’s the way he ran: travelled well to a point before looking like he blew up at the business end. He has previously looked very impressive in winning a Grade 2 at Navan, and ran well at this meeting a year ago. I think 16/1 underestimates his chance.
Punchestown 6.05 (tomorrow)
Apache Stronghold
€10 e/w @ 16/125/1 now
I loved the efficiency of Vautour at Cheltnham where he got me off to a flyer but I’ve gone against him at odds of 1/3 tomorrow. The horse I have sided with is Noel Meade’s
Apache Stronghold
, who was smashed by Lieutenant Colonel at Fairyhouse last time out. However, the winning distances don’t tell the whole story, as Apache Stronghold was having his first run after a setback which forced him to miss engagement over Christmas and Cheltenham. The betting suggested he’d need the run and that’s the way he ran: travelled well to a point before looking like he blew up at the business end. He has previously looked very impressive in winning a Grade 2 at Navan, and ran well at this meeting a year ago. I think 16/1 underestimates his chance.
Punchestown 6.05 (tomorrow)
Apache Stronghold
€10 e/w @ 16/125/1 now
Wait, it gets better, we’re down to four runners
With the money returned from Ned Buntline and the Arctic Fire bet, p/l now + €693.35
P/l
Tomorrow’s card looks the poor relation of the week and the only horse I’ll have a bet on isUn Temps Pour Tout
in the 5.30, a 2m 4f handicap hurdle. He has to shoulder top weight, but the way he brushed aside Cole Harden last time out is hard to forget. That horse is now rated 150 (the same rating as Un Temps Pour Tout) so I’m hopeful that there’s more to come from David Pipe’s animal. The only concern I have is the ground, as he’s done almost all his racing on ground with plenty of cut, but he beat Dell Arca on good to soft in France last year so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. At 12/1 he’s worth an e/w poke on a tough betting card.
Punchestown 5.30
Un Temps Pour Tout
€10 e/w @ 12/1 (PP)+ €649.35
I’ve had a yoyo or 2 on me old mucker Micky D, Tommy.
Thought it would be rude not to at 25’s.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I’ve had a yoyo or 2 on me old mucker Micky D, Tommy.
Thought it would be rude not to at 25’s.25/1 a very fair price Nathan, surprised Ruby didn’t pick him! Ger Fox is a jockey in demand these days and great value for the 7 lb claim so hopefully he’ll run well for you.
The Game Changer
who again ran a good race when placing at Killarney. The race wasn’t on At The Races so I have yet to see it but sounds like he ran right up to scratch.
Tomorrow I’m interested in
Badgerfort
who runs in the opening maiden hurdle over 2m 4f. Some of you may remember I was keen on him when he won his bumper last time out at Cork. He won well that day but he’ll have more on his plate tomorrow, with Martello Tower setting a high standard. I’ll see what sort of price he opens before deciding if I’m going to have a bet.
No bet on Badgerfort as I was hoping for a better price than 2/1. There seems to be a lot of confidence behind Martello Tower and given Badgerfort’s runs down the field in maiden hurdles I’m going to sit this out.
No bet on Badgerfort as I was hoping for a better price than 2/1. There seems to be a lot of confidence behind Martello Tower and given Badgerfort’s runs down the field in maiden hurdles I’m going to sit this out.
Glad I left Badgerfort alone, he ran well in second behind Martello Tower. He was sloppy at the third last when mounting a challenge and another slow jump at the last handed the initiative to the favourite. There were 18 lengths back to the third horse, Badgerfort shouldn’t have much trouble winning an ordinary maiden hurdle.
I’ve gone for a first and last race double today at Killarney. In the first race I’m very surprised at how short You Must Know Me is in the betting. He’s never been a horse to trust for me and while he often runs well in good races without winning I think that makes him an ideal horse to take on at short odds. He’s 4/9 with some bookies which I wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole. Second favourite
Sammy Black
is a far more likable, if limited, sort, who comes here in good form. He looks the type to take to fences and at 7/2 with Boylesports he forms the first leg of the double. In the last race I’m remaining loyal to
Arctic Fire
, who won as he liked over hurdles at Punchestown recently. He should like the ground and should be able to take advantage of the conditions of the race. He is 4/6 with Boyles so the double pays a tasty 13/2.
Killarney 5.15, Sammy Black @ 7/2
Killarney 8.25, Arctic Fire @ 4/6
€10 double with Boyles+ €679.35
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