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Right, tomorrow is the first of October and that means that the proper jumpers will begin to return, slowly but surely. To begin I will list all open NH ante-post bets:
Arkle Trophy 2014
Defy Logic
€7.50 e/w @ 20/1 (BV)Champion Hurdle 2014
Annie Power
€5 e/w @ 25/1 (BV)Jewson 2014
Un Atout
€15 e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)Gold Cup 2014
Sir Des Champs
€10 e/w @ 12/1 (Private bet)- €55[/color:3f6dfrj1]
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I’ve been looking at hurdlers from last season for the past few weeks in an attempt to compile a list of novice chasers who will hopefully prove to be up to competing in the best races. All ten horses on the list are Irish, and are mostly the more obvious ones. I’d like to think more than a few of these will be competing at Prestbury Park in March.
Ballycasey
There was an unreal amount of hype about this horse before Cheltenham last year, half the country seemed to have heard he was working well with this and cantering alongside that. As it happened, he was a non runner at Cheltenham before disappointing when hot favorite at Punchestown. He’s not one I’d be backing for Cheltenham at this stage as he’s got something to prove for me but he should prove capable of reigniting the hype machine at some stage and could yet be a very good horse.
Bright New Dawn
I fell in love with this horse when I saw him run behind Champagne Fever at Leopardstown. I’m no expert on horse conformation but to me he looked an absolute picture. But what really appealed to me about him was his attitude: he looked very willing in his chase behind the winner that day and I marked them both down as real fighters. He has the scope to go on to better things over fences and I think he’s a Grade 1 horse. This horse is Cheltenham material imo.
Champagne Fever
I half expected this horse to go straight over fences last season, but he showed huge ability to fend off the speedier animals in the Supreme. You would think he’d be better over further than two miles, but the way he won the Supreme the Arkle might be right up his street. He will surely be a big player in March, whatever race he runs in.
Defy Logic
This is a horse of huge ability but his temperament is somewhat flawed. He ran a great race at Navan behind Annie Power, with some useful sorts such as Don Cossack and Moscow Mannon well behind. He was caught by Mala Beach on his last start but I thought he received a poor ride and was much the best horse in the race. Back over two miles I think he’ll be hard to beat provided he jumps well. If he learns to drop the bit he could be a monster.
Felix Yonger
Felix Yonger ran a top race behind Simonsig in the 202 Neptune, coming home well clear of the hampered Monksland. He obviously had his problems last season as he didn’t run until a Punchestown beginners’ chase in May, thus he maintains his novice status for this campaign. That day he was efficient rather than electric against White Star Line, but he gave him 3 lbs that day and given that horse’s win in the Kerry National the form doesn’t look too shabby at any rate.
Monksland
Monksland stayed hurling last season,only running three times but winning on two of those occasions. He thumped Lyreen Legend as a novice hurdler and if he comes back well from injury he’ll be a player in all the big novice chases in Ireland – that is, if chasing is even the plan. Noel Meade’s Cheltenham record is a negative in terms of the Festival, and this combined with question marks about injury, trip and whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing mean I couldn’t recommend anyone back him at this stage.
Rule The World
I’ve been waiting to hear news on this horse since Punchestown, and I was recently told that he’s back in training, so hopefully this is true. When I think RSA Chase I think Rule The World. There’ll doubtless be who will run where with all the Giggy runners but I honestly think he should be at the head of the RSA betting. I find it strange he’s not even quoted. I think he has huge potential and he’s in the right hands.
Some Tikket
This is a bit of a dark one, a horse who might be under the radar for those across the Irish Sea. He ran out first time out at Punchestown, before winning his bumper and maiden hurdle impressively, both at Navan. He then disappointed at Fairyhouse. I think he could be useful kept to left hand tracks – if you forget his two runs right handed he falls into the ‘cold be anything’ category. His owner is on the other forum and from what he says they think he’s pretty useful. He’s been moved to Dessie Hughes from Dermot Weld for the coming season.
Un Atout
Three parts brother to the mighty Sir Des Champs, he’s another who looks a real chaser. Like most of these he looks versatile trip wise: hopefully he’ll go down the two and a half mile route when it matters. He’ll most likely start off in a two mile chase at a galloping track and step up in class from there. It wouldn’t surprise if he goes the same route as his close relation and gets the softly softly approach before the festival.
Un De Sceaux
I’m not sure if this one goes chasing, but whatever he does he’s one to keep an eye on. He’s a bit like Defy Logic in his running style: if he learns to settle he could be very very good. If he stays hurdling, he’s a dark horse for the Champion Hurdle.
Good Luck Tommy,lets hope we have a cracking season ahead of us with so many exciting National hunt horses to follow,apart from
My Tent or yours
I’m really excited about
Shutthefrontdoor
going Chasing and winning the RSA.
Yes hopefully we can turn a profit again Gord, regardless of bets I’m sure it will be another brilliant season – it always is!
Do you see Rule The World as a challenger to Shutthefrontdoor in the RSA?
Yes hopefully we can turn a profit again Gord, regardless of bets I’m sure it will be another brilliant season – it always is!
Do you see Rule The World as a challenger to Shutthefrontdoor in the RSA?
They’re my 2 against the field Tommy,
Un atout
has to go the Jewson route and both Gigginstown horses look tailor-made for these races as their respective form is top class imo.
Good to know Gord, in recent years we’ve generally been on the same page with novice chasers, particularly where Giginstown are concerned. Bright New Dawn is the fly in the Giggy ointment, a talented fly at that! I’ve backed the last three RSA runners up at 40/1, 20/1 and 16/1 so hopefully it will be a case of 4th time lucky
Good to know Gord, in recent years we’ve generally been on the same page with novice chasers, particularly where Giginstown are concerned. Bright New Dawn is the fly in the Giggy ointment, a talented fly at that! I’ve backed the last three RSA runners up at 40/1, 20/1 and 16/1 so hopefully it will be a case of 4th time lucky
He’s no fly in my ointment Tommy, he is
the one
All the best with thread mate, exciting times ahead.Hopefully we’ll get 6/4 about him winning a beginners’ somewhere Boz
I fell in love that faithful day at Leopardstown
The thing that would worry me about backing him for Cheltenham currently is which race does he go for? I think Un Atout will go Jewson and Rule The World RSA. Unless Un Atout goes to the Arkle I’m not sure where Bright New Dawn fits. I’d be half afraid he’ll go to the Powers Gold Cup instead.This
Bright New Dawn
related to both ‘War of attrition’ and ‘Boston Bob’ looks like he’d be the Gigginstown Arkle horse this year to me,not that 2m will be his best trip but like the 2006 Gold Cup winner he too ran in the Arkle the year before he hit the big time,I of course had backed him for the RSA that year!!
It’s always a headache trying to solve the Gigginstown puzzle pre-festival, let alone at this stage of the year! My only concern would be that Michael O’Leary starts trying to fit square shaped pegs through a round shaped hole as, through the simplicity of making predictions in the autumn,
Un Atout
looks the Jewson horse,
Bright New Dawn
is every bit the staying chaser that’ll eat up the RSA trip, leaving, for me at least,
Rule The World
to be the odd one out
Oi oi oi it’s already started without a race being run. Got to love the Gigginstown machine for throwing up talking points Spot on Boz, unfortunately for us the three pegs in question look very versatile! For me, discussion like this means that
it has begun
Baily Green
Quito De La Roque
Realt Dubh
Roi Du Mee
Rubi Light
Sizing EuropeAll entered for Gowran this Saturday.
If I can get 4/1 on
Teelin Star
in the next at Sligo I’ll have a tenner on him. He had a big reputation but has proven somewhat disappointing, falling and pulling up on both chase starts. However, he won his bumper well and given the paucity of the opposition I think it’s worth betting he’ll bounce back to form – that is, if he goes 4/1!
Dodged a bullet there, looks one to avoid.
Note to self: avoid Sligo, looks an awful tight track.
Hoping they both line up THM, especially Baily Green. Still hoping they step him up in trip this season, but regardless, will be good to see him back anyway.
I’ve still got The Cesarewitch to go, but still, nearly there
Thanks for your comments on the other thread VTC. The Cesarewhat? Do you mean the Charlie Hall?
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As posted in response to OLAS in TAPK’s ‘Different Approach’ thread, regarding
Dursey Sound
:
Only ran one bad race in his five runs, where he ran so bad it’s probably best ignoring. He ran a good second to Annie Power on debut at Galway before winning two hurdle races in impressive style. Jimbill was impressive last time but he’s conceding half a stone to Dursey Sound which I think is a tall order. I won’t be getting stuck in but I’ll have a tenner on at 9/4 with Boyles.
Bangor 2.50
Dursey Sound
€10 win @ 9/4- €65
Ha, I love The Cezarewhitch THM, along with the Ayr Gold Cup, and The Cambridgeshire, it adds a bit of interest as the flat season runs out of steam……..love it when The Charlie Hall comes round, but for now, bring on Cheltenham in October.
As posted in response to OLAS in TAPK’s ‘Different Approach’ thread, regarding
Dursey Sound
:
Only ran one bad race in his five runs, where he ran so bad it’s probably best ignoring. He ran a good second to Annie Power on debut at Galway before winning two hurdle races in impressive style. Jimbill was impressive last time but he’s conceding half a stone to Dursey Sound which I think is a tall order. I won’t be getting stuck in but I’ll have a tenner on at 9/4 with Boyles.
Bangor 2.50
Dursey Sound
€10 win @ 9/4+ €32.50
- €32.50
I fancy two horses today at Gowran, in the opening maiden hurdles. In the first, I thought
Some Hawk
would have been favorite ahead of Chicago. Chicago ran on well behind two promising animals at Listowel but Some Hawk placed in a couple of very good bumpers in the Spring, and I prefer the strength of his form behind Very Wood and On Blueberry Hill. In the second, I expect Gigginstown’s first horse with Henry De Bromhead,
Bishops Road
, to do the business. The Meade horse was disappointing last time out and I think Bishops Road is held in pretty high regard. At 3/1 and 7/4 respectively, I’m backing both.
Gowran 2.05
Some Hawk
€10 win @ 3/1 (Boyles)Gowran 2.35
Bishops Road
€10 win @ 7/4 (Boyles)- €52.50
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