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Good evening all. I want to test the waters a bit with my staking, and have had the itch to start a new jumps thread for a while so here I am.
I’ve never used a concrete staking plan, but have had a limit for a max bet and bet accordingly depending on how much value I think is in the bet. I also bet each-way from time to time, when I feel it makes sense, although I have cut down on my each-way bets. I will continue to do as such in the real world, in terms of staking and the odd each way, but for the purposes of this thread all selections will be win only, either 1 or 2 points, and I won’t include any ante-post bets.
I’ll begin with two selections on tomorrow’s card at Navan. The first is Oscar Knight in the 14:20. Two starts back he won a Galway handicap chase with loads in hand and would have went close last time out but for a terrible blunder at the second last, which ended any chance he had of winning. On the face of things he’s the outsider of the JP McManus trio tomorrow at 12/1, and you never know with horses running in these colours as there could be target months down the road. However, off his current mark he’ll struggle to get into anything more valuable than this and I’m willing to take a chance they’ll keep the handbrake down.
It’s as competitive a handicap chase as you’re likely to see in Ireland on a Saturday and there are a few other interesting contenders. Kitten Rock tops the betting, unsurprisingly, after a good comeback run behind Zabana at Gowran. He’s the form pick but he turns out quick enough again after an absence. Ned Stark has his first run for Gordon Elliot so it will be interesting to see if Gordon has gotten anything more out of him while Ball Darc represents the current crop of novices. Alisier D’Irlande is a horse I was excited about last season but he was disappointing for me first time this season and I would prefer him over two miles than over the stiff 2m 4f at Navan. Could Henry be playing games with something like the Grand Annual in mind? He doesn’t have form for such things but it wouldn’t be the worst of plans.
My second selection is Our Duke in the 14:55. I’ve been looking forward to his reappearance for some time and can’t wait to see him jump a fence. He had no respect for hurdles and if he can make an improvement in his jumping now sent over fences he could make a huge leap in form. I don’t think he has far to go to bridge the gap with the market leader Prince Of Scars here. There’s plenty of depth to the race with one of the most intriguing runners of the day, Rathvinden, having his first run since finishing third to Faugheen in the Neptune over two years ago. This is a hot beginners to be making his comeback in but he’s a horse I’d really like to see back to something like his best this season. Edwulf and Gwencily Berbas, who made a lovely chase debut, add further competition but I’ll be disappointed if Our Duke doesn’t prove the best of these long term.
Selections:
Oscar Knight 1 pt 12/1 Various (Navan 14:25)
Our Duke 2 pt 6/1 Bet365 (Navan 14:55)-3
Thanks Gord, I’d like to think I’ve already made that step (have cut the flat betting altogether and tipping away nicely with the jumpers the past couple of years) but always looking for a way to eek out a bit more and I do enjoy the craic on here!
Welcome back THM and good luck with the thread.
The couple of maidens are obviously worth a look for another day. Not really worth a punt on an outsider with the big guns cornering the market. I have only backed Backspin’s brother in the last. He just looked too big at 11/2.
I followed you in on Oscar Knight Tommy, happy days…………..less happy that I didn’t follow you in on Our Duke
Thanks Stilvi, Raymo, VTC and Nathan, for the well wishes. Things have started well today, and well done Stilvi with the bumper winner who was heavily gambled and VTC with Oscar Knight also.
Oscar Knight 1 pt 12/1 Various (Navan 14:25) returns 13 pts
Our Duke 2 pt 6/1 Bet365 (Navan 14:55) returns 14 pts+24
Another decent Irish card at Punchestown tomorrow. I think Jessica Harrington could potentially have a great day tomorrow as she has horses with excellent chances all through the card.
In the opener I think Sunni May is the one to beat. He was probably fortunate to win last time with the departure of Baardys but he did to get the job done to win having been hampered by that one’s fall. I was impressed by how well he finished his race that day and there’s little to fear here. Henry de Bromhead’s Conrad Hastings is the unknown quantity of the race but I’m happy to side with the proven ability of Sunni May at 9/2.
The second race is a nice little maiden hurdle with a few horses I’m happy to take on. Champagne Classic was impressive against Some Neck but that one is hardly a reliable yardstick, while Turcagua often seems to find a way to get beaten. I’m hoping it will be a quick fire double for the Jessica Harrington stable as New To This Town appeals at 11/2. A good bumper horse, he didn’t perform in Cheltenham and although he was slightly disappointing behind Invitation Only on his hurdling debut, I’m hoping he’ll come on for that effort.
Another Harrington horse appeals in the third race, a handicap hurdle, as the JP McManus owned Thirsty Work looked a winner in waiting last time out. He travelled nicely into the race that day and wasn’t knockd about when his chance had gone, and it looked the typical improving type of effort before the green and gold go for the jugular next time.
In the 2m beginners chase, Woodland Opera looks the value at 11/2. American Tom heads the betting at 5/2, but he has only had two career starts and was a very fortunate winner of his maiden hurdle. He’s obviously had his issues having been off since then. At this stage he is all hype and no substance for me. Blue Hell is in as second favourite but I’d prefer the chances of Gangster and reckon he could be the danger to the selection. Woodland Opera ran fourth in the good beginners chase that saw Haymount, Coney Island and Mall Dini fill the places, and although he was beaten a long way, he travelled well into the race and looked in need of the run.
Selections:
Sunni May 1 pt 9/2 Various (Punchestown 12:25)
New To This Town 1 pt 11/2 Various (Punchestown 12:55)
Thirsty Work 1 pt 4/1 Various (Puchestown 13:30)
Woodland Opera 2 pts 11/2 Various (Punchestown 14:35)+19
Well you couldn’t have wished for much better than that.
Good luck in the quest for 6/6.
I have filed tomorrow under too difficult. The one of yours I would be most interested in would be Sunni May but I suspect he will eventually be better over 2m4f. I guess they wanted to split their novices and this one had the greater pace. A decent pace and a drop of rain might be helpful.
Sunni May made it three out of three for the thread with a smooth win in the opener. He looks like he may improve further when stepped up in trip. The others were disappointing. New To This Town looks in dire need of a staying trip, while Woodland Opera looks the opposite. He has twice finished very weakly this season now and there may be something amiss with him physically. Probably best to give him a miss for the time being. The winner American Tom could be very good on a left handed track.
Sunni May 1 pt 9/2 Various (Punchestown 12:25) returns 5.5 pts
+24.5
Great start Tommy
If you maintain 3 out of 6 form 50% you will be a god in my book!!
Thanks Bobby, would be good to see him back in action. I thought he was one well handicapped horse about two years ago, it’s unlikely he’ll be back to his best but there could still be races to be won with him.
Two fancies tomorrow, one in Thurles and one in Navan. In the opener at Thurles Keppols Queen looks overpriced at 4/1. She faded to finish second at Wexford last time out but her jockey pressed on a long way from home and she was better than the bare form. A 140-rated hurdler, she was previously fourth in a hot beginners chase at Navan, won by Road To Respect. The favourite here is Royal Caviar at even money, he was a 37-rated hurdler, it’s his first run of the season and he’s a perennial loser, there’s no reason why there should be so much between them in the market.
At Navan, I fancy the favourite Gurteen to take the Grade B hanciap hurdle. He was a close third behind Anibale Fly and Martello Tower last time out in a beginners chase and that form has worked out very well. It looks as those connections have had a look at the novice chase division and decided to make hay with his hurdles mark of 133 which looks very lenient.
Selections:
Keppols Queen 1 pt 4/1 B365 (Thurles 12:30)
Gurteen 1 pt win 3/1 Various (Navan 13:20)+22.5
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