January 29, 2008 at 13:23 #6434
Unlike me to kick things off I know, but I’ve got a bit of spare time so I took it upon myself to glance through the golf.
First of all, congrats to Pete last week on his excellent Adam Scott selection – I believe now that we have selected at least one good priced winner every week this year… and like I said, if anyone follows our selections each way then there are some decent bets being landed.
Dubai Desert Classic
The stance I take in golf, is that if you fancy someone one week, and they do well, then turn out the very next week under similar conditions – then why oppose them? So you won’t be surprised to know that once again I’m puttup up Colin Montgomerie and Nick Dougherty.
They finished 6th and 7th respectively last week, just denying me some decent bets, so I will be backing them three-folded this week. First of all I will be backing them outright – both Monty and Dougherty are currently trading at 80. I will also back them in the market without Woods – Monty at 34, Dougherty at 32… and finally I will be backing them to finish in the top five – Monty at 9.0 and Dougherty at 8.5.
Whenever Tiger tee’s it up I think it’s important to look at the markets other than the outright winner one (Woods is odds on this week ). So my final few selections in this tournament will only be in the ‘Winner w/o Woods’ market and they are for Robert Karlsson at 44 and Jyoti Randhawa at 55. Both have some decent course form and have regularly finished in the top 20.
I haven’t really got a strong feeling in this event and stakes will be kept to a minimum. Big Phil didn’t show enough for me in the Buick to merit his short price at the head of the market and I am far more interested in defending champion Aaron Badeley at 25’s.
Vijay Singh showed glimpses of his best last week and I’d be gutted if he won at odds of 27 in a tournament without Tiger – usually he would be no bigger than 16’s when Tiger isn’t in the field. He was 3 over par quite early on day one, but he dug in and turned it around with a 68 on day two and eventually finished near the top 20.
My final selection will be Geoff Ogilvy at 85. This tremendous talent hasn’t been at his best of late but he noramally plays well at this time of year – winning the World Matchplay (WGC version) and finishing runner up in recent years. His US Open victory didn’t signal the start of many wins as some would have expected, but he is now starting tournaments at prices that are too big for a player of such ability. I think he could be the guy I could well follow until he wins at similar odds. Whether he take me over a cliff will remain to be seen
Good luck to everyone this week, and here’s hoping we can have another successful week tipping on the golf front.
All the best
MikeJanuary 29, 2008 at 16:42 #138696SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
Well done to Mike last week with his e/way selection on Cink in the Buick which Tiger won easily.
Can Tiger win again in Dubai? There are only a few players that I think have a chance of winning in Dubai and Tiger is obviously one of them. Tiger’s last two easy wins have been on home soil at two of his favorite golf courses and I think he may find things a bit harder this week where he has won once out of four attempts. However if he continues to putt as well as he has recently then he is going to be very difficult to beat. One player who loves the Dubai course is Ernie Els who is playing his first tournament of the year and he could go very close if he can get back to his best form.
My first selection is predictable and is Henrik Stenson who has the self confidence to beat Tiger as he showed last year when he won here and he loves playing in these gulf events. I managed to get on early and get odds of 12.5 on BF.
I have not bet on Sergio Garcia since the British Open but I am going to select him this week. He played reasonably well on his first tournament of the year in Qatar and his final two rounds of 67 & 67 are encouraging but I’ll have to hope that he does not get too many short putts to hole as he is renowned for missing them..12 ft putts are no problem but 3 ft putts – oops
My final selection is an e/way one on Robert Karlsson in the hope he can get back to the form which gave him a runner up finish in Hong Kong at the start of the season.
On the pga tour, it’s the FBR Open which takes place in Scottsdale, Arizona where Aaron Baddeley lives and he won this event last year. It looks very competitive with lots of decent established players taking part along with lots of promising young players.
This looks a difficult tournament to pick the winner of and I’ve bet on 5 players on BF all at decent odds ( between 64/1 and 180/1 ). I’m being an optimist again
I’ll start with John Mallinger who I chose as my player to watch on the 2008 US tour in Mike’s challenge. This is my first bet on him this season. I’m not sure this course will really suit him but he played well last week to finish 23rd.
I’m also going to bet again on Troy Matteson who missed the cut last time I backed him ….. but he did play well last week.
My next choice is Jeff Quinney who finished 3rd here in 2007 and is a good putter.
Finally my other 2 selections are players who I have never bet on before –
Boo Weekley who has finished in the top 20 in his last 2 tournaments and will not mind the rowdy crowds that attend this event.
The young Columbian Camilo Villegas who has improved a lot during the last 6 months and finished last season with 3 top ten finishes and played well last week on his first tournament of the season. I’ll be surprised if he does not win a pga before the end of the year.
Good luck to everybody
PeteJanuary 29, 2008 at 21:27 #138771wakemanMember
- Total Posts 434
Good evening Chaps, well having managed to get back from the office early tonight , it gives me a bit of time this evening to put my two penneth worth to the cause .
After a cracking effort from Pete and Mike last week and as Mike has already stated we now have had a decent return from us all every week, i definately think a visit to the Racing Post HQ is well worth considering, Chappers and Co we are after your Jobs .
So what do we make of this week, for a start it is the return of the Ladies to the fray, not that we will be able to see much of it , and it is also Tiger v ROW or that’s how it seems.
I will make a start with the Mexican Open, certainly a tournament to tread carefully with me thinks.
Flying the Flag for me here will be Brendon De Jong and supported by Chris Riley, although Stakes will be kept to a Minimum.
Next up will be the FBR Open and as with the main man Lefty is certainly worth taking on.
There are a Couple that would carry my hopes normally, but i will have to pass them over on this occasion, those being Vijay, and Mike Weir, as quickly as he has had a renaissance so the wheels seem to have come of again, to name a couple.
I will be having three E/W’s in this those being,Kenny Perry, backed up by Andres Romero and will have to give my man another run out Hunter Mahan, although i thought the price for Daniel Chopra was a tad Generous.
Up next the MFS Australian Open, this Marks the start of the Ladies Tour and as much as i respect Karrie Webb, i’m afraid at current odds reputation has alot to say about it, whilst in no way suggesting she can’t win, she had for me one of her worst years last year, although she did i believe win this.
I will be having two against the Field here those being Laura Davies for win purposes and my lady to follow this year certainly on the European Tour Linda Wessberg .
Finally unless i have missed something in which case i will put it right at the first opportunity the Dubai Desert Classic, although the Great man’s game is pretty Brill at the moment a glimmer of hope here because as far as i can remember he has only won this Once.
I have to admit i’m very tempted by Lee Westwood as he seems on good terms with himself at present, but i just have a niggling doubt which is enough to say no on this occasion.
First up here will be a small investment on David Howell in the hope that his exploits of last week signal that the stiff bed will no longer be needed as he seemed to not have much problem with the back .
The supporting cast will be made up of a couple of a couple towards the head of the market i’m afraid, those being Ernie Els and i will have to go along with Henrik Stenson again.
Well to Pete, Mike, Crizzy and whoever would like to add an opinion as always Be Lucky, am now going to have a bowl of Stew so will catch up with you all later.
Cheers for now.
Adrian.January 30, 2008 at 18:23 #139022crizzyParticipant
- Total Posts 789
Quick flick through the papers/net and have come up with the following fancies….
DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC
MA JIMENEZ (He’ll win if I don’t back the man )
(Last named two ew)
Good luck every one!!!January 31, 2008 at 16:00 #139245
Some unknown guy by the name of ‘Woods’ is leading in Dubai – I wonder if he has the ability and experience to hold on
MikeFebruary 2, 2008 at 13:16 #139712SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
It’s looking promising for Adrian this week over in Dubai with his selections of Els and Stenson at the top of the leaderboard. Can never rule out Tiger but he will have to be at his best to win this from 4 shots back but he’s done it before. Westwood is another danger.
Crizzy also tipped Els. I obviously want Stenson to win but it will be interesting tomorrow.
PeteFebruary 2, 2008 at 14:46 #139730
Yes good luck Adrian, Crizzy and Pete – you’re all in a good positon in Europe, unlike me
I’m just off out now and won’t be able to post until Monday so I will have all my fingers crossed for you all.
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