March 14, 2020 at 15:06 #1486170
Main things I took from this years festival
1) fresh horses that have been trained to peak for the day are much more reliable to back
2) dont back hold up horses in the handicap chases
3) dont be afraid to back drifters
4) reduce money spent ante post (I did mainly free bets this year and it saved me plenty of money)
5) no such thing as a banker at Cheltenham
6) be very wary of whatever JP mcmanus runs in the handicap hurdles
7) elliot, mullins and henderson are head and shoulders above most of the trainers when it comes to getting a horse spot on for the big day
Many of them are obvious and we already knew but have just been reinforced by the last 4 days
Anyone have anything else they will be using to inform their betting for Cheltenham 2021?March 14, 2020 at 15:32 #1486175thewexfordmanParticipant
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1. When Gordon Elliot sends a McManus horse to come 4th in Warwick in a pertemps qualifier with his only runner on the card, then there is a fair chance he’ll win at Cheltenham.
2. Don’t pay much attention to any British horse unless it’s trained by Nicky Henderson
3. Cheltenham form from previous festivals is more important than more recent form elsewhere. Few examples – concertista, melon, sire du berlais, us and them.
4. Ignore ratings given by handicapper to juvenile hurdlers.
5. The consistent inability of Hobbs, Pipe, O’Neill, Alan King, twiston Davies, Meade and (to a slightly lesser extent) Tizzard to get their horses ready (either in terms of form, or handicap marks) for Cheltenham.March 14, 2020 at 16:47 #1486185Cork All StarParticipant
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Agree with all the points. Two of my best winners of the week – Shishkin and Sire Du Berlais – drifted like barges but still won. Not worried about price drifts at all.
As for Mullins, Elliott and Henderson (and I think we can throw in De Bromhead and Nicholls as well), they get good horses but they consistently win. Maybe we have to face up to the fact that the trainers mentioned by Wexford are just not as good as them.
I was fortunate that the results went well for me so I will not change much next year apart from paying more attention to the Elliott horses at the head of the market in the handicaps. His winner in the Grand Annual must have been a stone well in and would have won much more easily if he had not fluffed the last.
And I hope Champ and Topofthegame both make it to the Gold Cup next year.March 14, 2020 at 17:19 #1486188
I backed 2 or 3 of Alan kings, will not be doing that again
All of them jumped terribly and never got into the raceMarch 14, 2020 at 17:37 #1486191Cork All StarParticipant
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Agree FF. I backed his favourite in the Fred Winter which ran a shocker. Thankfully I also had a saver on Elliot’s winner as well!
King seems to be training a few more on the Flat. I wonder if he may become a proper dual purpose trainer in time.
I think Tizzard had an excuse. His horses are out of form – his runner in the Midlands National today was beaten at half way. Taking that into consideration, Lostintranslation ran a mighty race in the Gold Cup. If all is well and the meeting goes ahead, he must have a great chance at Aintree on the Thursday.March 14, 2020 at 22:02 #1486217worzelwaywardladParticipant
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Wholeheartedly agree. We know the specific races in which we should just see what messers Mullins, Elliot and Henderson are running and take it from there. We should also all save up our pennies and regardless of the price dive in to back the Irish having the most winners.March 15, 2020 at 10:23 #1486224homersimpsonParticipant
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Probably not back again with the luck I had
Abacadabras – Travelled like a dream throughout the race only to get beat a head
Benie Des Dieux – Less said the better about that ride
1st race – Had the odds on winner in a lucky 15 going onto Minella Indo, Defi and Tiger
RSA – 1st and 2nd on the run in after the last. FFS.
Faugheen – May have won if jumped 3 out better
Ryanair – Backed Saint Calvados E/W – Again may have won with a better jump at the last
Friday – The “best” of the lot
Yes you’ve guessed it backed Goshen in the first.
Saint Roi – At last a fairly decent priced winner. Has the luck turned?
Thyme Hill – Surely would have been closer and probably would have won but for the squeeze.
Santini – Just failed. Ran a great race in a race with not the usual GC pace. Had ABP in a Lucky 15 with Goshen, Thyme Hill and Minella Rocco. Also had LIT E/W.
The Lucky Last – Pileon. Some luck at the last hurdle as he’s left clear. The luck lasts all of 5 seconds as he’s chinned on the lineMarch 15, 2020 at 11:07 #1486228
That is some seriously bad luckMarch 15, 2020 at 17:12 #1486260Tizaaards CiderParticipant
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I’ll be taking a well earnt holiday because (apologies for the after timing) I had a great week. My main bet was an epatante and champ win double placed before Xmas. I also had indefatigable in the last alongside aramax on Wednesday.
My main thing to take from the week though will be that Gary Moore was spot on when he called Goshen a freak. The 6/1 about him winning the champion hurdle next year looks very generous if you’re into wanting to back horses where you won’t get a return for nearly a year.March 15, 2020 at 17:57 #1486262He Didnt Like GroundParticipant
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As I’ve prev stated reckon there,s a bunch of above standard novices to follow next year , envoi Allen looks a monster , Goshen a kite , shiskin if he can jump should make a top class novice jumper ….and I love abracadbras , of the established horses I really think lost in translation ran a monster for a yard in a dip , if they can keep his wind right he ,s going to win plenty more races , we also have the return of topofthegame ……I’m wishing the summer away already
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