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The Zurich Axioms

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  • #4757
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms:

    On Risk:
    – Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
    – Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
    – Resist the allure of diversification.

    On Greed:
    – Always take your profit too soon.
    – Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

    On Hope:
    – When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
    – Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

    On Forecasts:
    – Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

    On Patterns:
    – Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
    – Beware the historian’s trap – it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
    – Beware the chartist’s illusion – it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
    – Beware the gambler’s fallacy – there’s no such thing as "Today’s my lucky day" or "I’m hot tonight".

    On Mobility:
    – Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
    – Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
    – Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

    On Intuition:
    – A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
    – Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

    On the Occult:
    – If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
    – A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

    On Optimism & Pessimism:
    – Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

    On Consensus:
    – Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
    – Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

    On Stubbornness:
    – If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
    – Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".

    On Planning:
    – Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people’s seriously. In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don’t have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don’t be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

    __________________________________________________________

    These are the Axioms .. my favourite is On Risk .. helpfull advise for gamblers ??

    #109752
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    Excellent stuff.
    Well done Maxie.
    :twisted:

    #109779
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    A nice mixture of sound advice, pointless commentary, and basic silliness. I think Gunther suffers from trying too hard to sound like God – trying to encapsulate complex notions in simple boomed-out ‘Thou Shalt’ style statements which then lose meaning.

    The top 3 silliest ‘statements’ for me would be:

    On Forecasts:
    – Human behaviour cannot be predicted…
    (Oh really? I beg to differ, however dimly!)[/color:1dvlyzzw]

    On Consensus:
    – Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
    [i:1dvlyzzw](It is probably partly wrong. Don’t disregard it, but don’t accept it either. Personally, I like to examine it and try to understand why it pervades…)[/color:1dvlyzzw][/i:1dvlyzzw]

    On Stubbornness:
    – If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
    (D’oh! Check your reasoning and challenge any assumptions you may have made in the context of the extra information you now have. If it still makes sense, you have to try it again and repeat the process – or someone else will…)[/color:1dvlyzzw]

    #109782
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Max is/was, who is he? is he still alive? excuse my ignorance! :oops: , a cynic.

    I particularly dislike his advice on Mobility!

    Colin

    #109794
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268
    #109796
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Thanks, Non. 8)

    Colin

    #109807
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6939

    As an alternative to the Zurich axioms, herewith some more advice for life;

    Thou shalt not steal if there is direct victim.
    Thou shalt not worship Pop Idols or follow Lostprophets.
    Thou shalt not take the names of Johnny Cash, Joe Strummer, Johnny Hartman, Desmond Decker, Jim Morrison, Jimi Hendrix or Syd Barret in vain.

    Thou shalt not think that any male over the age of 30 that plays with a child that is not their own is a paedophile… Some people are just nice.
    Thou shalt not read NME.
    Thall shalt not stop liking a band just because they’ve become popular.
    Thou shalt not question Stephen Fry.

    Thou shalt not judge a book by it’s cover.
    Thou shalt not judge Lethal Weapon by Danny Glover.
    Thall shalt not buy Coca-Cola products. Thou shalt not buy Nestle products.
    Thou shalt not go into the woods with your boyfriend’s best friend, take drugs and cheat on him.
    Thou shalt not fall in love so easily.

    Thou shalt not use poetry, art or music to get into girls’ pants. Use it to get into their heads.
    Thou shalt not watch Hollyoaks.
    Thou shalt not attend an open mic and leave as soon as you’re done just because you’ve finished your s****y little poem or song you self-righteous p***k.
    Thou shalt not return to the same club or bar week in, week out just ’cause you once saw a girl there that you fancied but you’re never gonna f*****g talk to.

    Thou shalt not put musicians and recording artists on ridiculous pedestals no matter how great they are or were.

    The Beatles – were just a band.
    Led Zepplin – just a band.
    The Beach Boys – just a band.
    The Sex Pistols – just a band.
    The Clash – just a band.
    Crass – just a band.
    Minor Threat – just a band.
    The Cure – just a band.
    The Smiths – just a band.
    Nirvana – just a band.
    The Pixies – just a band.
    Oasis – just a band.
    Radiohead – just a band.
    Bloc Party – just a band.
    The Arctic Monkeys – just a band.
    The next big thing – JUST A BAND.

    Thou shalt give equal worth to tragedies that occur in non-English speaking countries as to those that occur in English speaking countries.
    Thou shalt remember that guns, bitches and bling were never part of the four elements and never will be.

    Thou shalt not make repetitive generic music
    Thou shalt not make repetitive generic music
    Thou shalt not make repetitive generic music
    Thou shalt not make repetitive generic music

    Thou shalt not pimp my ride.
    Thou shalt not scream if you wanna go faster.
    Thou shalt not move to the sound of the wickedness.
    Thou shalt not make some noise for Detroit.
    When I say “Heyâ€Â

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #109808
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268
    #109874
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    That’s no then .. you don’t think it’s useful .. ?

    #109881
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6939

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoN6XfyQsr4

    Outstanding Jeremy!

    Aye! Kind of restores your faith in human beings that stuff like this, CSS, New Young Pony Club and Peter Bjorn & John can find their way into the top 40…

    As regards the Zurich Axioms and similar, I’d suggest the best bit of advice I ever got on playing the hosses was never to chase losses. I’m sure that’s saved me a whole heap of pain.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #110096
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    I just read all the stuff about Switzerland and how wealthy it is.
    Ireland is now one of the wealthiest countries in the world.It has also produced some of the most wonderful writers of the English language Joyce,Yeats, Shaw and Wilde amongst them.
    With all their wealth Switzerland has the cuckoo clock.Money and the out of date clock from the Black Forest.Give me a break.

    #110103
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2155

    Ireland is now one of the wealthiest countries in the world.It has also produced some of the most wonderful writers of the English language Joyce,Yeats, Shaw and Wilde amongst them.
    With all their wealth Switzerland has the cuckoo clock.Money and the out of date clock from the Black Forest.Give me a break.

    This thread has drifted bigtime away from horseracing but…..

    Ireland’s current wealth has nothing to do with its literary heritage.

    The reason behind it is that Ireland, like Spain, has done very, very, very well from EU handouts – Brussels-determined wealth transfers between member states.

    So much so that Ireland and Spain, fearing reduction in handouts, were the only EU members to vote against the 2004 enlargement of the EU to bring in the former East European states (plus Malta and Cyprus).

    best regards

    wit

    #110144
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    A quick perusal of the axioms, left one overriding thought about human behaviour.
    The entire body of the social sciences are based on various models of human behaviour and its predictability, so I feel that Max Gunther got that one wrong.
    People are fairly predictable provided you follow the plot of the play and not the posturing of the characters. In short, its what people do rather than what they say, that matters.
    As far as betting/gambling or just taking an interest in horse racing is concerned, it can all be explained quite easily by various studies on behaviour.
    The Gambling Industry and the financial markets use these studies to make their tactical and strategic decisions about their customers, competitors, suppliers and governments that try to control them. All predictable human activity.

    On the other hand, if Max had said horses were unpredictable, he might have been on to something.

    #110482
    Cian
    Member
    • Total Posts 81

    Ireland is now one of the wealthiest countries in the world.It has also produced some of the most wonderful writers of the English language Joyce,Yeats, Shaw and Wilde amongst them.
    With all their wealth Switzerland has the cuckoo clock.Money and the out of date clock from the Black Forest.Give me a break.

    This thread has drifted bigtime away from horseracing but…..

    Ireland’s current wealth has nothing to do with its literary heritage.

    The reason behind it is that Ireland, like Spain, has done very, very, very well from EU handouts – Brussels-determined wealth transfers between member states.

    So much so that Ireland and Spain, fearing reduction in handouts, were the only EU members to vote against the 2004 enlargement of the EU to bring in the former East European states (plus Malta and Cyprus).

    best regards

    wit

    That’s a very simplistic view to take – there are myriad economic and social reasons why Ireland is in the financial position it is now and EU subsidies/handouts are only a small factor in this.

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