The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

The "who knows what" subject

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks The "who knows what" subject

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 20 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #12628
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Last week Coral’s were going 1/5th 1-2-3 9/2 about Mastercraftsman while Bet365 had the same terms but at 7s. I really don’t know what some of these odds compilers are on.

    #248439
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    I see the 7/2 about Fallon being champ for 2010 with Ladbrokes has been cut to 5/2 this morning. Would they be cleaned out without the exchanges these days? :oops:

    Incidentally even though it was my first ever bet online with Ladbrokes, they would only lay me £40 at 7/2. Is it any wonder their losing business on racing.

    #248480
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Last week Coral’s were going 1/5th 1-2-3 9/2 about Mastercraftsman while Bet365 had the same terms but at 7s. I really don’t know what some of these odds compilers are on.

    Which price was wrong?

    #248481
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Personally I felt the 7s was wrong. There was no way in hell he was going to finish outside the top 3 so you were basically getting at least a 11/8 shot for nothing with a chance of a free 7/1 shot.

    #248482
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Personally I felt the 7s was wrong. There was no way in hell he was going to finish outside the top 3 so you were basically getting at least a 11/8 shot for nothing with a chance of a free 7/1 shot.

    I’d concur, but since £3.65 were enormously unlikely to rack up any each-way liabilities, they’ll argue that they were right ;)

    #248531
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    The Irish Champion was just an impossible race to win on for bookmakers – end of story.

    On the subject of who knew what, plenty of people clearly "knew" Yeats wasn’t going to win in Ireland today

    We couldn’t lay a penny of the horse despite knocking it out several times. On the off the horse was trading at nearly 7-1 on Betfair – an astonishing price, even for those who took a negative view of the horse’s chance.

    It is becoming a feature of the "new world" of bookmaking – it is extremely difficult to lay much of certain horses even if you put up substantial arbs (J J the Jet Plane was another example today)

    #248537
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    it was my first ever bet online with Ladbrokes, they would only lay me £40 at 7/2

    … you better enjoy that while it lasts, I got about five weeks before being cut back and I didn’t even win that much.

    #248544
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29178

    Curious thread this:

    Are people really complaining that bookmakers / exchanges are offering too big a price?

    Or have I got that wrong?

    Hope so. :shock: :?

    Value Is Everything
    #248551
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Ginge, not complaining, just observing ;)

    #248556
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    I see the 7/2 about Fallon being champ for 2010 with Ladbrokes has been cut to 5/2 this morning. Would they be cleaned out without the exchanges these days? :oops:

    Incidentally even though it was my first ever bet online with Ladbrokes, they would only lay me £40 at 7/2. Is it any wonder their losing business on racing.

    4/1 at Victor Chandler if you’re interested Cav…

    #248595
    brendanr
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    Personally I felt the 7s was wrong. There was no way in hell he was going to finish outside the top 3 so you were basically getting at least a 11/8 shot for nothing with a chance of a free 7/1 shot.

    A common mistake made but e/w you weren’t getting 11/8 for nothing you were getting 1/5 for nothing.

    As for those folks who are playing Fallon to be champion in 2010 good luck with that but it happens only if Ryan Moore has a serious injury or is put on the sidelines for a longer period due to riding transgressions.
    Riding first string for Cumani is not going to get it done I’m afraid or more to the point, thank goodness.

    #248597
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Brendan

    As you’re so keen on teaching arithmetic, you might care to work out KF’s win rate since his return, and compare it with Ryan Moore’s for the season.
    Then tell us he’s no chance – even from his current meagre retainers. :roll:

    #248601
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    If the title was decided on who was capable of knocking in a clutch or winners in a short space of time, then KF would have a great chance.

    Sadly, it isn’t. It is about maintaining that level of riding and more important, that level of discipline over an entire season.

    My best wishes go to anyone taking 4-1 about Fallon

    #248606
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29178

    Anyone backing Fallon for 2010 is probably not saying he has a better chance than Ryan Moore. Just that he has a better than 4/1 20% chance (7/2 22%). Just a matter of opinion. I would think that price is a fair one, with everything that could happen between now and the end of 2010. Doubt whether Ryan has a better than 69% 4/9 chance anyway (imo).

    So you are all right, Ryan has a much better chance of winning, yet Fallon is a much better bet (in my opinion of course). :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #248607
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    Sadly, it isn’t. It is about maintaining that level of riding and more important, that level of discipline over an entire season.

    Sadly for the layers, he’s already done it 6 times before. And believe me discipline will not be a problem :wink:

    So you are all right, Ryan has a much better chance of winning, yet Fallon is a much better bet (in my opinion of course).

    A good summation there , Ginge.

    Dettori doesn’t want it.
    Hughes is tied up with Hannon and has weight issues.
    Spencer isnt interested.
    Hanagan doesnt have enough contacts in southern yards.
    Callan for some strange reason isn’t fashionable enough.
    Sanders was a one off.
    Catlin works hard enough but isnt good enough.
    Winston hasn’t been the same since his injury.
    Queally and Hills are tied up with breeding operations.

    7/2 about a proven Group 1 top notcher in a 2 horse race, who wants it badly and who’s ridden 11 winners in his first week back.

    There’s a dislike element factored into Fallons price. Kinda like New Approach being widely available at 6/1 on Derby Day because the market didnt like his trainer…We all know what happened next

    Moore rightly deserves to be favourite, Fallon a 6/4 shot. Would be happy to have a private bet at 4/1 TDK.

    #248609
    brendanr
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    Brendan

    As you’re so keen on teaching arithmetic, you might care to work out KF’s win rate since his return, and compare it with Ryan Moore’s for the season.
    Then tell us he’s no chance – even from his current meagre retainers. :roll:

    Sheesh, my arithmetic will easily stand the test and if you are using that small a sample size good luck to you, you’ll need it.

    #248619
    brendanr
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    To take this one step further, in all the years Fallon was champion he never achieved a strike rate of 22% (Ryan’s current rate) best being 21% but three times lower than 20% at 17, 17 and 18% and all this with cream of the crop rides and powerful stable backing. Beating up on the likes of Darley, Quinn, Hughes the at that time ancient Eddery doesn’t impress me much. Frankie who he beat three times in that span had a better strike rate in all those seasons but many less rides.

    Ryan Moore is a completely different proposition with the necessary drive, ambition, and stable backing and if anybody believes he does not care about the championship good luck with that supposition. If Moore ever needed any kind of motivation, which he doesn’t, then all this talk about Fallon’s return is just the ticket.

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 20 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.