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So much cricket happening at the moment and keeping up to date with everything that is going on in the level of detail required to bet on it is proving to be a losing battle. So I’ve decided to follow the advice of many a professional punter and specialise in one area, namely Twenty20 cricket. There is plenty of it to keep me busy over the next few months, with the IPL, World Cup, Twenty20 Cup and then the ICL.
The IPL gets underway on Saturday and I’m looking forward to it. Nobody expected Rajasthan to win it last year but bookies and punters alike seem much wiser this time. The distinction between world class cricketers and world class cricketers who can play Twenty20 has become clear. And the importance of captaincy, fielding and teamwork is now fully appreciated. Certainly the current odds in the winners market appear to make more sense than they did last time round.
It is hard to argue, for example, with the presence of Delhi and Chennai at the top of the market. Delhi’s only weakness last year was in the middle order and they have moved to plug that gap with some canny acquisitions. And Chennai came within a hair’s breadth of winning the inaugural competition and are even stronger this year.
But we should still be wary of taking too short a price on any team. With so many quality players around, the biggest problem franchises have is not to find potential matchwinners but to put them together in the best possible combination. Pretty much any of the eight teams could put a tournament winning run at any time.
So, whilst I couldn’t argue with those who want to lump on Delhi or Chennai, I am more interested in backing a couple at bigger odds.
Mumbai had a dreadful start last time but recovered and missed out on the semis by just one point. Being without Tendulkar for half the tournament was a blow as was the loss of Harbhajan, one of the best limited overs bowlers in the world. Both are going to be around for the full six weeks this time. They may have lost Robin Uthappa, but they have added the classy J P Duminy and the exciting Mohammad Ashraful. Dwayne Bravo, Ryan McClaren and Graham Napier are a useful trio of all-rounders. Perhaps their best signing is the world’s best left armer, Zaheer Khan, who leads a fast bowling attack that includes Kyle Mills, Lasith Malinga and Dilhara Fernando. With Jayasuriya chipping in with the ball, they look a solid team and will be unaffected by the internatoinal call-ups that are likely to decimate some of the other squads. At 11-2 they make plenty of appeal.
For the Rajasthan Royals, much has been made of the loss of Shane Watson and Sohail Tanvir. But they are a shrewd franchise and have made some sound acquisitions. Shaun Tait should get his share of wickets and Tyron Henderson and Shane Harwood are solid Twenty20 specialists. But above all, their success last year was founded not individuals but on teamwork and the inspirational leadership of Shane Warne. He was innovative on the field and, together with Snape and Berry, produced an admirable team spirit off the field. Whereas some franchises seemed to make a sow’s ear out of a silk purse, Warne got the best out of some unheralded and unheard of Indian players. Perhaps 18 year old quick Kamran Khan might be another such player to benefit from the Warne magic this year. 17-2 about the tournament holders is an insult and should certainly be taken.
Wagers
Mumbai Indians to win IPL 2009 @ 11-2 (Various companies)
Rajasthan Royals to win IPL 2009 @ 17-2 (Boylesports)Two good fixtures to kick off the IPL and we’ll get an early look at one of the tournament favourites, Chennai. Their team is strong, virtually picks itself and will feature one Andrew Flintoff. But 5-4 on? Surely the lesson of last year’s tournament was not to lump on short-priced teams, particularly early in the competition. Having tipped Mumbai to win the tournament, I’m bound to find odds of 11-10 an insult and you can get slightly higher if you go decimal with Betfair.
In the top batsmen markets, M S Dhoni is an eye-catching 6-1 with Stan James to score the most runs for Chennai.
Rajasthan are similarly overpriced to beat Bangalore in the second opening day fixture, but not by enough to make them an interesting betting proposition. The clean-hitting Yusuf Pathan looks a good bet to top score for Rajasthan at 6-1.
And though I tend to stick to the main markets, it might be worth noting that in domestic cricket over the last two seasons, it has been rare for teams to pass 150 in twenty overs whilst the average number of fours in a game is around the 24 mark. Though the specialist markets for Total Fours and Total Match Runs are immature on the exchanges at the moment, they might be worth looking at closer to the off.
Wagers
Mumbai Indians to beat Chennai Super Kings @ 2.26 (Betfair)
M S Dhoni to be top Chennai batsman @ 6-1 (Stan James)
Yusuf Pathan to be top Rajasthan batsman @ 6-1 (Bet 365)http://thetwenty20punter.blogspot.com/
Great start to the IPL, two enjoyable matches and two grand performances by old timers Tendulkar and Dravid. Some of the shots played by the little master were of the rarest class, though I also enjoyed Jayasuriya’s between-the-legs leg glance. Mumbai were far too professional for the lumbering Chennai who didn’t rotate the strike enough, a charge that can also be laid at the door of the Rajasthan Royals and after his performance in the field, Warne deserved better from his batsmen.
In fact the only thing spoiling Day 1 of the IPL was the woeful Setanta coverage. Yet another ex-player (in this case Ronnie Irani) has been hired to tell us the bleeding obvious in an annoying accent. Most laughable of all was when he tried to tell us how cleverly Kevin Pietersen had handled his bowlers. You didn’t need to be Mike Brearley to realise that in damp conditions, with the ball likely to swing and defending a low total, that you should start with your seam bowlers. And the great KP was noticeably muted on the field until the fifth wicket went down when he suddenly began to wave his arms about and shout as though he was in control or something.
But enough of that. One thing that Day One should teach us is that in these autumnal conditions, with the ball swinging, seaming and bouncing a little more than last year, it is the bowlers of true class, rather than the hit and hope merchants who will carry the day. A re-assessment may be necessary and the likes of Laxman, Kallis and Ganguly might turn out to be rather more effective than had been assumed.
A profitable first day, though I can consider myself a trifle fortunate to collect on the Yusuf Pathan topscorer bet, with the great man notching a powerful 11 along with two others. According to the deadheat rules with Bet365, the stake is reduced to a third but that still leaves a profit after Day One of 2.13pts.
Sunday’s first game between Delhi and Punjab shouldn’t be much of a contest, given Punjab’s woeful lack of quality in the bowling department. In the top scorers market, David Warner stands out for Delhi at 5-1 and for Punjab, the 9-2 about Yuvraj with Paddy Power is an eye-catcher, considering he is 11-4 elsewhere.
I was expecting Deccan to be favourites against Kolkata and was stumped when I found that wasn’t the case. As such, I can’t really go for either side. In the top betting market, bearing in mind what I said about batting class being more important in these conditions, I am going to have to go for Laxman (11-2) and Ganguly (9-2) respectively.
Alternatively, you could just back the team that bats first both times.
Wagers
David Warner to be top scorer for Delhi @ 5-1 (Paddy Power)
Yuvraj Singh to be top scorer for Punjab @ 9-2 (Paddy Power)
VVS Laxman to be top scorer for Deccan @ 11-2 (Boylesports)
Sourav Ganguly to be top scorer for Kolkata @ 9-2 (Various)Running Total: + 2.13pts
http://thetwenty20punter.blogspot.com/
- Total Posts 17716
The sporting media sometimes has to adopt the academic approach to presentation (assume the examiner, or viewer in this case, knows nothing); whilst you and I may think that Ronnie Irani is ‘stating the bleeding obvious’, Andrew, there are many who will have only just been made aware of the joys of cricket (which was, after all, the remit of Twenty-20) and any information offered to them will be gratefully received.
That said, it could just be that Mr Irani is a tool.
I only caught a few overs of the Mumbai match – it’s all I could stand in truth, such was the standard of the Chennai batting performance – but how is Malinga’s action not under question? His approach was debatable in any case, but he seems to have deteriorated to such a level that balls are being released below shoulder height – I think one pitched about seven yards in front of him.
Fidel Edwards employs a similar style, but at least he has a modicum of control – Malinga is completely aimless.
Yes seeing Malinga again was quite a shock. I’d forgotten just how parallel his bowling action is. To be fair, once he’d found his range, he did sling them onto the batsmen’s toes with some regularity. I don’t know if you saw Kamran Khan bowling later on for Rajasthan, but his bent arm seems to straighten awfully late in his action. I don’t know whether the umpires can cite any bowlers during the IPL, presumably they can?
Of course you are right, Mr Irani had a dual purpose, though I’m not so sure how much the cricket novice would have learned from his ramblings. They’d have been better off with someone like Nick Knight who (providing he can learn to control his smirk) offers intelligent and informative comment for Sky. And was it my imagination or was Irani slurring his words a little?
Several irritating things about the coverage, not least the absurdity of the ‘DLF Maximum’ and the advert breaks. I enjoyed the cheerleaders. And the hairy fugitive from justice who interrupted proceedings during the Mumbai innings (insert your own hirsute cricketer joke).
A damp, drizzly, sawdust and swing sort of a day and some stop-start action in the gloom. Feeble bowling from Delhi and Punjab, with one glorious exception in the great bearded one, Mr Vettori. Punjab’s batting looks punchy, but their bowling isn’t going to frighten the pigeons. Delhi can do better when they get McGrath and Maharoof back in.
Deccan were enthusiastic and professional and their bowling early on was perfectly suited to the conditions. Kolkata took the Chennai and Rajasthan route (a road also travelled by the Bangalore top order) and tried to blast their way to glory with flat feet and flailing willow. It didn’t work. And where was Mendis? I want my money back.
I’d also quite like to get my money back from the various bookmakers mentioned yesterday. Sadly this is as likely as Lalit Modi offering a refund. The three big names let me down and little Warner didn’t even make the starting gate. I still think my theory is broadly correct: cometh the dodgy pitches, cometh the classy batsmen. But it needs perhaps some fine tuning.
Anyway, 1.87 pts down and I’m looking for redemption in tomorrow’s clash. First things first, the pitch I think will be even more bowler friendly than Cape Town, with a touch more pace about it. The domestic Twenty20 scores at St George’s Park over the last couple of seasons have been very low, with 150 surpassed on only one occasion in 14 innings. And a damp morning is forecast, which is sure to add a little more zip to the pitch.
Bangalore’s bowling looked good in the conditions on Saturday and though their early order fluffed their lines, I expect that Ray Jennings will have instilled some discipline into the likes of Ryder and Taylor. We may even see fat Jacques get a chance to show what he can do. I’m surprised to see them at odds against against Chennai. The Super Kings had the best of the pitch in their opening game, but really didn’t bat with any intelligence and fell well short.
Nothing stands out in the top bat market for Bangalore, but I would be interested in Suresh Raina for Chennai. He looked in really good touch on Saturday. And I’m going to give another chance to Dhoni who could find himself called upon to rescue the innings and who has the ability to craft an innings in these tougher conditions.
Wagers
Bangalore to beat Chennai @ 11-10 (Betfred)
Suresh Raina to top score for Chennai @ 4-1 (Various)
MS Dhoni to top score for Chennai @ 6-1 (Stan James)Running Total – 1.87 pts
Not a great day betting wise, but some punishing hitting from Hayden and little flashes of magic from Murali to lighten up today’s viewing. Best bowlers today were Murali, Kumble, Freddie and Morkel, suggesting that Port Elizabeth is more suited to the quicker men and the quicks than the medium pacers and worth bearing in mind for the future.
Chennai looked a lot more balanced with Flintoff and Morkel lower and obviously with Murali in the team. They are going to have to do something about Parthiv Patel who must have used up several cat’s lives in a decidedly dicey innings. And though Hayden obviously was in top form, he had plenty of rubbish to cash in. From 106-0 after 10, they really should have racked up 200.
Bangalore tried some things that didn’t work. Praveen Kumar opening was not a success, I think we can say with some safety and though Kallis was a good move, I’m not sure that Jesse Ryder deserved to be dropped. After a poor display by Taylor, I think he could be back for the next one. Particularly weak was their bowling display. Both the Kumars, Kallis (in his first over) and then Kohli bowled a pile of rubbish and why Pietersen waited so long to bring on Kumble, I don’t know.
Anyway, the net result of Day Three was three more points lost and some more ground to make up. Day Four is played out in Durban, where we can expect some bounce, some humidity and hence, some swing.
Kings XI Punjab have received a sympathetic press after they were on the wrong end of a rain damaged match with Delhi. Their batting was positively punchy and the form of Karan Goel was an unexpected boost in the absence of Marsh. It has to be remembered though that Goel was the recipient of some woeful Delhi bowling and when Sehwag brought Vettori on, Punjab couldn’t cope. And I’m not sure that Yuvraj, Sangakkara and Jayawardene are set up to play on seaming, bouncing wickets. I’m confident that Kolkata can dispatch them. The Knight Riders lost their chance with a mad twenty-minute opening in which they lost their three main batsmen. Their bowling isn’t great but it’s better than Punjab.
The other match between Rajasthan and Mumbai should be interesting, but Mumbai have to be big favourites. Rajasthan will no doubt be lively and enterprising in the field, but their bowling is lacking in class, Warne aside and their batting against Bangalore was sluggish and frankly witless. Mumbai are just too professional and organised and though I expect Warne will pull one or two surprises, I think Tendulkar’s men will take this. I wasn’t that interested in any of the top scorer markets until I happened to see Mascarenhas at 14-1. Given the feebleness of the Rajasthan upper order, that is a bet that has to be taken.
Wagers
Kolkata Knight Riders to beat Kings XI Punjab @ 10-11 (Various)
Mumbai Indians to beat Rajasthan Royals @ 8-11 (Stan James)
Mascarenhas to top score for Rajasthan @14-1 (William Hill)Running Total – 4.87 pts.
A frustrating rain-lashed day on which we didn’t learn much, but still managed to finish ahead. Kolkata won thanks partially to Mr Duckworth and Mr Lewis, but mainly due to some stupendous hitting from Chris Gayle and a few swings of Brendon McCullum’s blade. Once again, Kings XI did reasonably well with the bat, the experiment of promoting Irfan Pathan a definite success and though they struggled when Ganguly and Henriques took the pace off the ball, 158 wasn’t a bad score.
Unfortunately, as we already know, they have no bowlers. Even Darren Gough has noticed this and though the likes of Pathan, ‘chubby’ Yusuf Abdulla and the bustling Vikramjeet Malik did their best, their best wasn’t good enough against Gayle and McCullum, even with conditions in their favour. Chawla was their only bowling bright spot, continuing the fine record of spinners in this tournament.
On the subject of conditions, we now know enough, I think, to sum up the three pitches used thus far. Durban looked to have plenty of bounce, variable at times and offered some help for the seamers but was not particularly quick. Cape Town is like Durban without the bounce. Port Elizabeth is the quickest of the three, the ball coming on quite nicely and also offering something for the spinners.
It’s back to Cape Town tomorrow and a day night affair which means you could do worse than just lump on the team batting first. But that kind of thing makes for a short discussion. Instead, I would suggest backing Deccan Chargers against KP’s Royal Challengers. Bangalore’s bowlers will be more effective back in these conditions, but they need to sort their batting line-up out.
But Deccan looked very impressive, organised and alert in the field and I would give them the edge in the batting, with Gibbs, Gilchrist and Laxman all getting in the runs against Kolkata and their bowling looks more dangerous than Bangalore, spearheaded by Fidel Edwards and RP ‘Swing’ Singh. (Sorry).
For top bat, it has to be Gibbs, Gibbs and more Gibbs. The man has put his personal problems behind him and is in sublime touch, loving playing in front of these crowds. You won’t get huge odds, but I’d take the 3-1 on offer in various places.
Wagers
Deccan to beat Bangalore @ 10-11 (Various)
Herschelle Gibbs to top score for Deccan @ 3-1 (Various)Running Total – 3.96 pts
http://thetwenty20punter.blogspot.com/
Deccan are looking seriously impressive (a phrase which works better if you imagine it in the voice of Michael Holding). Four bit hitters, two good opening bowlers and a decent spinner and some really sharp fielding. Sharma at extra cover and Gibbs at point form a virtually impenetrable screen. In my IPL pecking order, I’d have them up there with Mumbai, just ahead of Delhi and the steadily improving Chennai.
We’ve seen enough to Bangalore now to know that they won’t be winning the tournament. This was Pietersen’s most dominant performance as captain yet, but another big defeat won’t please him, Ray Jennings or the impatient Vijay Mallya. Having criticised Pietersen in the past, it’s only fair to give him some credit for the way he tried to lead the team today. Bangalore were really pumped up in the field, KP lead the clapping, cheering and cajoling.
Unfortunately no amount of chatter can make up for deficiencies in performance. There simply is not enough bite in the Bangalore attack. Steyn looks good, particularly at the end, but there is nothing else, even Kumble looked mortal today. And more failures for big signings Ryder and Uthappa put real pressure on the rest. If it wasn’t for Dravid, this would be a team in crisis. It remains to be seen whether Kallis can turn things around when he takes over in a week or so.
Tomorrow we have two games. First up, it’s Chennai against Delhi. Chennai are getting their gameplan together but still look a little leaden footed and need to work on rotating the strike. No batting problems for Delhi though their much-vaunted bowling looked weak against Punjab, Vettori aside. This should be a tight game. I’m leaning towards Chennai but can’t quite bring myself to trust them at Evens. A better bet is the Total Sixes market. Durban lends itself to six-hitting, perhaps it’s the extra bounce, but the ’14 and over’ option in Betfair’s total sixes market looks tempting.
Game two is Rajasthan taking on Kolkata. It is perhaps too early to write off a team as inventively lead and together as Rajasthan. But though they looked sharp in the field against Bangalore, their batting was inept. The likes of Asnodkar, Patel and Pathan are finding that wild slogging just doesn’t cut it on these wickets. Kolkata certainly have the class in their upper order, but as we saw against Deccan, if you get McCullum and Gayle early, there isn’t a lot left. Mendis has to come in sooner or later which could make an average bowling attack into a good one.
Neither of these two will be winning the tournament and the current odds in the winners market look about right. We saw that the Newlands pitch for the Deccan/Bangalore game was a lot better for batting and in the belief that Yusuf Pathan will like the surface a lot better and the Rajasthan top order remains ropey, I would be interested in the 13-2 with Corals.
Wagers
14 + Sixes in the Chennai v Delhi game with Betfair (odds unavailable at this stage)
Yusuf Pathan to top score for Rajasthan @ 13-2 (Corals.Running Total – 4.05
http://thetwenty20punter.blogspot.com/
Close but only the merest hint of cigar wafting tantalisingly under our noses. 14 sixes or more was available at 3.15 on Betfair, but after Delhi blasted 8 Chennai could only manage 5 leaving us an agonising 1 short. And Rajasthan’s collapse gave Dimi the chance to do us a favour in the top scorers market but he could only manage 27 to finish behind Yusuf Pathan, who was the pick in Rajasthan’s last game. Oh well.
Some good cricket played today, with Chennai against Delhi a really hard-hitting, close encounter. The continued absence of McGrath is a huge worry for Delhi, but in notching up a second win without him, they are putting themselves in a strong position. And the likes of Nannes, Sangwan and Nehra probably bowled better today than they had in more helpful conditions against Punjab.
Chennai meanwhile continue to be less than the sum of their parts. Lumbering and lethargic again at crucial moments, the form of Flintoff is a concern, particularly his bowling, which today was down on speed and wayward in length. Is he fully fit? Is he a tad overweight? Who knows. Chennai are not far away from being contenders, but they need to find a little extra spark in the field and intelligence with bat and ball.
Bangalore against Punjab tomorrow is a battle of the losers, which Bangalore should win, thanks to the acute weakness of the Punjab bowling. They are a solid bet at Evens. For top bat, I’ll give Ravi Bopara a chance. He has played the anchor role in both games so far, but looks like he is itching to play a more expansive game and is worth backing.
Wagers
Bangalore to beat Punjab @ Evens (Totesport)
Ravi Bopara to top score for Punjab @ 4-1 (Various)Running Total: – 6.05 pts
apologies for interupting Andrew but you tipped up Yusuf Pathan to top score at 13/2 for the Royals yesterday!
Blimey! You’re right.
I had it in my head that I’d tipped Mascarenhas. Reason being I had done, but on the Betfair site. And with Bopara top scoring today, my profit and loss looks a little healthier.
Running Total: + 4.45pts
Well now, I have a confession to make. I’m not actually doing as badly as I thought. Yesterday I erroneously stated that I had backed Dimitri Mascarenhas in Thursday’s top Rajasthan batsman market. It has been pointed out to me that in fact I tipped Yusuf Pathan. Who did indeed top score. Oops! In fact, I had tipped Mascarenhas in a previous article. So a small loss has been converted to a small profit, thanks also to the efforts of Mr Ravi Bopara.
I didn’t see today’s cricket so am unable to comment upon it, other than to say that KP can’t be too much in love with the notion of captaincy right now. Still, he can hand it all over to Jacques in a few days, no doubt to the delight of the portly South African. There you go, mate, see what you can do with that. Bottom of the table. Cheers, KP.
Tomorrow’s first clash is so mouthwatering that it goes beyond mouthwatering and enters the realms of mere unrestrained salivating. Mumbai against Deccan. Both teams have hard-hitting, in-form batsmen, quality bowling and nippy fielding. Neither should be odds against and since there is just a sniff of that around for Deccan, I will take it. And Rohit Sharma looked to be coming into such good form that he is irresistible as top bat for Deccan, whilst Jayasuriya should relish piling into the high Kingsmead bounce.
Chennai versus Kolkata isn’t quite so enticing and the gold-helmeted ones will probably still be reeling from Thursday’s Super Over slump. The match odds look about right but I will be backing MS Dhoni to be top Chennai batsman, purely on price as 6-1 is too high.
Wagers
Deccan to beat Mumbai @ 11-10 (Extrabet)
Rohit Sharma to top score for Deccan @ 4-1 (Various)
Jayasuriya to top score for Mumbai @ 3-1 (Various)
MS Dhoni to top score for Chennai @ 6-1 (Stan James)Running Total: + 4.45 pts
http://thetwenty20punter.blogspot.com/
Well, disappointment that the Chennai versus Kolkata game was rained off but we were treated to another close encounter earlier in the day, with Deccan overcoming Mumbai. As we suspected, two evenly matched teams, though I felt Mumbai took it just a little too slowly in their chase. They may need to be a tad more dynamic early on to take the pressure off later. Still, both of these teams will surely be in the semis.
Bangalore against Delhi should be a one-sided affair and given the current state of the Challengers batting, only Dravid appeals as top bat. The 4-7 about a Delhi victory is surely safe, but at slightly better odds, the 8-11 about their having the top six over score should be equally secure.
Rajasthan are an absolute must back against Punjab. The Kings XI are one of those teams you just have to oppose, because for some reason they always appear to be overestimated. They had the better of conditions against Bangalore, who are in any case a poor team and the 10-11 about a Rajasthan win looks very tempting. And with Yusuf Pathan in such good touch, the 13-2 about him being top scorer has to be taken once again.
Wagers
Dravid to top score for Bangalore @ 5-1 (Various)
Delhi to have the highest six over total @ 8-11 (Various)
Rajasthan to beat Punjab @ 10-11 (Various)
Yusuf Pathan to top score for Rajasthan @ 13-2 (Corals)Running Total: + 3.55 pts
It’s gone a bit quiet on this thread, Andrew, have you come to the same conclusion as I, that the novelty is wearing off and interest is dwindling??
Colin
Hi Colin
Novelty hasn’t worn off for me yet, I’m still watching as much of the IPL as I can – but I’ve been fortunate enough to get some work for Cricinfo in the last couple of weeks and something had to give – the Twenty20 betting blog being the first to go.
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