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Sam Thomas gave Denman what can only be described as a brilliant ride at Cheltenham.
Granted the horse turned out to be much straighter than they thought but Sam’s symapthetic handling resulted in the horse beating all but Kauto Star.
Amazingly he is around evens with Betfair which is probably down to the fact Aintree is supposidly an easy track.
The truth is it is anything but easy. Hold up horses like Exotic Dancer can find themselves in trouble round there very easily and with Denman forcing the pace I wouldn’t back Jonjo’s with bad money.
I will be amazed if NTD sends Imperial Commander for this. He surely knows the time of day and learned enough from the King George to know he simply won’t get 3m1f and it will be a waste of time sending him.
I can’t see anything getting within 10 lengths of Denman. Despite what Betfair and others may think, I’m convinced he’ll love the course.
If he goes to post I can see this resulting in one of his easiest victories of his career to date.
Knocking bet <!– s:wink: –>
<!– s:wink: –>Not convinced that this track, on this ground will play to his strengths and, under the prevailing conditions, a lay.
Oh, the joys of racing!
Another top jumping race to divide opinion.
At Evns, I’d be tempted to stick Denman in a few doubles/L15’s.
If he is nearer 1/2 on the day I may have a nibble on Naccarat whos seems to still be improving, is a wicked jumper and will like the ground/trip.
I don’t fancy Exotic Dancer, he usually loses – end of.
Zip
I think Denman done more than enough in the Gold Cup to suggest he should win this regardless of track/ground.
Anything evens or odds against is a great bet.
The track and ground conditions would be a concern.
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I reckon the main worry would be how much restraint they ride him with,if they let him go about 5 out i think he will hammer them. If they hold onto him too long to look after him he may be caught flat footed on a track like aintree.
Why the concern about conditions. The ground looks like being good and the only other possibility would be a downpour turning it into a glue pot which wouldn’t be of any concern to the Tank.
Let’s not fall into the Binocular won’t get up the hill trap and start thinking Denman wobn’t act on the course.
Newbury is as flat as they come and I doubt if it’s much stiffer than Aintree.
Kempton and Aintree have this reputation of being easy but all these two mile horse who try and get 3 miles all seem to fail miserably.
Denman isn’t just a Cheltenham horse. In fact I don’t think he appreciates the hill one bit. Doesn’t exactly fly up it like a rocket.
Denman always travels well in his races and can keep up with the pace without much fuss…then boom!!! he ups the tempo and within a couple of fences good horses are in trouble. I don’t see Aintree making an ounce of difference to him if he is on song. Any track anywhere the horse is a beast and doesn’t take prisoners.
The evens was there because the bookies are thinking Kempton and hoping Aintree won’t suit him. I think they are going to regret it big time.
The track and ground conditions would be a concern.
Good ground no worries! The track? it’s got grass and fences and Denman won’t bat an eylid. He’ll probaly think "looks a bit like Newbury this, thank fook no big hill to climb"
Thought you would have got stuck right in mate?
The track and ground conditions would be a concern.
Good ground no worries! The track? it’s got grass and fences and Denman won’t bat an eylid. He’ll probaly think "looks a bit like Newbury this, thank fook no big hill to climb"
Thought you would have got stuck right in mate?
I am a cautious man by nature, ‘A’ , and as much as I adore the big fella, the niggling doubt still remains that he will find it difficult to re-produce last season’s form. Kempton’s run is still fresh in my mind. I know he put up a fine display in the Gold Cup, which rather negates my concerns, but if he ground is good and hooves are rattling, and something is prepared to take him on, then the sharp turns might upset his natural rhythm. That said, if the price is right … well, I may throw a few bawbees in the tanks direction.
I won’t be taking any odds on though – not on this occasion. If the race was at Newbury ( flat but different to Aintree’s mildmay course, imo), then yes, in all probability I’d chance my arm, as he loves it round there.
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I’m not sure denman is backable in this. If he drifts then I don’t want to know him and if he’s supported he will be too short. An early double is the only option I guess but at this stage I see no certainty to double him with.
and something is prepared to take him on
I don’t even think Denman will lead- IMO that privilege will go to Nacarat.
Also, a little question for any ‘bounce’ theorists out there; given Denman most likely wasn’t anywhere near race-fit at Kempton, would he still be eligible for the bounce as the GC was effectively his first run, or is it strictly a second-run thing?
I don’t even think Denman will lead- IMO that privilege will go to Nacarat.quote]
Was just about to say that, I think if he runs Nacarat will lead, and twice we have seen what happens if they let it happen, hopefully a nice e/w price and he’ll carry my money
Nacarat will lead imo along with Our Vic(would love to see a return to form,but unf. i think hes going the same way as My Way DS).If and when Denmans gets alongside them(hopefully about 4 or 5 out) he will run away with it while being chased in vain by Exotic Dancer(bridesmaid as usual).
ps MDB could be interesting back on a flat track.
Also, a little question for any ‘bounce’ theorists out there; given Denman most likely wasn’t anywhere near race-fit at Kempton, would he still be eligible for the bounce as the GC was effectively his first run, or is it strictly a second-run thing?
An interesting thought Friggo and one that had crossed my mind. A major health problem for the horse, a low-key performance at Kempton, followed by a major step-up at Cheltenham – I’d have real concerns about his ability to replicate that run.
Denman isn’t just a Cheltenham horse. In fact I don’t think he appreciates the hill one bit. Doesn’t exactly fly up it like a rocket.
That one takes the biscuit, Denman won the RSA up that hill, He won the Gold Cup up that hill,in fact he"s been up that hill half a dozen times,
more times than any other course he has set foot on!! How many Gold cup winners have flown up it like a rocket then Fist?Dont forget the ground will be fresh and they only ran one chase on it at the November meeting.
I think Denman will be suited by this course, will be in the front three until maybe they pass the 2m start and then on the way to the ditch in the straight Sam will probably let him go on and make them all cry off.
Just to see him in the flesh is a privellage and i cannot wait to see this giant of a Chaser go round Aintree.
Dont forget the ground will be fresh and they only ran one chase on it at the November meeting.
I think Denman will be suited by this course, will be in the front three until maybe they pass the 2m start and then on the way to the ditch in the straight Sam will probably let him go on and make them all cry off.
Just to see him in the flesh is a privellage and i cannot wait to see this giant of a Chaser go round Aintree.
Agree with every word.
A good lead for 2.5 miles and I expect him to put the rest to bed soon afterwards.
He’s the main reason I’ll be in attendence but it looks a great card all round.
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