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It’s not about ratings with a horse like Tidal Bay, it’s about identifying potential.
Spot on. Its the biggest weakness with ratings, they cannot quantify improvement.
I don’t see how you can divorce the pair, Cav – ratings and potential – they go hand-in-hand as far as I’m concerned.
The problem with ‘potential’ is that it isn’t really quantifiable – you can never really tell in advance how much (in lbs) a horse will improve/regress from one run to the next.
The best you can do in Tidal Bay’s case is start with a rating for him, add on a number of lbs for ‘potential improvement’ and the end result is the forecast mark you think he will run to. If that mark happens to be close to Master Minded’s rating, then I’d say that you are perfectly entitled to back Tidal Bay at current odds.
I just happen to think that TB needs an abnormal amount of improvement at this stage in his chasing career, to get close to Master Minded. I think he needs to find somewhere between 10-16lbs – depending on my mood, and how I read the CC form on a given day.
It’s not an impossible gap to bridge, but it’s difficult enough, and for me it’s very hard to be confident about it happening, in advance of the race.
I agree with you Grasshopper, but in that scenario the ability of the ratee is probably more important than the rating itself. Ratings are more about interpretation a lot of the time. Following the raw rating in TB’s case would of course lead you down a bit of a blind alley.
For what its worth I’ve thought TB was top class after his novice chase at Cheltenham. The pace he displayed between his fences that day was unusual to say the least. But I reckon MM is very top drawer as well. His winning time in the QM is proof of that for me anyway. Their is a lot of talk about improvement from the TB camp, it needs to be bourne in mind MM is only 6 and hasnt run 10 races yet.
Two superb horses and a race to savour, the market has it right imo.
Grass
As impressive as Master Minded was at Cheltenham that run is head and shoulders above anything else he has produced. I would like to see him produce something close to that again before going overboard with him. He went into Cheltenham on a rating of 170 after beating VPU 5 lengths getting six pounds. Tidal Bay has never been out of the first two and has been beaten more than a length only once in his career. If Master Minded can beat Tidal Bay by 5 lengths or more then I will be impressed however on the balance of their form I can’t see a 10-16lbs difference between them as you indicate
aaronizneez………..how far could MM have won at Newbury if he had been shaken-up? Same at Cheltenham.
The progress that everyone is taking for granted in Tidal Bay, is the exact same kind of progress that MM showed from Newbury to Cheltenham, is it not?
It’s not like MM was thoroughly exposed before and after the Game Sprit, and that the Champion Chase performance was therefore 100% bogus.
aaronizneez………..how far could MM have won at Newbury if he had been shaken-up? Same at Cheltenham.
I dont know that Grasshopper, but neither does anyone else. He seemed to me he went straight from the bridle to knowhere at Aintree.
The progress that everyone is taking for granted in Tidal Bay, is the exact same kind of progress that MM showed from Newbury to Cheltenham, is it not?
My point would be is that Tidal Bay would not need to progress your 10-16lbs as stated as I don’t think there is not that much difference in the first place
It’s not like MM was thoroughly exposed before and after the Game Sprit, and that the Champion Chase performance was therefore 100% bogus.
True, however the yardstick as such is VPU
Master Minded could win in a hack canter on Saturday and I would be the first to say that its Champion Chase run was therefore a performance rarely seen these days but as I previously stated I would want to see it again before doing so. A question for you, what rating would you give Tidal Bay if he happened to win on Saturday with the rest well beaten ?[/b]
Can’t possibly answer that question until after the race, aaronizneez.
I repeat that I’m agnostic about both horses – I’m only responding with my view that Master Minded might be being under-rated by some on the strength of his Aintree performance, which I don’t think has all that much relevance in terms of his known form over 2m.
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Very true Grassy.
Some assume that Aintree’s sharp 2.5m should be well within the scope of a Champion 2 miler. It isn’t always; as a glance at the form of such as Well Chief and Rooster Booster will verify.Can’t possibly answer that question until after the race, aaronizneez.
I repeat that I’m agnostic about both horses – I’m only responding with my view that Master Minded might be being under-rated by some on the strength of his Aintree performance, which I don’t think has all that much relevance in terms of his known form over 2m.
Agnostic.
I like that word. The definition is ‘a person who believes that the existence of God is not proveable.’
I too am agnostic about Saturdays race.But once it has taken place I will
accept that the winner is the God of the current 2mile Chase division, evn if it is **** at the moment..Who it will be I really don’t know.What I do know is this is the most enthralling race of the Jumps season to date and any enthusiast should not miss it.
Unless of course they have a personal meeting with the real Almighty otherwise known as Alex Ferguson..
We´re also forgetting that Master Minded was stopped in his tracks at the second last at Aintree. If the same thing had happened to Tidal Bay at Aintree there´s no doubt in my mind that he too would have been beaten.
Master Minded seems to have lost his lustre in these parts….
Perhpas wer’e all waiting for a Queen Mother repeat, apart from those that have backed TB?
I’m not sure this race will prove which beast is better…Aintree over 2m 4f did not show VPU is better than MM?
I really don’t think the Tingle Crek is TB’s cup of tea. Now, if they both raced over 2m 4f – that would be interesting
I think Fiepes Shuffle can run a big race, he went off very fast last time on his previous visit.
I wonder if MM will take him on for the lead? I don’t think so.
I think it could be MM beating FS, with Tidal Bay running an hounourable/rusty thrid.
Howard Johnson is giving it a go – good luck to them, in it to win it etccan’t be afraid of one horse. (Holy cliches! Batman)
I am sure they have higher hopes for the King George.
I think MM will put up a breath taking perofmance of jumping and acceleration.
Looking forward to the opinions flying around after the race as much as the race itself
Zip
Oh, and I deffo think MM’s poor show at Aintree affected his price for Saturday. Delete that performance and he would surely be at least 1/2.
I was at Aintree last year and Tidal Bay was extremely impressive.
MM may well leave him a bit for toe at some point during the race but this fella will not give up and i’m not convinced if that MM will want to know if he comes back upsides. In fact if they are still together jumping the last there will only be one winner. Much like his stablemate Inglis Drever he is tough as old boots.
i’m not convinced if that MM will want to know if he comes back upsides
Ive got to ask, on what basis? Hes not been in an actual battle to the line (with Nichols anyway) so how do we know that he wont?
I think Fiepes Shuffle can run a big race, he went off very fast last time on his previous visit.
I wonder if MM will take him on for the lead? I don’t think so.
I think it could be MM beating FS, with Tidal Bay running an hounourable/rusty thrid.
At LAST!!! Someone who thinks our Flipper has a chance!! Honourable mentions to Mr. Zip!!!
To be honest, we would be delighted with third. There’s only 7 in the race, and prize money for 6th, so we’ve got to give it a go. I’ll be in the parade ring with Jamie, and we’ll discuss tactics and see how things go. The ground might be slightly soft for him – he doesn’t mind it, but it was soft at Baden-Baden last time out, and he just got home. Certainly soft wouldn’t be a problem over 1 1/2 miles, but as far as I’m aware, the BHA don’t have any plans for chases of that distance!!!
Just a warning to any fellow TRFers who’ll be there, if you see a fat balding 40 something sweating like Overdose despite sub zero temperatures screaming down a mobile phone in German – that’ll be me then!!
I may also be naked as my suit isn’t back from the dry cleaners yet, but I’m sure I’ll find something to cover up my modesty!!!Darren – AngloGerman
________________________________________‘The Hungarian’s going hell for leather’ – Jim McGrath
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