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Was Tidal Bay’s best round of jumping not when encountering a fast pace at Cheltenham? His jumping or ability to prove fully effective at 2m really aren’t issues for me.
So you didnt see the previous Doncaster race? He was awful in that. Maybe it has been ironed out but a tough quick few fences could expose problems once again
For what its worth, the standard time was quicker at Doncaster than Cheltenham (although im not a slave to these things) indictaing that the pace there wasnt slow
Many still look at him and think of Cheltenham. How can a horse, beaten 18L on his last start, be an odds-on shot against a talented horse like Tidal Bay?
Didnt he make a momentum stopping mistake at Aintree ? Either way, I would always be reluctant to put aintree form on a par with cheltenham especially when we know which race his main aim was. Wasnt Aintree a bit of an afterthought anyway?
Many still look at him and think of Cheltenham. How can a horse, beaten 18L on his last start, be an odds-on shot against a talented horse like Tidal Bay?
Didnt he make a momentum stopping mistake at Aintree ? Either way, I would always be reluctant to put aintree form on a par with cheltenham especially when we know which race his main aim was. Wasnt Aintree a bit of an afterthought anyway?
Didn’t stop Tidal Bay doing the Cheltenham / Aintree double.
His price is a reflection of his Cheltenham romp.
Quite simply, you are wrong, BOS.
A horse rated 185, who won the Champion Chase by 19L hard-held, would be long odds-on against an (albeit decent) Arkle winner.
The race at Aintree has taken some of the sheen off that Festival performance, it is that race to which everyone refers to when it’s said that he now has questions to answer, and it’s that race which makes him a 4/6 chance – not the Champion Chase.
Bos, if Master Minded hadn’t run at Aintree, he would be about a 3’s-on chance on Saturday.
His current odds are a reflection of that run – not his Cheltenham effort.
Actually I don’t think Desert Orchid, Tingle Creek or Flyingbolt at their prime would justify 3s-on in this race simply because Tidal Bay is a particularly hot example of that difficult entity to quantify: the promising, progressive and unexposed horse; and unexposed at 160+ to boot.
I do agree that had MM not run at Aintree then the layers would have put him up shorter. The ‘poor run lto’ scenario often provides value nto, but not in this case…
…or at least that’s what I choose to believe
Bos, I think the form Master Minded showed at Newbury would see off Tidal Bay.
Colin
His price is a reflection of his Cheltenham romp.
Quite simply, you are wrong, BOS.
A horse rated 185, who won the Champion Chase by 19L hard-held, would be long odds-on against an (albeit decent) Arkle winner.
The race at Aintree has taken some of the sheen off that Festival performance, it is that race to which everyone refers to when it’s said that he now has questions to answer, and it’s that race which makes him a 4/6 chance – not the Champion Chase.
We have a difference of opinion, Grass. No problem.
As for my arguements against Master Minded’s form lacking coherency. Not entirely true.
If Master Minded is as good as what we witnessed at Cheltenham, he wins. If that form, for aforementioned reasons, is exaggerated, Tidal Bay is in with a huge shout.
I’d rather judge MM on four of his five efforts in this country and Arkle winner Tidal Bay on six of his seven victories over fences in fifteen career starts, never finishing outside the first two.
Simple. We’ll have more answers by 14.45 on Saturday.
Firefox, on what piece of form does Tidal Bay have it "in his armoury" to serve it up to Master Minded?
Anyone looking to oppose MM is hoping for (and, it’s true, could reasonably expect) plenty of improvement in the Wylie horse, from his novice season. But improve is what he will have to do, if Master Minded runs up to anything like his best form.
I am fairly agnostic about both horses, to be perfectly honest, and have already acknowledged that a 185 rating for Master Minded is a swiss-cheese. However, I’ve yet to hear supporters of Tidal Bay pass comment on his Arkle form, which is starting to look a whole lot less than bullet-proof – insofar as a championship race over 2m is concerned – than it looked at the time.
Like Bos says, we’ll know a whole lot more about both horses after Saturday.
Was Tidal Bay’s best round of jumping not when encountering a fast pace at Cheltenham? His jumping or ability to prove fully effective at 2m really aren’t issues for me.
So you didnt see the previous Doncaster race? He was awful in that. Maybe it has been ironed out but a tough quick few fences could expose problems once again
For what its worth, the standard time was quicker at Doncaster than Cheltenham (although im not a slave to these things) indictaing that the pace there wasnt slow
Perhaps making his own running didn’t suit, I don’t know, but for me his jumping came through with flying colours when put to the test at Cheltenham. Regarding the time comparisons, the relation to standard would be even more ground dependant (good at Doncaster, soft at Cheltenham) than pace influenced.
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Was Tidal Bay’s best round of jumping not when encountering a fast pace at Cheltenham? His jumping or ability to prove fully effective at 2m really aren’t issues for me.
So you didnt see the previous Doncaster race? He was awful in that. Maybe it has been ironed out but a tough quick few fences could expose problems once again
For what its worth, the standard time was quicker at Doncaster than Cheltenham (although im not a slave to these things) indictaing that the pace there wasnt slow
The ground at Doncaster was appreciably quicker than Cheltenham.
Difficult to ignore how, on that ground and off a steady early pace, Tidal Bay had to be ridden for the full length of the Doncaster straight against a horse much his inferior, Or how he jumped under the circumstances.
I still maintain he needs further to be seen at his best, his King George entry suggests I mightn’t be the only one.By that logic reet, what do you make of the fact that he’s DECLARED for the Tingle Creek.
- Total Posts 17716
By that logic reet, what do you make of the fact that he’s DECLARED for the Tingle Creek.
Hardly unusual to run a horse over too short a trip in its formative races. is it DJ?
I think firefox’s argument about MM jumping holds some water.
I also like the theory about MM being taken on in running.This is a good race for the trainer Howard Johnson to find out if Tidal Bay can compete at the very highest level at this 2m trip.
The Arkle victory has suggested he might get away with it at 2m.
But the trainer has always felt this horse would be suited by two and a half stroke three miles.I think the King George is the principal target that was outlined for the horse by his connections pre season.
This race fits nicely into that schedule.
I am a big fan of Tidal Bay.
I think he might just be able to pull it off on reasonable ground.I am perplexed by the rating MM was afforded by a lazy handicapper.
But that doesn’t stop him being a very good 2miler.
For me it is not a betting contest at the prices.Didn’t stop Tidal Bay doing the Cheltenham / Aintree double.
Yeah, against a far more moderate bunch, IMO Tidal Bay hasnt even shown sufficient form to suggest he could have beaten Voy Por at Cheltenham or Aintree or even at Newbury.
Bos, you have said that Master Minded looked beatable on 4 of his five starts, yet wasnt he progressive, the horse didnt arrive at the nicholls stable as a 186 rated horse, Nicholls built him up and the horse kept improving. You have asked how could master minded have beaten VPU at newbury by a much lesser margin than at Cheltenham but the horse was improving. Master minded beat VPU at cheltenham far easier than Tidal Bay beat Krugaroyova.
Master Minded Vs Tidal Bay is IMO a case of a 180ish 5yo taking on a potentially 160ish 7yo. I generally never fancy a lesser older horse to beat a better younger horse, but its horse racing and as masterminded showed at aintree, a mistake can cost you a race (arguably that is, as not everyone saw it that way).
Bulwark
Tidal Bay will need to improve on what he’s achieved over fences thus far to beat Master Minded. However, I don’t think MM has ever encountered anything quite like this chap before, so he’ll need to be at the top of his game.
It’s not about what Tidal Bay has beat, it’s the manner in which he’s done it. He hasn’t beaten the best over fences because he hasn’t been given the opportunity to do so, the same applies to those that he’s defeated.
Noland, for example, is favourite for the John Durkan Memorial and Takeroc was unbeaten over fences prior to Aintree and ran a fine race behind Chomba Womba over hurdles recently, with Katchit in third. Either of them could be anything.
His respective efforts at Cheltenham and Aintree were both very impressive and, regardless of what he beat, it takes a tough and talented horse to win at both venues after a long season.
It’s not about ratings with a horse like Tidal Bay, it’s about identifying potential. I knew he would be a tough nut to crack in the Arkle after his defeat at Doncaster. After observing his two victories at the end of last season, I just got the feeling there’s a great deal more to call on if needed.
We’ll see what he’s capable of on Saturday and we’ll know far more about MM, too. Is he ‘just’ a very good horse, or a superstar? That’s been my argument about the prospect of Tidal Bay beating him.
I like Clive Smith’s horse a great deal and, if I’m honest, I couldn’t see him getting beat until the past few days. My belief that Tidal Bay could push him close and defeat him has been getting stronger all week and I’m just going to give him the verdict. It’s pivotal that he handles Sandown, though. If he’s jumping and travelling, you’ll know if he’s in with a shout at halfway because he’s got a great engine and won’t shirk a fight.
If MM does come out on top and Tidal Bay gets within 5 or 6L of him, then it will be interesting to see what route they take with him if he goes to Kempton and runs another solid race. I’d expect Tidal Bay to improve around Cheltenham, a course that suits him, and it’s quite possible he could exact any revenge around there.
Queen Mother, Ryanair or Gold Cup? We will know more about him on Saturday, but still be none the wiser about his long term target! Two fascinating horses in a fascinating race. My advice – just don’t miss it.
At this moment I would imagine Howard J has no real fixed plan other than Saturday for Tidal Bay. He is a very good position win or lose as long as long as the horse runs well.
If he can at least make Master Minded pull out all the stops his King George entry will be justifiedand no doubt he will head there.
Some are questioning his form to date but how many horses leave old form way behind on their way to better things?
Let’s not forget, although just out of the novice class, Tidal Bay is a 7 year old taking on a 5 year old. Master Minded is no ordinary 5 year old granted, but Tidal Bay has loads more racing experince.
In a sense they are pretty evenly matched and excuses of the above nature shouldn’t really come into it. The QMCC had no Moscow Flyers or
Azertyuiop in it. It was such a desperate affair who’s to say had Tiday Bay ran in it instead of Master Minded that his Arkle form wouldn’t have been good enough to win it?
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