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Master Minded is the most overrated horse in training, bar none, and will be beaten by Tidal Bay, regardless of who rides him
Master Minded is the most overrated horse in training, bar none, and will be beaten by Tidal Bay, regardless of who rides him
The first part of that is certainly true and I’d like to think that Tidal Bay will win as I’m a huge fan and ante post supporter of his.
I assume you’ve had no say in making Corals market for the race, TDK, given MM is a 4/6 chance? I do note, however, your mob are biggest at that price.
No chance you can shove him out to 11/10, no?
I had some say, Mr Hopper
4/6 is the price but only because we can lay it at that price – I wouldn’t back it at evens personally (all risk free trading aside). I can’t take the Champion Chase seriously as a race – 2 of the 4 possible winners were beaten after a fence, so you are rating the whole thing around the remarkably unremarkable Voy Por Ustedes – the horse that aomehow managed to beat this wonderhorse at Aintree.
If MM is a 185 horse then I’m a Dutchman.
I tend to agree with you as far as Master Minded’s OR is concerned, TDK, and equally so about the remarkably unremarkable VPU.
But even a modest assessment of the Champion Chase form puts Master Minded firmly in the mid 170’s bracket, doesn’t it? Tidal Bay, promising as he is, has a ways to go before he reaches that kind of level, and when I look back to his Cheltenham and Aintree wins, I don’t see too many of his opponents upholding the form of either race.
I still reckon Master Minded is a good thing myself.
With all the hype surrounding MM we all know what the Gods have deigned to happen. Card abandoned due to frost, snow or waterlogging. Failing that, a first fence fall will be the ultimate irony.
HERE here Ken, either that or Twist Magic ridden by Sam wins again! if i could only have 3 wishes!
Or MM gets beat fair and square and PN says "I was going to blame AP and say he doesn’t know the horse as well as Ruby but I’ve used that one already"
I for one would like to see Tidal Bay win the Tingle Creek as he is a horse with huge potential. However, I still think MM will spank Tidal Bay by 5-10 lengths on Saturday. The 186 rating is a bit much imo but MM ‘should’ be too good for this field if he is on form this weekend. Tidal Bay does have a chance of course but I feel he’ll be better suited in the King George.
6/4 M the day he won. The speedies got 5/2 would you believe?
Are you referring to MM in the Champion Chase?
If so his SP was 3/1 (drifted) and some ‘speedies’ or rather ‘slowies’ got near 7/2 on the exchanges.
It all depends on the prices (and going) come Saturday but as things stand, like you, I’d want to oppose MM with Tidal Bay, though haven’t looked at others in the field yet who shouldn’t be discounted of course.
I have a suspicion MM’s a short runner, as was evident over 20f at Aintree, but also over the stiffish 16f (made more so by the effort required over the railway fences not just the course’s topography) of a soft ground Sandown, while it should suit TB well.
I don’t believe just because MM recorded a good time and ‘came up the hill’ smoothly at Cheltenham that can be used as unequivocal evidence he gets 2m well as he wasn’t tested in the closing stages having come a long way clear of the field
I’m not surewhat MDeering was referring to but to put the record staright I took 11/4 about MM for the 2008 QMCC.
My understanding of his post he is he thinks MM was odds on for the 2009 QMCC which was not the case right after he won the 2008 race.
Someone offered 5/2 who? I don’t remember but I got 6/4 about Master Minded for the 2009 renewal of the QMCC
Hope that clears it up for you………class dismissed
I don’t believe just because MM recorded a good time and ‘came up the hill’ smoothly at Cheltenham that can be used as unequivocal evidence he gets 2m well as he wasn’t tested in the closing stages having come a long way clear of the field
But what about when Master Minded hacked-up at Newbury, Drone? Is that piece of form to be dismissed also?
I’m of a mind that people are looking for any way to get the Nicholls horse beat this weekend, for reasons I can’t quite figure out. Despite the question marks about exactly how much he achieved in winning at Cheltenham, Master Minded’s form in both the Game Spirit and the Champion Chase, stands a lot more scrutiny than Tidal Bay’s Arkle form.
I’m not suggesting that people fill their boots at 4/6, but I do think people are ignoring the obvious here.
I tend to agree with you as far as Master Minded’s OR is concerned, TDK, and equally so about the remarkably unremarkable VPU.
But even a modest assessment of the Champion Chase form puts Master Minded firmly in the mid 170’s bracket, doesn’t it? Tidal Bay, promising as he is, has a ways to go before he reaches that kind of level, and when I look back to his Cheltenham and Aintree wins, I don’t see too many of his opponents upholding the form of either race.
I still reckon Master Minded is a good thing myself.
It always happens with the top novices though – they never have the ratings coming into their second season to beat the established chasers (partly I believe because most people overrate the form of the championship races at the festival as a matter of course) We could and probably did have exactly the same argument last year with Denman – novice form not that great, has holes in it, needs to improve a stone to compete blah de blah…
While I am not suggesting Tidal Bay is as good as Denman, I’d be very surprised and disappointed if he didn’t have enough ability to give Voy Por Ustedes a hiding – and that puts him firmly in the frame with Master Minded.
I don’t believe just because MM recorded a good time and ‘came up the hill’ smoothly at Cheltenham that can be used as unequivocal evidence he gets 2m well as he wasn’t tested in the closing stages having come a long way clear of the field
But what about when Master Minded hacked-up at Newbury, Drone? Is that piece of form to be dismissed also?
I’m of a mind that people are looking for any way to get the Nicholls horse beat this weekend, for reasons I can’t quite figure out. Despite the question marks about exactly how much he achieved in winning at Cheltenham, Master Minded’s form in both the Game Spirit and the Champion Chase, stands a lot more scrutiny than Tidal Bay’s Arkle form.
I’m not suggesting that people fill their boots at 4/6, but I do think people are ignoring the obvious here.
The thing about Newbury was he beat none other than VPU infact his entire rating is based arond VPU whch is probably the most unreliable form you could use.
I for one don’t want to see him losing as nothing would please me more than see him rise beyond heights and becme the greatest 2 miler of all time.
It is the combination of what he has beaten and the extremely poor show he put up at Aintree that has me doubting the merits of his QMCC win and wondering if he is anywhere near as good as we thought.
You simply can’t put Aintree down to distance alone there was more to it than that and there might just be a bigger kinkin his armor than we know a present.
I’ve backed Tidal Bay to beat him on Saturday and I am confident he will. But I’ve been wrong in the past and will be wrong again and deep down I am hoping I am very wrong this time.
Whilst its true that the rating is based around VPU, why do you think hes "unreliable" Fist?
No excuses were offered by King for the way he was beaten at Cheltenham and there was (as far as i can recall) no suggestion that he hadnt run up to his best
There is a lot of faith here that Tidal Bay will handle the Railway fences but een his trainer has expressed a slight doubt about that
I’m not surewhat MDeering was referring to but to put the record staright I took 11/4 about MM for the 2008 QMCC.
My understanding of his post he is he thinks MM was odds on for the 2009 QMCC which was not the case right after he won the 2008 race.
Someone offered 5/2 who? I don’t remember but I got 6/4 about Master Minded for the 2009 renewal of the QMCC
Apologies Fister, I was guilty of a late-should-be-in-bed skimming over of your post. Refreshed this a.m it’s clear you’re referring to the ante-post prices for the forthcoming CC
GH,
On the face of it the Game Spirit win, and his Tingle Creek CD win in a handicap wouldn’t have many question his stamina. All I can say is that I have no more than an intuitive feeling he may be a short runner when tested by the genuinely top-class opponent TB promises to be. Equally this is TB’s sternest test to date, which is why it’s such an intriguing race.
I have yet to compile a tissue for this race nor have I formed an opinion on likely shape and pace but gut-feeling is to oppose MM at odds-on even though it is highly likely I will make him favourite for the race
I may bore you all St.Ginger-of-the-percentages style by putting up an odds-line on Friday evening
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