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The so called Bounce Factor

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  • #315
    madman marz
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    • Total Posts 707

    The Bounce Factor holds about as much water as a Bedouins parched tongue.<br>Unless anyone can come up with some conclusive scientific proof that there is any basis to it, its a statement that should be banished into the annals of horse racing history. Lets be honest it would be virtually impossible to prove it scientifically.<br>Alright for the uniniated The Bounce Factor means a horse running badly on his second run back after an absence after running well on his come back.

    To me its just another excuse for a trainer to stop a horse, tell the stewards the horse bounced, explanation excepted. <br>I wonder do horses say to themselves I think i’ll bounce next time, its a load of old codswallop and it has absoluetly no basis whatsoever, it makes my blood boil when I hear trainers and hacks using the word with abandon with no idea what their actually talking about.

    #28855
    dave jay
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    • Total Posts 3386

    I think the definition of what the bounce factor actually is, is the problem.

    The bounce factor certainly does exist, its just different for each horse, IMO.

    #28856
    Stormont
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    • Total Posts 300

    I agree with Dave Jay, it certainly exists but only for certain horses.

    It all depends how long the horse gets off after a run from a long break. I would be concerned if a horse coming from a years absense and then runs again within 2weeks, but any longer is usually fine IMO.

    It all depends on the horse and training methods i think

    #28857
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    The Bounce Factor means a horse running badly on his second run back after an absence after running well on his come back.

    And what are you saying about this?

    That it doesn’t happen?

    It happens in humans.

    Do no exercise for 3 months and then play midfield in a competitive football match.    

    Then play again 3 days later. Pretty tough isn’t it? Legs are sore and heavy and you’re lacking energy.

    That’s the bounce factor.

    And it’s caused by exercising beyond your fitness and then trying to exercise before your body has recovered.

    Why would this not happen in horses?

    The bounce factor is real but, as DJ and Stormont said, whether it happens depends on the horse and the trainer.

    Steve

    #28858
    madman marz
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    • Total Posts 707

    Horses are usually given a lot more time off than 3 days to recover from a race Steve, a horse should be 100% fit everytime that he runs, if a trainer says after one of his horses runs poorly that he was’nt 100% I left a bit of work on him, it should be treated by the stewards as a non trier as the said trainer decieved the racing public ,a horse should only run if its 100%.

    Back to the bounce factor the horse is fit and ready to do himself justice first time out after his absence, all the trainer has to do is keep the horse ticking over maintaining his fitness level and the horse will do himself justice everytime. If the trainer eases off then any horse will not run up to standard next time.

    I will say it again there is no basis to it. None of your posts offered anything at all to prove it exists,  it doesnt.<br>A famous American trainer cant think of his name right now,  he threw cold water on the existence of the bounce factor.

    (Edited by madman marz at 2:10 pm on Feb. 11, 2007)

    #28859
    Aidan
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    • Total Posts 1198

    Unless anyone can come up with some conclusive scientific proof that there is any basis to it,

    I think you’ll find there has been….

    a horse should be 100% fit everytime that he runs

    Impossible to have a horse 100% fit every time he races and expect you will have a horse in decent shape at the end of the year or after a couple of seasons.

    #28860
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    Horses are usually given a lot more time off than 3 days to recover from a race Steve

    And this disproves my comments how?

    a horse should be 100% fit everytime that he runs

    But some aren’t.

    Actually, I’d like to know how, if you were a trainer, you’d get a horse 100% fit FTO for a fast run 3m handicap hurdle.

    What methods would you use?

    I will say it again there is no basis to it. None of your posts offered anything at all to prove it exists

    Feel free to disagree, but you’ve not actually addressed the reasons I gave to back up the idea of a horse "bouncing".

    A famous American trainer cant think of his name right now,  he threw cold water on the existence of the bounce factor.

    This vague and unsubstantiated comment hardly disproves "bounce".

    "Someone, but we don’t know who, said something, but we don’t know what."

    Steve

    #28861
    dave jay
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    • Total Posts 3386

    .. as you said in your first post steve, bounce factor is a physical reality that can be off-set by certain trainers.

    .. marx, what is the main difference between a fit horse and an un-fit horse, answer this question and you will know how bounce factor works.

    #28862
    madman marz
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    • Total Posts 707

    Another example guys, right the flat season proper will be starting soon most of  last years 2yr olds, 3yr olds etc will be coming back from very long layoffs will we have thousands of bounces when they run for a second time, "yeh right". Say Holy roman emperor wins guinneas goes to the Curragh a few weeks later will he bounce not a chance, because his fitness level will be kept ticking over.

    A football manager would very seldom if at all play one of his players if he wasnt 100%, its not very hard to get a horse 100% fit, and to me trainers running horses that are below 100% are actually putting them at risk of injury in my book.<br>Personally if I back a horse I sincerely hope I am backing a horse that is 100% fit to do himself and my bet justice.

    #28863
    Stormont
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    • Total Posts 300

    Unless you want to ruin a horse within a year it is almost impossible to get horses 100% fit EVERYTIME they run.

    No matter how much work they do at home there is nothing better than a race to get the fitness levels as high as they will go.

    You could do LSD and hill work until the cows come home and get the horse fit enough to win, but in 9 times out of 10 the horse won’t last more than one season, maybe two.

    This is how i see it:

    a horse comes off lets say a 400 day break. The trainer cannot get the horse 100% fit, unless they are wanting the horse to bounce or get ruined. So, if it was a trainer with any sense, he/she wouldnt do TOO much at home but he will get him into a shape where he thinks the horse might have a squeek. Whatever the horse does after this break, most of the top trainers would give the horse more time off than they usually would from a break, for it to recover. the best way of doing this and keeping the fresh is roadwork and plenty of it.

    If trainers do this there is every chance the horse won’t ‘bounce’ next time, which is why it is a good idea if they leave about a month between races.

    There are horses that are exception to the rule though. Horses that aren’t very clean winded or horses that go exceptionally well fresh. Clean winded horses take very little getting ready from a break. Then their are some that take ages to get ready…… Teofilo has been reported as a horse that takes a lot of getting ready which is why Jim Bolger is desperate to run him in a prep race for the guineas to get him spot on. Horse like that, there is nothing for the trainer to do to get them 100% fit first time after a break.

    There is a big difference not getting a horse fit enough and schooling in public. The horse will be trying its best, but when it isn’t quite fit enough its best might not be good enough.

    Horses are individuals.

    #28864
    dave jay
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    • Total Posts 3386

    .. marz a few people have given you decent pointers as to how and why bounce factor works .. instead of debating or going away and doing some research you seem to be intent on ‘shouting at the telly’ .. for reasons best known to yourself.

    #28865
    Stormont
    Member
    • Total Posts 300

    Quote: from madman marz on 2:43 pm on Feb. 11, 2007[br]Another example guys, right the flat season proper will be starting soon most of  last years 2yr olds, 3yr olds etc will be coming back from very long layoffs will we have thousands of bounces when they run for a second time, "yeh right". Say Holy roman emperor wins guinneas goes to the Curragh a few weeks later will he bounce not a chance, because his fitness level will be kept ticking over.

    A football manager would very seldom if at all play one of his players if he wasnt 100%, its not very hard to get a horse 100% fit, and to me trainers running horses that are below 100% are actually putting them at risk of injury in my book.<br>Personally if I back a horse I sincerely hope I am backing a horse that is 100% fit to do himself and my bet justice.<br>

    This tells me you know nothing about training racehorses.

    #28866
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    There is also a slight difference in a horse coming back off an injury like Well Chief and a horse like Holy Roman Emperor who has been rested purposefully through the winter but at the same time would regularly be lunged and walked throughout the winter and then back building up his campaign from Janurary on. And thats before I even mention the differences in getting a 3 year old colt fit and a 8 year old gelding….dear oh dear…

    (Edited by Aidan at 2:49 pm on Feb. 11, 2007)

    #28867
    stevedvg
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    • Total Posts 1137

    A football manager would very seldom if at all play one of his players if he wasnt 100%,

    Have you ever heard the phrase "pre-season friendly"?

    This is how most pro managers get their players 100% fit after what’s a fairly brief layoff: by playing relatively gentle (and unimportant) matches.

    After a few of those, the players are ready to step up to the proper stuff.

    Similarly, after a long lay off due to injury, a player will often be given 15 minutes in a game (sometimes in the reserves) as a sub before being asked to start a game.

    Anyway, the football analogy only goes so far and was only used to give a "human" understanding.

    The stresses of racing, particularly NH racing, take a lot more out of a fit horse than a football match takes out of a fit human.

    Steve

    #28868
    madman marz
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    • Total Posts 707

    Alright guys you made some fair enough points, but conclusive proof will and always will remain elusive.<br>I still believe it has very little basis.<br>I wonder how many non triers creeped under the noses of the stewards over the years that were put down to the bounce factor but were in fact stopped, thousands I would say. Would you not agree that it would be a very convenient excuse for unscrupulous connections.

    Dave, I shall be shouting at the telly now the rugby has started.

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